Povzetek govora Johna Mearsheimerja v Evropskem parlamentu (generiran s pomočjo UI na podlagi objavljenega govora v The American Conservative). Povzetek ne pride blizu originalnemu govoru Mearsheimerja, služi pa lahko kot približek glavnih Mearsheimerjevih poant.

Mearsheimer trdi, da je Evropa po koncu t. i. unipolarnega trenutka v “globokih težavah”, pri čemer je vojna v Ukrajini po njegovem ključni razlog za razkroj nekoč relativno stabilnega evropskega varnostnega okolja. Unipolarno obdobje – od razpada Sovjetske zveze do približno 2017 – je mnoge navdalo z iluzijo, da se bo “liberalni mir” in demokracija skoraj samodejno širila po svetu, kot je v znanem eseju nakazal Francis Fukuyama. Danes pa se zdi ravno nasprotno: Evropa je v vojni, njen varnostni okvir se maje, prihodnost pa je po Mearsheimerju bolj nestabilna kot sedanjost.

Jedro njegove razlage je teza, da je bila stabilnost Evrope po hladni vojni zgrajena predvsem na ameriški vojaški prisotnosti v Evropi prek Nata, ne na EU. Mearsheimer vidi Nato kot varnostno “osnovo” (base) in EU kot gospodarsko-politično “nadstavbo” (superstructure): brez ameriškega “pacifikatorja” bi se lahko spori med evropskimi državami ponovno razplamteli, EU pa bi bila resno oslabljena. Z vzponom Kitajske in ponovnim vzponom Rusije ter prehodom iz unipolarnosti v multipolarnost pride do situacije, v kateri ZDA ne morejo več brez stroškov ohranjati istega obsega vojaške navzočnosti v Evropi.

Mearsheimer zato podrobno obravnava globalno razmerje moči: ZDA ostajajo najmočnejša država, a Kitajska jih dohiteva in je v Vzhodni Aziji potencialni hegemon, kar je za Washington strateško nesprejemljivo. Rusijo uvršča med tri velike sile, vendar kot najslabotnejšo – po njegovem mnenju ni sposobna prevzeti nadzora ne nad celotno Ukrajino ne nad vzhodno Evropo, zato ne predstavlja resnega kandidata za evropskega hegemon. Iz tega sklepa, da za ZDA ni racionalnega razloga vztrajati pri veliki vojaški prisotnosti v Evropi, ko pa so glavni strateški tekmec in obremenitev na Indo-pacifiškem območju.

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Tole je obvezno poslušanje. Trenutno, razen Jeffreya Sachsa, ni bolj čistega intelektualnega uma in bolj čistega nalitega vina o geopolitični in geostrateški situaciji in situaciji EU, v katero se je sama potisnila.

Od Bidnove floskule “nič o Ukrajini brez Ukrajine” in od evropske floskule, da je “predpogoj za začetek mirovnih pogajanj med Rusijo in Ukrajino, da se Rusija umakne iz zasedenih ozemelj“, smo prišli v fazo trdega realizma, ki sem ga napovedoval že od začetka aprila 2022 po britansko-ameriški sabotaži mirovnega sporazume med Rusijo in Ukrajino v Istanbulu – in sicer, da bo vsak naslednji predlog sporazuma z ruske strani bistveno bolj neugoden za Ukrajino. No, po treh letih in pol nesmiselne vojne, se počasi in zagotovo pomikamo v to smer. Danes Ukrajina in EU prosita za začetek pogajanj z Rusijo, vendar ju slednja ignorira. O Ukrajini se pogovarja le z Washingtonom.

Zadnji predlog rusko-ameriškega sporazuma o Ukrajini (sic!) v 28 točkah, pri nastajanju katerega ukrajinski predstavniki spet niso sodelovali, predvideva, kot piše Financial Times, zelo velike koncesije za Ukrajino. Koncesije, ki so enake kapitulaciji Ukrajine.

