Zakaj je zlato skoncentrirano v Londonu? Ker je bila V. Britanija 150 let globalni hegemon, trgovinsko najmočnejša država, prek katere so tudi potekala plačila za trgovinske transakcije. Kdor je trgovski center, postane tudi finančni. Zlato služi kot zavarovanje. No, zdaj se je težišče globalne trgovine preselilo. Dodatni pospešek pa so dale zahodne sankcije. Dokler je šlo samo za zaseg iranskih monetarnih rezerv, ni bilo velikih skrbi, toda ko so zahodne države zaplenile monetarne rezerve Rusije, so dale jasen signal, da to lahko naredijo komur koli. In to je povzročilo paniko na trgu. Kitajska se je v vmesnem času postopoma umikala iz ameriških državnih obveznic (med januarjem 2022 in julijem 2025 je zmanjšala imetje ameriških državnih obveznic za 32 %), kupovala zlato (+300 ton oziroma +15%) in ga parkirala doma.

Zdaj Kitajska vabi druge države, da svoje zlate rezerve hranijo pri njej. Ni treba biti genij za napoved, da bo čez tri leta dobršen del zlatih rezerv iz Londona emigriral v Kitajsko.

Na drugi strani “gospodarjev vojne” so grobovi in epitafi. Na drugi strani so razdejanje, trpljenje in solze nedolžnih.

Ja, sankcije grizejo, vendar tiste, ki so jih uvedli. Najbolj znan primer je prepoved izvoza čipov in tehnologije za proizvodnjo čipov v Kitajsko. V petih letih je Kitajska nadomestila tehnološki zaostanek in sama prepovedala uvoz najbolj naprednih čipov NVIDIA. NVIDIA je izgubila enega največjih trgov za svoje čipe na področju tehnologij z umetno inteligenco.

Spodaj je zadnji primer, ki se nanaša na turbine za plinovode. Če se spomnite, junija 2022 je Nemčija sledila zahodnim sankcijam in prepovedala Siemensu, da bi dostavil turbine za ruski plinovod, iz katerega se je oskrbovala Nemčija. Rusija je morala posledično zmanjšati dobave plina. No, zdaj je Rusija dobila te turbine od Irana. Siemens je izgubil potencialno milijardne posle.

Bolj pomembno je, da so sankcije vplivale na spremembo v strateškem razmisleku: države globalnega Juga vedo, da si morajo zagotoviti tehnologije, ki bodo “sanction proof”. To pomeni  globalno tehnološko prestrukturiranje in hitrejše tehnološko in gospodarsko dohitevanje zahodnih držav. In to pomeni stotine milijard izgubljenih prihodkov za zahodna podjetja, ki so imela do sedaj primat na tem področju.

Če bi kdo hotel zrušiti zahodni dominantni položaj na področju tehnologij, bi naredil natanko to – uvedel bi sankcije, prepoved izvoza teh tehnologij. Namesto, da bi trgovali – prodajali tehnologije in zadržali tehnološko prednost, so zahodni politiki s sankcijami prisilili “države v razvoju”, da same razvijejo te tehnologije in nadomestijo zaostanek. S tem so se sebe (zahod) oropali dominantnega položaja, svoja podjetja pa stotin miljardnih poslov. Vodijo nas politični tepci.

Zgodba v slikah. Prva kaže zadnje podatke o kitajskem izvozu avtomobilov. Konec leta 2020 je kitajski izvoz avtov znašal 1 milijon (avtov), konec 2023 že 5 milijonov, konec 2024 6 milijonov in konec letošnjega leta bo že 8 milijonov. 

Pomembno je razumevanje dinamike. Kitajska vlada je leta 2015 sprejela strategijo Made in China 2025, kjer kot enega izmed ciljev postavlja, da želi postati dominantna v proizvodnji električnih avtomobilov (EV) in baterij zanje. 5 let so kitajska podjetja in tenzivno delala na tem, nakar je po odptju trgovine po Covidu, kitajski izvoz izbruhnil – kot lepo ilustrira spodnja slika. Za tekmece je to izgledalo kot nenadni izbruh vulkana, za kitajske oblasti pa načrtovana industrijska politika.

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Andrew Korybko

Banning the AfD, more “statistically conspicuous” deaths of its candidates, and even a repeat of the Romanian scenario can’t be ruled out as the nationalist opposition continues growing in popularity.

A poll from publicly financed German media revealed that the AfD once again ties the ruling CDU in popularity at 26% each, which Euractiv evaluated as proving its staying power. They also assessed that their tripling of support in North Rhine-Westphalia’s latest elections, Germany’s most populous state, to 14.5% “emphasized the party’s increasingly national base.” This is in spite of media smears, namely that it’s backed by the Kremlin and extremist, and the “statistically conspicuous” death of seven candidates.

