Ray Dalio: The Changing Domestic and World Orders Under the Trump Administration

26 novembra, 2024 By in gospodarstvo

Glavne ugotovitve wannabe finančnega guruja Raya Dalia (Bridgewater) so naslednje:

  1. Trumpova avtoritarna “vladavina” in način oblikovanja ekonomskih politik spominja na tiste iz zgodnjih 1930. let (Mussolini, Hitler), kar sicer še ne pomeni, da je Trumpa treba enačiti s fašistom.
  2. Trump se bo ukvarjal sam s seboj in se ne bo lotil ključnih ameriških problemov, ki so po njegovem izobraževanje in vzdržnost dolga.
  3. Svetovna ureditev se bo popoloma spremenila, ker ZDA več ne bodo čutile, da morajo uveljavljati svetovni red in multilateralna pravila, ampak se bodo brutalno fokusirale na svoje interese.
  4. To okolje je izjemno dobro za Kitajsko, ki bo s svojim “soft power” v tem času ekonomsko prevezela globalni Jug, kjer živio 85 % svetovnega prebivalstva.
  5. Evropa je mrtva, šibka, polna lastnih problemov in nesposobna se braniti pred Rusijo brez ZDA, kaj šele, da bi se bojevala v tej globalni bitki (“Europe is weak, has its hands full with its own problems, and doesn’t have a dog in this fight, while it has Russia on its doorstep and can’t fight it without the U.S.’s NATO support.”).

Torej, glavni zmagovalci Trumpovega mandata in razpada svetovne ureditve, kot smo jo poznali, bodo ameriški lastniki kapitala in zgornjih 5 % prebivalstva (ki zasedajo najbolje plačana delovna mesta) in Kitajska, glavni loser pa bo Evropa, ki je itak že klinično mrtva.

Torej? A Evropa sploh ima mnenje o tem, če že kreativnega programa (za spopad s svojo nekonkurenčnostjo in nepomembnostjo) nima? Ali pa je UvdL še vedno v šoku in čaka na nova navodila njenega novega šefa?

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What’s Coming: The Changing Domestic and World Orders Under the Trump Administration

Now that the nightmare scenario of a close Trump loss and ensuing fight over the election has been taken off the table by a decisive Trump-led rightist sweep over Harris’s leftist alternative and a number of his key appointments have been announced, a picture of what is likely to happen is emerging. I want to make clear that the picture I am painting is meant to be as accurate as possible without any biased opinions of good or bad, because accuracy is what’s most important for making decisions in the best possible way.

The picture that I see is one of 1) a giant renovation of government and the domestic order aimed at making it run more efficiently, which will include an internal political war to convert that vision into reality, and 2) an “America first” foreign policy and preparation for external war with China, which is perceived to be America’s greatest threat. The most recent analogous period is the 1930s, when such an approach emerged in several countries.

The people Donald Trump is choosing to make this happen with him are: Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, who will run the newly proposed Department of Government Efficiency; Matt Gaetz, who, as Attorney General (if he gets the Senate’s approval), will push the legal limits of what those who are running this new order can do; RFK Jr., who would radically reform the healthcare system, as Secretary of Health and Human Services; and Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence, and Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense, who will lead the fight against foreign adversaries. Many, many others—some who might be in government and some who will be outside advisors, like Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon, and a few Trump family members—will be on the mission with Trump. They are all win-at-all-cost loyalists to the leader and to the mission of bringing down the so-called “deep state” and replacing it with a new domestic order that they hope will create maximum economic strength and fight foreign enemies.

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Oreshnik: Russia’s groundbreaking new ballistic missile

25 novembra, 2024 By in gospodarstvo 3 komentarji

Zastrašujoče. Z eno raketo je mogoče zadeti 6 vojaških baz in znotraj vsake baze po 6 ciljev ali več. Zgolj na podlagi kinetične energije je mogoče prebiti armirane površine nekaj deset metrov globoko.

Zastrašujoče. Sploh, če pomislimo, da so si Rusi bili prisiljeni pomagati s čipi iz pralnih in pomivalnih strojev…

Če bi bil predsednik vlade Nemčije, Italije ali V. Britanije ali predsednik Francije, ne bi prav mirno spal.

