Blame the World?

Iskanje odrešenja samo v tujem povpraševanju za podhranjeno domače agregatno povpraševanje ima en zelo velik problem: vsi ne morejo hkrati izvažati, nekdo mora tudi uvažati. In še kup drugih problemov, da to v nestabilnem svetu ne omogoča solidnega okrevanja, da nastop kriz zunaj (zmanjšanje rasti BDP v ZDA, ukrajinsko – ruska kriza, zmanjševanje rasti na Kitajskem itd.) vpliva na volatilnost domačega BDP itd.

EU bo morala okrepiti lastno agregatno povpraševanje. Vendar ne na enak način kot pred sedanjo krizo, ko je Nemčija neto izvažala, ostale (periferne) članice evro območja pa neto uvažale, pač pa bo tudi Nemčija morala začeti več uvažati in zmanjšati svoj sedanji rekordni zunanjetrgovinski presežek. Rast na tuj račun znotraj monetarne unije lahko deluje zgolj kratkoročno.

Sparse Thoughts of a Gloomy European Economist

Yesterday’s headlines were all for Germany’s poor performance in the second quarter of 2014 (GDP shrank of 0.2%, worse than expected). That was certainly bad news, even if in my opinion the real bad news are hidden in the latest ECB bulletin, also released yesterday (but this will be the subject of another post).

Not surprisingly, the German slowdown stirred heated discussion. In particularSigmar Gabriel, Germany’s vice-chancellor, blamed the slowdown on geopolitical risks in eastern Europe and the Near East. Maybe he meant to be reassuring, but in fact his statement should make us all worry even more. Let me quote myself (ach!),from last November:

Even abstracting from the harmful effects of austerity (more here), the German model cannot work for two reasons: The first is the many times recalledfallacy of composition): Not everybody can export at the same time. The second, more political, is…

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