The AfD’s surging support across Germany can be attributed to the unofficial recession that Germany entered in 2022 after complying with US pressure to sanction Russia in solidarity with Ukraine and from which it’s still struggling to recover. Simply put, cutting off reliable access to low-cost energy raised prices across the board, which reduced the competitiveness of German companies and led to economic malaise. This unfolded in parallel with the government taking on more of a “liberal-totalitarian” form.

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Ilustracija tega, kar govori Draghi, je v spodnji sliki:

Ko evropski “voditelji” rečejo, da bodo popolnoma prenehali kupovati ruski zemeljski in LNG plin, so se s tem avtomatsko odločili za trajno nekajkrat višje cene plina in tudi elektrike. Oziroma s tem so se odločili za trajno nekonkurenčnost evropske industrije in deindustrializacijo Evrope.

To je največja usluga, ki jo nevedni / nekompetentni evropski voditelji dajejo Kitajski in ZDA. Odrezali so nogo evropski industriji, da ne bi mogla tekmovati s kitajsko in ameriško.

Vse ostalo je zgolj politično govoričenje nekompetentnih ali zavestno škodljivih politikov.

“The truth is, the predictions were always more profitable than they were accurate.”

Fantazije generala, ki je zaljubljen v fikcijo. Avtor: general Sir Richard Shirreff, nekdanji namestnik vrhovnega poveljnika zavezniških sil Nata v Evropi

Fantazija št. 1:  Putinov napad na baltske države, da bi zamotil Američane pri kitajskem zavzetju Tajvana

British General Sir Richard Shirreff — former Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe of NATO — shares his fears in a long and alarming article for the Daily Mail.

He explained and presented how Russia might attack NATO in the near future, detailing its actions and timelines in an apocalyptic scenario. In this case, according to Sir Richard, the West could “lose World War III.” And in just five days, the world order would be completely changed.

According to Shirreff, Russia could launch an attack on Beijing’s orders as soon as China decides to seize Taiwan, “to distract the West.” Putin will certainly dislike this subordinate role, notes the British general. But considering that “the tsar may soon need significant financial and military resources to avoid being overthrown at home after three and a half years of war in Ukraine,” “then he might decide to play the Chinese game and thereby expose all of Europe’s weaknesses.”

Shirreff suggests that Russia’s attack on NATO will begin on November 3, 2025, at 2:00 PM Lithuanian time. Obviously, there are no real signs that such a grim scenario will unfold on that exact day. But the general presumably chooses this date to illustrate the possible dynamics and timelines following the tsar’s attack.

So, Shirreff describes this scenario. The capital, Vilnius, and the rest of the country suffer massive power outages, which soon spread to Estonia and Latvia due to a malicious virus on Lithuanian power lines. “Banks, offices, and hospitals are closed. Panic quickly grows in the Baltic countries: Russian agents and supporters (arriving from Belarus) cause riots, thefts, and looting, forcing authorities to impose a curfew,” the general writes.

At this point, according to Shirreff, “power outages also spread to the United Kingdom, France, and Germany.” Western leaders called for calm. But at 7 a.m. the next day, November 4, Putin announced that Russian troops in the Kaliningrad enclave were put on maximum combat readiness and concentrated soldiers and military equipment on the border with Lithuania. European authorities hurried to talk to the “tsar,” but he did not answer the phone. Someone opened fire from the Russian enclave toward Lithuania, which responded by arresting pro-Russian militants. Then Putin decided to take control of the Suwałki Corridor, the only border strip — about 100 kilometers — between Lithuania and Poland, and Russian planes took control of the airspace over this area.

Then, in Shirreff’s very detailed report, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte invoked Article 5 of the NATO Charter. Putin continued attacking Lithuania on November 5, while U.S. President Donald Trump froze. Meanwhile, Lithuania was under siege but under Russian control. The Suwałki Corridor became increasingly difficult for the allies to defend.

Shirreff’s story ends here: the world order was overturned in just five days, China got what it always wanted (Taiwan), Putin occupied and claims the Baltics and Ukraine, and  “NATO has effectively collapsed.”

Most likely, this is just a dystopian fantasy or nightmare. But, according to the British general, there are no guarantees that this conspiracy will never become a frightening reality.

Vir: Lord Bebo

(Medklic: torej bo tudi Kitajska 2. novembra 2025 ob 2 popoldne po litvanskem času napadla Tajvan)

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Fantazija št. 2: Nato bo zavzel Kaliningrad in z ruskim jedrskim orožjem napadel Rusijo