Ameriški predsednik Donald Trump in njegovi predstavniki naj bi skupaj z visokimi ruskimi uradniki oblikovali osnutek novega mirovnega načrta za končanje vojne v Ukrajini. Načrt naj bi Kijevu nalagal zelo obsežne koncesije, zaradi česar so v ukrajinski vladi sproženi resni pomisleki. Med ključnimi pobudniki dokumenta je Kirill Dmitrijev, vodja ruskega državnega investicijskega sklada in bližnji zaveznik ruskega predsednika Vladimirja Putina. Načrt je v imenu Washingtona Ukrajini predstavil Trumpov posebni odposlanec Steve Witkoff, ki je v Miamiju ukrajinskim uradnikom razložil vseh 28 točk sporazuma.

Predlagani okvir mirovnega dogovora vključuje nekatere ukrepe, ki so za Ukrajino že dolgo povsem nesprejemljivi. Določal bi, da mora Ukrajina Rusiji prepustiti preostanek regije Donbas, vključno z ozemljem, ki ga trenutno nadzoruje Kijev, ter prepoloviti velikost svojih oboroženih sil. Ukrajina bi morala tudi opustiti dostop do določenih kategorij orožja, tuje vojaške sile ne bi smele biti prisotne na njenem ozemlju, ameriška vojaška pomoč pa bi se zmanjšala – vse to pa bi državo dolgoročno izpostavilo povečani ruski grožnji v prihodnosti.

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Nizozemska je manjša od statistične napake in bi se šla ekonomsko vojno s Kitajsko. Nakar je vesela, če se lahko preda:

Z veseljem sporočamo, da se je Kitajska konstruktivno strinjala, da se predamo.

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It’s done: the Dutch have “unseized” Nexperia, they’ve suspended the legislation that they’d invoked to take away the company from China.

Hilariously the reason they give for this is because this will allow the Chinese authorities to resume supplying chips to Europe, which were retaliatory measures taken BECAUSE of this law.

So in effect what they’re saying is “we’re happy to report that China has constructively agreed to let us surrender”

In nato se čudimo, da Evrope nihče ne jemlje resno. Kdo bi jemal resno palčke, ki se junačijo, kot da so velikani, nimajo pa za burek? Luzerjev nihče ne spoštuje. Po tej vojni v Ukrajini in po tem drugem kitajskem šoku bo Evropa tretja liga. Zaradi norosti in nesposobnosti njenih politikov.

“The Trump administration has been secretly working in consultation with Russia to draft a new plan to end the war in Ukraine, U.S. and Russian officials tell Axios. A top Russian official told Axios he’s optimistic about the plan. It’s not yet clear how Ukraine and its European backers will feel about it.

Zoom in: The plan’s 28 points fall into four general buckets, sources tell Axios: peace in Ukraine, security guarantees, security in Europe, and future U.S. relations with Russia and Ukraine.

It’s unclear how the plan approaches contentious issues such as territorial control in eastern Ukraine — where Russian forces have been inching forward, but still control far less land than the Kremlin has demanded.

Behind the scenes: Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff is leading the drafting of the plan and has discussed it extensively with Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev, a U.S. official said.

Dmitriev, who runs Russia’s sovereign wealth fund and is also deeply involved in diplomacy over Ukraine, told Axios in an interview on Monday that he spent three days huddled with Witkoff and other members of Trump’s team when Dmitriev visited Miami from Oct. 24-26.

Dmitriev expressed optimism about the deal’s chances of success because, unlike past efforts, “we feel the Russian position is really being heard.”

The other side: Witkoff was expected to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday in Turkey but postponed his trip, Ukrainian and U.S. officials said.

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O tem bi morali v Sloveniji imeti referendum:

.@vonderleyen has once again asked the member states for additional funds to finance Ukraine and the war.

What exactly does this mean?

The President of the Commission is asking for nothing less than an additional €135 billion over 2 years. This is 65% of Hungary’s annual economic output, 7 years of pensions from all Hungarian pensioners, and nearly 3/4 of the EU’s annual budget.

An astronomical sum that does not exist today. It simply does not exist.

The Brusselian “magic trick” would once again be a joint European loan, a move that would ensure even our grandchildren would be burdened with repaying the costs of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

They’re asking us, Hungarians, to contribute to this. A country that’s fined €1 million/day because we do not let migrants in. A country that’s financially punished because it has its own position on the war and on gender ideology.

This is more than impossible. This is categorically absurd. Hungary’s response will come without delay.

