Trumpovo stopnjevanje retorike glede sankcoj proti Rusiji prek sekundarnih carin na države, ki kupujejo ruske energente, je seveda v funkciji tega, da bi Rusiji preprečili popolno zmago v Ukrajini. Glede na to, da ZDA ruskega hitrega napredovanja v Ukrajini ne morejo preprečiti z vojaškimi sredstvi, poskušajo zmanjšati njene prilive od izvoza nafte in plina (da bi nekoč, čez nekaj let, ko bi sedanje zelo visoke ruske devizne rezerve potencialno usahnile, zmanjšale možnost ruskega financiranja nadaljevanja vojne v Ukrajini).  Medtem ko je Kitajska že zelo jasno povedala, da nakup energentov spada v sfero njenih nacionalnih strateških interesov in suverenosti in nakazala, da svojo pozicijo z lahkoto ubrani prek omejitve izvoza kritičnih materialov, je Indija bolj šibka. Sicer je ponovila kitajsko stališče glede strateških nacionalnih interesov in suverenosti odločitev glede nakupa energentov in medtem ko ima možnost pritiska na ZDA prek njene velike vloge izvoza generičnih zdravil, pa je bila politično vedno šibka nasproti ZDA. Toda tudi če bi pokleknila pred Trumpovim pritiskom, bi to imelo predvsem negativne učinke na Trumpove zahteve. Če Indija preneha kupovati rusko nafto, mora preusmeriti nakupe na ostale vire, kar ob povečanem povpraševanju ob konstantni ponudbi nafte pomeni pritisk na globalno višje cene nafte. In pomeni višje cene dizla v Evropi, ki ga evropske države ne bodo mogle več kupovati v Indiji.

Torej Trumpove grožnje s sekundarnimi carinami so bodisi brezzobi tiger ali pa bodo prinesle višje cene energentov za zahodne države in pritisk na porast inflacije. No, in tudi ruske cene nafte, in s tem prilivi od izvoza nafte, bodo porasle, kar ni v skladu s Trumpovimi intencami.

Kot rečeno že nekajkrat: ni mogoče učinkovito sankcionorati države, ki je velik izvoznik kritične dobrine, katere prodaja je cenovno neelastična.

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U.S. President Donald Trump is now largely following his predecessors hostile policy towards Russia.

If the war in Ukraine continues on its current path Russia will end it with an outright victory. The U.S. and its European vassals are trying to impose a ceasefire to prevent that. It would give time to rebuild the Ukrainian army and to restart the war at a more convenient time. But Russia won’t budge until its war aims are met.

A hoped for countermeasure is to pressure Russia’s oil customers, to thereby decrease its income and prevent it from finishing the war in its favor.

When the war started in 2022 the European Union cut its own access to Russian oil and gas supplies. It started to buy more oil from Gulf countries and other producers. India and China were thus suddenly cut of from their traditional suppliers. They started to buy Russian oil. Then U.S. President Joe Biden encouraged that. He did not want global gas prices to rise. Global supplies continued on an unchanged level and the change in the routes of oil around the globe had only a minor effect on prices.

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Genocid nad Palestinci v Gazi ni genocid Netayajujevega režima, je genocid izraelske nacije nad palestinsko. Izraelske otroke sovraštva nad Palestinci sistematično učijo v šoli, tako jih vzgajajo celo življenje, zato mladi izraelski vojaki nimajo nbenih težav sistematično prek sniperjev streljati palestinskih otrok v glavo in genitalije. Ali čakajočih na hrano. In izraelska nacija nima prav nobenih težav s tem, da Palestince do smrti izstrada v Gazi. To izraelska nacija večinsko podpira.

Izraelska nacija nima nobenih težav s tem, da nad Palestinci izvaja to, kar so nacisti izvajali nad Židi – Holokavst.

O tem sem pisal prejšnji teden (Pomen mineralov redke zemlje in globalna strateška odvisnost od Kitajske) – medtem ko se Trump petelini, dviguje, pavzira in spet aktivira carine v obupanem donkihotskem boju proti celemu svetu, so kitajski politiki tiho, vendar zelo učinkoviti. Kitajska vlada je na Trumpovo petelinjenje uvedla zelo preprost, vendar za zahodne države smrtonosen ukrep – uvedla je sistem dovoljenj za izvoz komponent, ki temeljijo na mineralih redkih zemelj. Kitajska kontrolira 90 % globalne ponudbe teh mineralov. Za vsak nakup morajo tuja podjetja natančno specificirati, za katere namene se bodo te komponente uporabljale (predvsem se uporabljajo v električnih motorjih (npr. z neodimom in disprozijem), LED zaslonih in optiki (z europijem, terbijem), pa tudi v katalizatorjih in medicinski diagnostiki (z gadolinijem) ter za zlitine pri ceveh in granatah. Njihova uporaba je nepogrešljiva v zelenih tehnologijah, obrambni in vojaški industriji ter digitalni infrastrukturi).

Če gre za civilno uporabo teh komponent, izvozni posli dobijo zeleno luč. Kitajska vlada pa je eksplicitno prepovedala izvoz teh komponent za uporabo v vojaški industriji. To pomeni, da je zahodna vojaška industrija praktično mrtva, ko bodo pošle zaloge teh komponent. Ni resne alternative zanje, obstaja samo kitajska proizvodnja (90 %). Enako se lahko zgodi ostalim industrijam, če se bo Kitajska prisiljena maščevati na morebitno uvedbo visokih carin s strani ZDA in drugih zahodnih držav. Kot so povedali nekateri ameriški direktorji, imajo podjetja z največjimi zalogami teh komponent zalog le za 2 do 3 mesece.