Podnebni COP29: Kres prestižnega elitizma in ničevosti

25 novembra, 2024 By in gospodarstvo Tags: , , , 1 komentar

Glavno sporočilo spodnjega članka o podnebni konferenci COP29:

Glavna ovira za doseganje naložbenih ciljev za omejitev globalnega segrevanja ni cena obnovljivih virov v primerjavi z energijo fosilnih goriv, pač pa donosnost obnovljivih virov v primerjavi s proizvodnjo fosilnih goriv. Tržne rešitve ne bodo delovale, ker zasebnim podjetjem preprosto ni donosno vlagati v blažitev podnebnih sprememb.

No, jaz bi k temu dodal dvoje. Prvič, večina ljudi, ki se ukvarjajo s podnebnimi spremembami, ne razume, da v njihovem modelu človeškega vpliva na povečanje CO2 izpustov ključno vlogo igra globalizacija svetovne trgovine. Ko smo proizvodnjo industrijskih izdelkov preselili v Azijo in na globalni Jug, smo v globalnem Severu nekoliko znižali izpuste CO2. Toda v Aziji in na jugu zdaj proizvajajo te izdelke bistveno bolj umazano (nižji okoljski srandardi) in za potrebno energijo za njihovo proizvodnjo dnevno odpirajo nove elektrarne na premog in plin, nato pa te izdelke na daleč najbolj umazan način s kontejnerskimi ladjami vozimo nazaj na Sever. Bistvo zgodbe je, da se bodisi odpovemo globalizaciji ali da manj razvite države, ki za nas proizvajajo vse izdelke, prepričamo, da energijo proizvajajo na bolj čist način in da izdelke k nam vozimo na bolj čist način.

In drugič, subvencije za obnovljive vire, ki povečujejo donosnost v njihove naložbe, ne delujejo in ne vodijo k vzdržnim rešitvam. Takoj, ko jih umaknemo ali zmanjšamo, donosmost “obnovljivih projektov” kolapsne, dolgoročno pa si nobena država ne more privoščiti v nedogled subvencionirati zasebna podjetja. Rešitev je treba iskati drugje – ne v sončnih in vetrnih elektrarnah, gromozanskih baterijah in zelenem vodiku, ker je ta koncept tehnično nevzdržen in ekstremno drag, pač pa v hidro in jedrski energiji, ki sta izdatna, stabilna, brezogljična, prijazna do okolja (glede na alternative) in dolgoročno daleč najcenejša vira. In ne potrebujeta nobenega subvencioniranja. Tu pa je treba angažirati javne finance, ki edine lahko zagotovijo nizko ceno financiranja. Zasebni kapital si bo hotel odrezati prevelik donos, zato pozabimo nanj pri teh ključnih strateških naložbah v prihodnost.

There was a tortuous and painful end to COP29, the international climate change conference held in oil-rich Baku, Azerbaijan. The main issue was how much would the rich countries hand over to the poor countries to pay for the measures to mitigate global warming and handle the damage caused by rising ‘greenhouse gas’ emissions. The finance target set was for more than $1.3trn a year by 2035. But the final deal was based on just $300bn in actual grants and low-interest loans from the developed world. The rest would have to come from private investors and perhaps levies on fossil fuels and frequent flyers – the details of which remained vague.

The offer from the ‘developed’ countries, funded from their national budgets and overseas aid, is supposed to form the inner core of a so-called ‘layered’ finance settlement, accompanied by a middle layer of new forms of finance such as new taxes on fossil fuels and high-carbon activities, carbon trading and ‘innovative’ forms of finance; and an outermost layer of investment from the private sector, into projects such as solar and windfarms. This was a ‘copout’ from providing real money transfers.

Mohamed Adow, director of the Power Shift Africa thinktank, said: “This [summit] has been a disaster for the developing world. It’s a betrayal of both people and planet, by wealthy countries who claim to take climate change seriously. Rich countries have promised to ‘mobilise’ some funds in the future, rather than provide them now. The cheque is in the mail. But lives and livelihoods in vulnerable countries are being lost now.”

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Senator Lindsay Graham o vojni v Ukrajini: “To enrich ourselves…”

24 novembra, 2024 By in gospodarstvo 1 komentar

Težko je verjeti, dokler ne slišiš iz njihovih lastnih ust. Vojna v Ukrajini je po besedah senatorja Grahama vojna za redke minerale (vredne nekaj tisoč milijard dolarjev) in najboljša naložba ZDA, ki v ej bojni ne bo izguvila nobenega vojaka.

