No, Trumpove carine sledijo logiki impulzivnosti Trumpovega značaja.  Pri njegovih carinah gre za popoln kaos. Carine uvaja na podlagi hipne percepcije odnosov s posameznimi državami brez pomisli na učinke. Logika carin je, (1) da se jih ne uvaja na inpute (ker to poviša stroške domači industriji in še poslabša njeno konkurenčnost), (2) da se uvedejo uniformne carine, s čimer se zmanjša administrativna kompleksnost njihovega izvajanja in (3) da se ne spreminjajo skozi daljše obdobje (da lahko podjetja ustrezno načrtujejo investicije v proizvodnjo in sourcanje inputov.

Pri Trumpu pa je popolni kaos. In težko je najti carino, ki ni bolj v škodo ZDA kot pa države, za katero jo je uvedel. Ta negotovost lahko vodi samo v gospodarsko stagnacijo in povišano inflacijo. In natanko to se Trumpu trenutno dogaja.

Trump’s new tariff rate lack rhyme or reason (other than rewarding big countries that made an effort to give him a win … )

But — as the decision on Brazil showed — it is always important to know the exclusions as well as the headline rate …

The 35% tariff rate on Canada is crazy. Nuts. Insane. dumb. Shows a lack of interest in supporting US manufacturing (the US runs a surplus in manufactures with Canada).

But if oil and USMCA compliant trade are exempt, its practical impact will be modest …

Same with the high tariff on Switzerland. Crazy. Even to my eyes, and I am no fan of Switzerland’s coddling of corporate tax avoidance.

But most US imports from Switzerland are pharmaceuticals and gold, and both are exempt from the reciprocal/ IEEPA tariffs

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… se zamenja osebo, ki zbira in objavlja statistične podatke.

Do sedaj smo takšna dejanja lahko videli samo v avtoritarnih državah sumljivega slovesa. Toda Trump je Ameriko tudi uspešno spravil na ta sloves.

Moj prijatelj, Črnogorec, rad uporablja znan rek, da nikoli ne smeš potegniti revolverja, če ga nisi pripravljen uporabiti, če je potrebno. Ker izgubiš kredibilnost in s tem je tvoje pogajalske pozicije enkrat za vselej konec. Podobno velja za Trumpove ultimate Putinu – o postavitvi 50-dnevnega roka za sklenitev premirja v Ukrajini, zdaj skrajšanem na 10 dni. Kaj bo Trump naredil, če Putin tega ne bo spoštoval (ker tega seveda ne bo spoštoval in ne more spoštovati, če želi ohraniti kredibilnost)? Bodo njegove vojaške ekipe iz Ukrajine začele ciljati ruske cilje globoko na ruskem ozemlju? In če ja, kako se bo odzval, če bo Putin to interpretiral kot vojaško agresijo na Rusijo in uporabil jedrsko opcijo?

Trump seveda ne bo naredil nič. Ker je pozer in nakladač. In nasilnež, ki se rad izživlja nad šibkimi (kot je vsa evropska politična elita na čelu s von der Leynovo). Močne spoštuje (glejte razliko v odnosu do EU in Kitajske). Zato si Putina ne bo upal zares izzvati. In zato bi bilo zanj bolje, če bi pazil na besede, če želi ohraniti kanček kredibilnosti vsaj v mednarodnih odnosih. Gre za kredibilnost Amerike kot (usihajoče) dominantne velesile.

John Maynard Keynes je verjel v kapitalizem – kot najboljši ekonomski sistem med slabimi alternativami. Toda vanj ni verjel ideološko, pač pa, da gre za sistem, v katerem nastopajo »zlobni ljudje z zlobnimi motivi«, ki seveda ne bodo poskrbeli za blaginjo vseh. Verjel je, da je država tisti subjekt, ki lahko z regulacijo usmeri in omeji te »zlobne ljudi z zlobnimi motivi«, da ob zasledovanju lastnih motivov delujejo tudi v korist ostalih deležnikov. Kapitalizem lahko deluje zgolj z močno regulativno vlogo države ne pa kot laissez faire prosti trg brez kakršnekoli regulacije. Slednje pomeni džunglo, v kateri preživijo najmočnejše ali najbolj iznajdljive zveri. Ostali so njihova hrana.. 

Dve uri masterpiecea. Zelo se splača investirati čas v ta izjemen pogovor. 

Ko bi vsaj v Evropi imeli takšne voditelje, kot jih ima Kitajska. No, zadnji je umrl leta 1970, ime mu je bilo Charles de Gaulle. Med drugo svetovno vojno je vodil odpor proti nacistom. Po vrnitvi iz pokoja na čelo Francije je de Gaulle nasprotoval kakršnemukoli razvoju Evrope v smeri nadnacionalne tvorbe in je Evropo podpiral kot celino suverenih držav. De Gaulle je odkrito kritiziral ameriško intervencijo v Vietnamu in pretirane vlogo ameriškega dolarja. Dvakrat je dal veto na vstop Velike Britanije v Evropsko gospodarsko skupnost. Februarja 1966 se je Francija umaknila iz Nata, ukazal je, naj vse tuje vojaško osebje v enem letu zapusti Francijo. Natove sile so morale zapustiti Francijo (in se umaklnile v Belgijo). De Gaulle je želel, da Francija ostane svoj gospodar odločitev, ki zadevajo njo. De Gaulle je bil velik državnik. Suverenist.