No, zdaj so to – z grozo – ugotovili tudi v Wall Street Journalu.

China’s long term planning has allowed it to acquire some serious advantages which it now uses to counter economic and other attacks on it.

The refining of rare earth metals and the production of magnets from them is only one of several advantages it gained. These metals are not really rare. They are usually byproducts of large extractions of other minerals. But their refinement was considered to be environmentally dirty. It is only profitable at a large scale. Over the last two decades China has managed to create a near monopoly in it.

Rare earth magnets, while small in size, end up in a myriad of products. They are cheap but essential and difficult to replace.

As soon as the Trump administration tried to put high tariffs on China the country hit back. The export of rare earth products were stopped until a licensing process had been put into place.

The products are now considered to be dual-use items. China will allow the export of them for civilian purposes but it denies their use for the production of weapons. It wants to prevent to be hit by U.S. missiles which have ‘Made in China’ labeled parts in them. It is difficult to blame it for that.

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Če anglosaksonci kaj obvladajo, so to inscenirane sabotaže velikega obsega, nad katerimi so vsi  presenečeni.

The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) reported a planned terrorist attack in international waters

According to information received by the SVR, the British intelligence services are planning to involve NATO allies in launching a mass raid on the “shadow fleet”.

According to London’s plan, such a campaign should be triggered by a high-profile incident involving one or more tankers. The plan calls for organizing a major act of sabotage, the damage from which will make it possible to declare the transportation of Russian oil a threat to all international shipping.

This will free up the West’s hands in choosing methods of counteraction. Ultimately, this could involve detaining any “suspicious” vessels in international waters and escorting them to the ports of NATO states.

The British are working on two potential casus belli:

1️. The first is to stage an accident with an “unwanted” tanker in one of the narrow points of sea communications (for example, in a strait). An oil spill and blocking of the fairway, as London believes, will provide NATO countries with “sufficient” grounds to create a precedent of an “emergency inspection” of a vessel allegedly for compliance with maritime safety requirements and environmental standards.

2. The second scenario involves setting fire to a tanker during loading in a port of a state friendly to Russia. It is assumed that the fire will cause significant damage to the port infrastructure and spread to other vessels, which will require an international investigation.

👉 London intends to entrust the execution of both terrorist attacks to Ukrainian security forces. Their predictably dirty work and inability to “cover their tracks” are seen by the British as a guarantee of their own impunity

The UK intends to choose the moment for the attack in order to use the media effect from it to put pressure on the Trump administration. The goal is to force Washington, contrary to its national interests, to adopt the most severe secondary sanctions against buyers of Russian energy resources, who will appear to be “indirect culprits of the tragedy.”

Vir: Levan Gudadze

Še enkrat – EU je v drugem desetletju stagnacije. Medtem ko je rasla počasneje od drugih že prej, pa zadnjih 17 let stojimo na mestu, medtem ko drugi rastejo.

Vse, kar Donald Trump ni. Čeprav je 2-krat nategnil pol Amerike, da se bori za interese delavcev, ki so zaradi globalizacije izgubili službe. Nato pa jih nategnil tako, da je znižal davke za premožne, za preostale pa uvedel nov prodajni davek v obliki carin, s čimer bo pokrival izpad davčnih prilivov.

P.S.

V tej verziji so mi všeč predvsem kitare v drugem delu pesmi. Sicer pa je moja favorite verzija pesmi ena izmed izvedb od Marianne Faithful.

Res je bizarno, kako Trump in nejgovi najbližji svetovalci in sodelavci, ki zasedajo ključne položaje v njegovi administraciji (Navarro, Bessent, Luttnick), nimajo pojma o osnovah makroekonomije in mednarodne trgovine. Jeffrey Sachs jim je ameriški trgovinski deficit na zelo plastičen način razložil s primerom deficita na kreditnih karticah. Bolje in lepše je skoraj nemogoče razložiti.

Tudi v najbolj zmešanem, najbolj  ortodoksnem, najbolj libertarnem, najbolj proizraelskem taboru lahko pride do upora. Proti še bolj zmešanemu, bolj ortodoksnemu, bolj libertarnemu in bolj proizraelskemu predsedniku. Pa ne zato, ker bi bil preveč zmešan, preveč ortodoksen, preveč libertaren in preveč proizraelski, pač pa, ker je preveč – avtoritaren. Tokratni enoglasni upor (brez glasu proti) v republikanskem taboru je upor proti temu, da bi v času počitnic Donald Trump imenoval preveč sebi podobnih sociopatov na ključne položaje brez senatne potrditve.

Vendar ne upajte preveč, sociopatska senatna združba  se bo še naprej perfektno skladala  s sociopatskim predsednikom glede vseh ostalih ukrepov.  Enaki tiči so se našli na kupu.  In zdaj vladajo.

Senate GOP Blocks Trump’s Recess Appointments in Stunning Rebuke — MAGA Cracks Widen

In a rare show of quiet defiance, the U.S. Senate—including every Republican—agreed on August 2, 2025, to a procedural maneuver that blocks President Trump from making recess appointments during the August break. The move, pushed forward by Senate Majority Leader John Thune, was adopted by unanimous consent—a clear sign that cracks in Trump’s grip on the GOP are spreading to the very heart of the Senate.

By scheduling pro forma sessions every three days, the Senate technically remains “in session,” thereby preventing Trump from bypassing confirmation votes to fill executive and judicial vacancies—a tactic he has hinted at using amid standoffs over controversial nominees.

The Supreme Court has previously ruled that such sessions are sufficient to deny the president recess appointment power, meaning Trump can’t shove through loyalists while Congress is away. And make no mistake—this was aimed directly at Trump.

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