Zgodba glede “odblokiranja” dvojne blokade Hormuške ožine bi bila podobna telenoveli, če ne bi imela tako resnih posledic. Očitno je, da Trump ne more prisiliti Irana, da odpre Hormuz. Očitno je, da tega ne more storiti tudi s pomorsko blokado 300 milj jugovzhodno od Hormuza, ki je hkrati porozna za iranske tankerje z nafto za Kitajsko, ki plujejo mimo ameriške blokade v teritorialnih vodah Pakistana. Očitno je, da Trump ne more odpreti Hormuza z v nedeljo objavljeno napovedjo, da bodo ameriške vojaške ladje omogočile prehod tujim tankerjem. Trump je v naslednji sapi zanikal vojaško spremstvo tankerjev. Včeraj – ko je Iran napadel dve ameriški vojaški ladji, ki sta se preveč približali Hormuzu – pa je močno zmanjšal utrpljeno škodo (po tem, ko se je ameriško vojaško poveljstvo ves dan trudilo zanikati kakršnikoli napad ali škodo), hkrati pa upravičil iranski napad na naftni terminal v Emiratih.

Edini način, da bi Trump uspel nasilno odpreti Hormuško ožino, je, če bi vojaško porazil Iran. Popolnoma. Tega pa ne more, ker ameriška vojska nima sredstev za to. Tudi v primeru jedrskega napada bi iranske rakete (najbrž opremeljene z jedrskimi konicami) še vedno letele iz iranskih podzemnih raketnih mest, vkopanih globoko v iranske gore in dizajnirane za jedrske napade. Iran je trdnjava, ki je vojaško ni mogoče poraziti.

Edini način za odprtje Hormuške ožine pelje skozi pogajanja z Iranom, vendar po iranskih pogojih. To pomeni garancijo, da ZDA in Izrael nikoli več ne bosta napadli Irana, to pomeni popolni vojaški umik ZDA iz Zaliva, to pomeni odpravo vseh sankcij na Iran in to pomeni, da Iran tudi de iure kontrolira Hormuško ožino. 

To je tudi politično, ekonomsko in vojaško najcenejši in najbolj vzdržen način za ZDA in za svet. Le da se ga Trump in njegovi izraelski lastniki še ne želijo zavedati. Še vedno brcajo v obupu.

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The Iranians called his buff. It’s just a fact that denial of commercial transit is far, far easier than securing navigation. It cannot be done without disarming Iran. This little episode reinforces Iranian control of Hormuz.

There was also ‘a threat that leaves something to chance’ in his stratagem. He was daring the Iranians to run the risk of war to enforce their control of Hormuz. The Iranians did not flinch.

Where does this episode leave us?

First, Hormuz will not reopen until at least a preliminary deal is reached with Iran. And that still requires lifting the blockade and ordering the Israelis to stand down in Lebanon.

Second, he tried this cheap trick because the fundamental reality is that the US is out of real alternatives to actual two-sided negotiations.

Frozen conflict with Hormuz closed continuously tightens the noose around his neck. Going back to war will not only run down the US magazine, likely lead to the closure of the Red Sea as well, and cause massive destruction in UAE and Israel at least. It also runs the risk of further unrecoverable losses for the US military itself, including the destruction of the surviving bases.

Even if he is prepared to pay the full price, as the hasbara commissars are demanding, it is highly improbable that the US can defeat Iran, since the only way to defeat Iran is to disarm it, and by now it is beyond reasonable doubt that the US does not have the capability to do that.

No one said losing the empire was going to be cake walk. It’s humiliating. It requires a fundamental reconsideration of the picture of the world in their heads. It’s going to be a drawn-out, violent process. But gaps between discourse and reality can only close in one direction.