V članku Nas mora ameriška neenakost skrbeti? sem izpostavil selitev industrijskih delovnih mest in izvotlitev srednjega razreda v ZDA kot enega izmed ključnih problemov nestabilnosti ameriškega agregatnega povpraševanja. V tej zvezi se tako v ZDA kot v EU izvajajo prave kampanje glede re-industrializacije oziroma selitve industrije nazaj iz Azije. Današnji Wall Street Journal poroča, da se del tega trenda v ZDA že dogaja, vendar počasi. In ni zelo verjetno, da bo na srednji rok tudi uspešen.

Glavni razlog selitve (dela) proizvodnje nazaj je predvsem bližina kupcev, v manjši meri pa padajoči stroški energije. Cena delovne sile – vsaj v avtomatizirani – proizvodnji ni pomemben faktor, pač pa se kot ključen zaviralni faktor, kot sem pisal lani v Zakaj ne bi iPhona proizvajali v Sloveniji? , kaže pomanjkanje dobaviteljskih verig in njihove fleksibilnosti. Investicije v dobaviteljske verige pa se zdijo precej iluzorne ob njihovi veliki razširjenosti v Aziji takorekoč zastonj:

It’s also about workers’ skills and the availability of suppliers. Both atrophied over the past two decades as U.S. companies shifted production to Asia. U.S. manufacturers complain they can’t find enough people skilled in operating or repairing sophisticated machinery, and U.S. students do poorly in international comparisons of math and science skills.

Euro-Pro Operating LLC, based in Newton, Mass., designs its Shark vacuum cleaners and Ninja blenders in the U.S., but it has them made by partners in China. The issue isn’t labor costs, says Mark Rosenzweig, Euro-Pro’s chief executive officer. It’s about the profusion of suppliers in China for such things as small motors and electronic parts, and the speed with which Chinese factories and suppliers can gear up to make new or redesigned products.

Replicating those skills and supply chains in the U.S. is conceivable, but it would require many years of heavy investment. The big question is whether U.S. companies, which are typically focused on pleasing Wall Street with quarterly results, will make those long-term investments.

As for cheaper energy, sure, low-cost natural gas is spurring huge investment in some U.S. industries, such as petrochemicals and fertilizers. But energy costs aren’t the decisive factor for most manufacturers.

Vir: Wall Street Journal

Tudi če prihaja do selitve proizvodnje v ZDA (denimo BMW je investiral 1 milijardo dolarjev v širitev proizvodnje v Spartanaburgu itd.), pa so številke relativno majhne – le okrog 40,000 delovnih mest letno, hkrati pa se približno toliko delovnih mest letno tudi relocira v tujino:

Harry Moser, president of the Reshoring Initiative, a nonprofit that encourages companies to consider bringing production back to the U.S., estimates that such moves are creating at least 40,000 U.S. jobs a year. But he says the number of jobs moving from the U.S. to other countries is probably around the same level.

…

All in all, says Mr. Meckstroth of the Manufacturers Alliance, it is too early to say whether the U.S. will have a major recovery in manufacturing. “The potential is there,” he says, but the U.S. needs to do a lot more—including a more competitive tax code and better vocational training. He also thinks the U.S. needs to try to get other countries to reduce trade barriers and let their currencies float freely instead of keeping them artificially weak.

Vir: Wall Street Journal