Here is Scott Bessent warning China of a bill that is going through congress that will allow president Donald Trump to impose secondary tariffs of 100% to 500% if China continue to buy Russian Oil. Trump has just imposed a tariff of 25% on India using the excuse that India continues to buy Russian Oil.

China responded forcefully, a spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry said, “China will always ensure its energy supply in ways that serve our national interests. Tariff wars have no winners. Coercion and pressuring will not achieve anything. China will firmly defend its sovereignty, security and development interests.”

In my opinion, gone are the days where the US can use its bullying tactics to get other nations to bow to US pressure. The world has now moved on to a new multipolar world, China will not let the US dictate where it can buy energy from. China will buy its energy from wherever makes the most economic sense. The US needs to start getting used to this new multipolar world and start acting responsible in it.

Če so Zelenskemu šteti dnevi (figurativno), so ukrajinski vojski šteti tedni. Ko pade vodstvo, razpade vojska in sledi kolaps države. Vsi se bojijo kaosa, ki bo sledil po tem. Libija po padcu Gadafija je dobro svarilo. Vprašanje je, če se je temu sploh še mogoče izogniti.

On Monday the 21st of July the Ukrainian Secret Service (SBU) searched offices of the independent anti-corruption police (NABU) and anti-corruption prosecutor office (SAPO) and detained several of its investigators. A day later the Zelenski regime pushed a law through parliament which ended the independence of both entities by putting them under control of the prosecutor general.

The move had been planned for months (in Russian) but was executed in haste after NABU and SAPO had served a notices-of-investigation to people near to the president.

But Zelenski had miscalculated the step. There were highly visible local protests and the EU stepped in by threatening to withhold subsidies on which the Ukrainian state depends.

Two days after his strike against the independent anti-corruption entities Zelenski had to pull back. Today the parliament reestablished the independence of NABU and SAPO.

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Nobene resne škode po potresu na Kamčatki, kljub potresu blizu zgornje fizične meje.

Kolonialne sile osi (ZDA-VB) aktivno pripravljajo post-vojno situacijo v Ukrajini. Tudi tako, da lansirajo nekdanjega komandirja ukrajinske vojske in ljubitelja ukrajinskega nacističnega vodje Stepana Bandere, obritega in v civilu, v reviji Vogue, kot zamenjavo za neobritega in v kvazi-vojaško opravo odetega komika v funkciji predsednika države s pretečenim rokom trajanja. Po ne tako skrivnostnem srečanju v švicarskem alpskem resortu, kjer je med drugim sodeloval tudi vodja kabineta aktualnega predsednika Ukrajine s pretečenim stažem se zdi zadeva odločena. Le še volitve morajo ustrezno aranžirati, da bo rezultat pravi. Ampak s tem gospodje iz ozadja nikoli niso imeli težav.

Zabavni so ti gospodje, ki vlečejo niti v ozadju

Bela hiša je objavila “Fact Sheet: The United States and European Union Reach Massive Trade Deal“, kjer pojasnjuje, kaj točno dogovor med Trumpom in von der Leynovo zajema. Ta Fact sheet je pomemben predvsem v luči nekaterih drugačnih trditev von der Leynove. Denimo, da določene carine ne bodo veljale, ali šele po izčrpanju kvot, ali da gre zgolj za namene in ne trdne dogovore. Kaj menite, katera verzija interpretacije dogovora bo na koncu prevladala?

MAKING GLOBAL HISTORY: Yesterday, President Donald J. Trump announced a trade deal with the European Union (EU), fundamentally rebalancing the economic relationship between the world’s two largest economies.

• The deal marks a generational modernization of the transatlantic alliance and will provide Americans with unprecedented levels of market access to the European Union.
• The deal bolsters America’s economy and manufacturing capabilities. The EU will purchase $750 billion in U.S. energy and make new investments of $600 billion in the United States, all by 2028.
• Through decisive leadership and an unyielding commitment to American workers, President Trump has delivered yet another agreement that positions the United States as the world’s preeminent destination for investment, innovation, and advanced manufacturing.

REACHING A HISTORIC TRADE DEAL: President Trump’s agreement with the European Union achieves historic structural reforms and strategic commitments that will benefit American industry, workers, and national security for generations:

• The United States and European Union reached a Cooperation Agreement on Reciprocal, Fair and Balanced Trade.
• This colossal deal will enable U.S. farmers, ranchers, fishermen, and manufacturers to increase U.S. exports, expand business opportunities, and help reduce the goods trade deficit with the European Union.  The EU will remove significant tariffs, including the elimination of all EU tariffs on U.S. industrial goods exported to the EU, creating enormous opportunities for American-made and American-grown goods to compete and win in Europe. This new market access will drive growth across the American economy—fueling exports, expanding production, and allowing American businesses of all sizes to reach millions of new customers across the Atlantic.
• As part of President Trump’s strategy to establish balanced trade, the European Union will pay the United States a tariff rate of 15%, including on autos and auto parts, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors. However, the sectoral tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper will remain unchanged—the EU will continue to pay 50% and the parties will discuss securing supply chains for these products. This new tariff regime will generate tens of billions of dollars in revenue annually and help to close the longstanding trade imbalance between the United States and Europe by encouraging local sourcing, reshoring production, and ensuring that foreign producers contribute their fair share to the American economy.

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