Kaj pa Ukrajina in njeni ljudje? Ah, lahko so srečni, da se bojujejo za ameriške politične in gospodarske namene. Do zadnjega Ukrajinca.

https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1860633606613352732

Shlomo Sand: Iznajdba judovskega ljudstva

24 novembra, 2024 By in gospodarstvo Tags: , , , , 1 komentar

Čas za osvežitev poznavanja zgodovine.

A historical tour de force that demolishes the myths and taboos that have surrounded Jewish and Israeli history, The Invention of the Jewish People offers a new account of both that demands to be read and reckoned with. Was there really a forced exile in the first century, at the hands of the Romans? Should we regard the Jewish people, throughout two millennia, as both a distinct ethnic group and a putative nation—returned at last to its Biblical homeland?

Shlomo Sand argues that most Jews actually descend from converts, whose native lands were scattered far across the Middle East and Eastern Europe. The formation of a Jewish people and then a Jewish nation out of these disparate groups could only take place under the sway of a new historiography, developing in response to the rise of nationalism throughout Europe. Beneath the biblical back fill of the nineteenth-century historians, and the twentieth-century intellectuals who replaced rabbis as the architects of Jewish identity, The Invention of the Jewish People uncovers a new narrative of Israel’s formation, and proposes a bold analysis of nationalism that accounts for the old myths.

Main findings:

  • The expulsion of Jews from Judea did not happen.
  • Many Judean Jews accepted Islam and are the ancestors of today’s Palestinians.
  • The “nation-race” of Jews with a common origin doesn’t exist and the “Jewish diaspora” is a modern invention.
  • The ancestors of European Jews mostly converted to Judaism and have no origin in Palestine.

After a long stay on Israel’s bestseller list, and winning the coveted Aujourd’hui Award in France, The Invention of the Jewish People is finally available in English. The central importance of the conflict in the Middle East ensures that Sand’s arguments will reverberate well beyond the historians and politicians that he takes to task. Without an adequate understanding of Israel’s past, capable of superseding today’s opposing views, diplomatic solutions are likely to remain elusive. In this iconoclastic work of history, Shlomo Sand provides the intellectual foundations for a new vision of Israel’s future.

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Shlomo Sand is a Jewish Professor of History at Tel Aviv University

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Chomsky je imel prav: Mit ameriškega idealizma

24 novembra, 2024 By in gospodarstvo Tags: , ,

Spodaj je izvleček iz dobre recenzije zadnje knjige Noama Chomskega in Nathana J. Robinsona “The Myth of American Idealism”. Chomsky in Robinson še enkrat več razzbijata mit, da ameriško zunanjo poolitiko vodijo dobri nameni in moralna načela in da so slabe stvari, ki se zgodijo, zgolj nezaželene stranske posledice. Nasprotno – ameriška zunanja politika je to, kar se kaže tudi navzven: brutalno uveljavljanje ameriške globalne hegemonije z vsemi sredstvi.

Seveda ni zanemarljivo, da je recenzijo napisal Stephen M. Walt, profesor politologije na univerzi Harvard in eden izmed vodilnih teoretikov realizma v mednarodnih odnosih (sicer tudi skupaj z Johnom Mearsheimerjem soavtor knjige “The Israel Lobby”.

For more than half a century, Noam Chomsky has been arguably the world’s most persistent, uncompromising, and intellectually respected critic of contemporary U.S. foreign policy. In a steady stream of books, articles, interviews, and speeches, he has repeatedly sought to expose Washington’s costly and inhumane approach to the rest of the world, an approach he believes has harmed millions and is contrary to the United States’ professed values. As co-author Nathan J. Robinson writes in the preface, The Myth of American Idealism was written to “draw insights from across [Chomsky’s] body of work into a single volume that could introduce people to his central critiques of U.S. foreign policy.” It accomplishes that task admirably.

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The Myth of American Idealism: How U.S. Foreign Policy Endangers the World, Noam Chomsky and Nathan J. Robinson, Penguin, 416 pp., $32, October 2024.

As the title suggests, the central target of the book is the claim that U.S. foreign policy is guided by the lofty ideals of democracy, freedom, the rule of law, human rights, etc. For those who subscribe to this view, the damage the United States has sometimes inflicted on other countries was the unintended and much regretted result of actions taken for noble purposes and with the best of intentions. Americans are constantly reminded by their leaders that they are an “indispensable nation” and “the greatest force for freedom the world has ever known,” and assured that moral principles will be at the “center of U.S. foreign policy.” Such self-congratulatory justifications are then endlessly echoed by a chorus of politicians and establishment intellectuals.

