Evrope kot talke Nemčije ne more rešiti eksperiment “nemške ECB”

Odličen članek v Washington Postu o tem, kako se je Britanija rešila nemškega terorja in kako je cela Evropa postala talka Nemčije in njene obsesije z inflacijo, ki je ni. In seveda o tem, da sedanje eksperimentiranje ECB ne more rešiti fundamentalnega problema – da skupna valuta evro pod taktirko “nemške monetarne politike v ECB” koristi samo Nemčiji, ubija pa vse ostale članice.

Europe didn’t start a land war in Asia. And it didn’t go up against a Sicilian when death was on the line. But it still fell victim to one of the classic blunders: it joined a monetary union with Germany.

And now, as the European Central Bank (ECB) is about to cut rates into negative territory, it’s paying the political price.

Ever since it’s cash-in-a-wheelbarrow Weimar days, Germany has been an inflation hawk über alles. That’s been good enough for Germany, but bad for countries that have outsourced their monetary policy to Germany despite needing lower rates themselves. Britain made this mistake when it pegged the pound to the deutsche mark as part of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1990. But when speculators, led by George Soros, pushed the pound down, Britain decided that the ERM wasn’t worth the deep recession that raising rates enough would cost.

Europe faces the same dilemma today, only worse. See, joining the euro means ceding control of monetary policy to the German-influenced ECB. That’s a problem, because almost all of the eurozone economies, not just the crisis countries, need easier money than Germany. But they can’t ditch the euro as easily as Britain ditched the ERM, because bringing back their old currencies would set off the mother-of-all bank runs, as people tried to move their money from countries where it would get devalued to ones where it wouldn’t. So Europe is stuck trying to convince Germany to let the ECB do more—which isn’t easy.

In fact, that’s been the whole story of the euro crisis. Germany has forced countries to try to cut their way back to health, and, as Peter Spiegel extensively reports, only allowed the ECB to do what was needed all along when the alternative was a financial crisis. But Germany has been even more reluctant to allow the ECB to do what is needed now despite Europe’s slow-moving economic crisis.

Vir: Washington Post

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