When the exchange ratio is 24,000 Ukrainian dead to 1,300 Russian, and 161,000 Ukrainian soldiers desert in a single year, the story writes itself: this wasn’t a war. It was a cull. And the empire cheered as Ukraine’s men were fed into the grinder, one generation after another.

Desertion in this case isn’t cowardice. Desertion is the last act of a man who realizes his government has signed his and his country’s death certificate.

And when 161,461 Ukrainian soldiers desert in the first 10 months of 2025, a 43× increase from 2022 (official number, unofficial numbers are likely higher), you’re not looking at a morale problem.

You’re looking at the collapse of an army that knows it has been condemned.

Condemned by its own leadership.

Condemned by the handlers who whisper orders from Washington, London, Brussels.

Condemned by an empire that views Ukrainian men as expendable placeholders on a geopolitical chessboard.

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Druga interpretacija te napovedi Goldman Sachsa za Kitajsko in učinka na Evropo je: Welcome to China shock 2.0:

za vsako odstotno točko rasti kitajskega izvoza se evropski izvoz zmanjša za 0.3 odstotne točke.

Kitajska sistematično odžira trg za evropski izvoz. Vendar tega ni kriva Kitajska, pač pa mi sami. Kitajska ima izdelke, ki jih mi nimamo ali pa jih ponujamo po bistveno višjih cenah (tipičen primer so električni avtomobili). Za to ni kriva Kitajska, pač pa naše lastne evropske politike: popolna odsotnost vizije in strategije, zanemarjanje in odsotnost industrijskih politik in politik za spodbujanje tehnološkega razvoja, ogromne administrativne ovire za poslovanje, napačne energetske politike, napačen odziv na vojno v Ukrajini, napačna migrantska politika itd. Evropa uničuje samo sebe. Oziroma evropski politični razred ubija evropsko gospodarstvo in s tem posledično bodočo blaginjo v Evropi. Evropsko gospodarstvo razpada pri živem telesu, le da to vedo samo menedžerji, medtem ko so politiki še vedno na nekem svojem oblaku. Politiki živijo v nekem svojem domišljijskem paralelnem svetu.

When the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano erupted on Jan. 15, it sent a tsunami racing around the world and set off a sonic boom that circled the globe twice. The underwater eruption in the South Pacific Ocean also blasted an enormous plume of water vapor into Earth’s stratosphere – enough to fill more than 58,000 Olympic-size swimming pools. The sheer amount of water vapor could be enough to temporarily affect Earth’s global average temperature.

“We’ve never seen anything like it,” said Luis Millán, an atmospheric scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California. He led a new study examining the amount of water vapor that the Tonga volcano injected into the stratosphere, the layer of the atmosphere between about 8 and 33 miles (12 and 53 kilometers) above Earth’s surface.

In the study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, Millán and his colleagues estimate that the Tonga eruption sent around 146 teragrams (1 teragram equals a trillion grams) of water vapor into Earth’s stratosphere – equal to 10% of the water already present in that atmospheric layer. That’s nearly four times the amount of water vapor that scientists estimate the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines lofted into the stratosphere.

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Volcanic eruptions rarely inject much water into the stratosphere. In the 18 years that NASA has been taking measurements, only two other eruptions – the 2008 Kasatochi event in Alaska and the 2015 Calbuco eruption in Chile – sent appreciable amounts of water vapor to such high altitudes. But those were mere blips compared to the Tonga event, and the water vapor from both previous eruptions dissipated quickly. The excess water vapor injected by the Tonga volcano, on the other hand, could remain in the stratosphere for several years.

This extra water vapor could influence atmospheric chemistry, boosting certain chemical reactions that could temporarily worsen depletion of the ozone layer. It could also influence surface temperatures. Massive volcanic eruptions like Krakatoa and Mount Pinatubo typically cool Earth’s surface by ejecting gases, dust, and ash that reflect sunlight back into space. In contrast, the Tonga volcano didn’t inject large amounts of aerosols into the stratosphere, and the huge amounts of water vapor from the eruption may have a small, temporary warming effect, since water vapor traps heat. The effect would dissipate when the extra water vapor cycles out of the stratosphere and would not be enough to noticeably exacerbate climate change effects.

Vir: NASA