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Ukrajina – Izgubljene iluzije Zahoda ali kako pomembne so priprave na vojno

24 novembra, 2024 By in gospodarstvo 1 komentar

Marko Golob

»Rusi se vojne bojijo, vendar so nanjo pripravljeni, Zahod se vojne ne boji, vendar nanjo ni pripravljen«. (The Saker)

Gornji stavek švicarskega generalštabnega častnika, obveščevalnega oficirja in lastnika zdaj že diskontinuiranega in nekoč popularnega bloga The Saker Andreja Rajevskega mi že dolgo odzvanja, zadnje čase toliko bolj.  Ob tem se spomnim pogovora s slovenskim ministrom po uradnem obisku v Rusiji in srečanju s predsednikom Putinom še v času, ko odnosi Rusije z Zahodom še niso bili tako napeti in se je z Rusijo, nekdaj našo pomembno trgovinsko partnerico, še dalo (uspešno) poslovati. Minister, ki je promoviral našo avtomobilsko industrijo in možnosti našega sodelovanja z rusko industrijo, je bil o zadevi (tudi zaradi najinih pogovorov) dobro seznanjen. Kot dober poznavalec ekonomije in Rusije pa je vseeno vprašal – navajam po spominu:

»Slovenci smo seveda pripravljeni na sodelovanje pri razvoju ruske avtomobilske industrije, ampak vseeno se sprašujemo, zakaj Rusija glede na kapacitete in tehnološki nivo svoje strojne industrije ne vlaga sama več v razvoj te industrijske veje.«

Odgovor Putina, to je bilo še pred 2014, je bil:

»Najprej moramo poskrbeti za obrambo, potem bo prišla na vrsto tudi industrija za izboljšanje življenskega standarda.«

Odgovor kaže, kako zelo se je Rusija že več kot pred desetletjem zavedala prihajajočega konflikta z Zahodom in kako temeljito sistematično in dolgoročno se je pripravljala nanj. Pa ne samo ona.

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Alchemy – britanski načrt za neskončno vojno v Ukrajini

23 novembra, 2024 By in gospodarstvo

Leaked files show top UK military figures conspired to carry out the Kerch bridge bombing, covertly train “Gladio”-style stay-behind forces in Ukraine, and groom the British public for a drop in living standards caused by the proxy war against Russia.

Emails and internal documents reviewed by The Grayzone reveal details of a cabal of British military and intelligence veterans which plotted to escalate and prolong the Ukraine proxy war “at all costs.” Convened under the direction of the British Ministry of Defense in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the cell referred to itself as Project Alchemy. As British leadership sabotaged peace talks between Kiev and Moscow, the cell put forward an array of plans “to keep Ukraine fighting” by imposing “strategic dilemmas, costs and frictions upon Russia.”

The leaks obtained by The Grayzone expose a hidden hand behind Britain’s policy in Ukraine, showing in unusually granular detail how it aimed to engineer a long, grinding war through covert operations that stretched the bounds of legality.

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Trump in Biden sta različni strani istega kovanca – obupanega poskusa Make America Great Again

23 novembra, 2024 By in gospodarstvo 1 komentar
https://twitter.com/i/status/1859815614283645092

This video is a must-watch. I rarely agree with @brhodes

 But he’s 100% correct here.

He says he’ll “always be haunted” by a comment that Xi Jinping made to Obama in 2016 when referring to Trump: “If an immature leader throws the world into chaos, the world will know who to blame”.

Why does it haunt him? Because in his words “we’ve kind of been dealing with that ever since”.

He mocks Biden’s foreign policy of trying to restore a “Liberal rules-based order with the U.S. at the center of it” (i.e. U.S. primacy) as “designed for the world that doesn’t exist anymore”. Remember Rhodes was Obama’s Deputy National Security Advisor, so it’s quite something to hear him say that…

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Zakaj je Nemčija vedno na napačni strani zgodovine?

23 novembra, 2024 By in gospodarstvo 1 komentar

Opomnik:

  • Nemčija je bila na napačni strani zgodovine v 1. svetovni vojni
  • Nemčija je bila na napačni strani zgodovine v 2. svetovni vojni
  • Nemčija je bila na napačni strani zgodovine v evrski krizi (s politiko varčevanja)
  • Nemčija je na napačni strani zgodovine ob izraelskem genocidu nad Palestinci

Kako je lahko neka država pri vseh ključnih dogodkih v zgodovini vedno izbere napačno stran?