Direktorji največjih ameriških naftnih družb so dali košarico predsedniku Trumpu, ko jih je pozval, naj dvignejo proizvodnjo nafte, da bi lahko znižali njene cene. Vsi po vrsti pravijo, da bi sicer lahko, vendar to ni v njihovi strategiji. Njihova strategija je, da kolikor se da dolgo pobirajo smetano na trgu oziroma keširajo darilo, ki jim ga je dal Trump v obliki skoraj podvojene cene nafte po ameriško-izraelskem napadu an Iran.

Težko je reči, da nimajo racionalne strategije za razliko od Trumpa. Trump bo s svojo spodletelo “ekskurzijo” v Iran  sicer obogatil naftno in orožarsko industrijo, toda ceno bodo plačali on in republikanci na letošnjih vmesnih volitvah. Ameriški volilci so občutljivi predvsem na inflacijo in cene bencina. Tega ne oprostijo nobenemu predsedniku.

No, big oil is not at the beck and call of the White House! Exxon and Chevron defy Trump pressure to boost oil production

ExxonMobil and Chevron have defied calls from the White House to increase oil production, resisting pressure from an administration that is struggling to end the biggest energy crisis in decades. Exxon’s chief financial officer Neil Hansen told the FT there had been “no change” to the company’s strategy in the Permian Basin, the dominant US oil and gas region, while Chevron’s finance chief Eimear Bonner said “the crisis has not prompted any change to any of our plans”. The Iran war has slashed production across the Gulf and hit refining operations in the Middle East and beyond, triggering an energy shock that threatens to fuel inflation across the world. Oil prices on Thursday rose to $126 a barrel, the highest level since the start of the war, while US petrol prices have soared to more than $4 a gallon, undermining President Donald Trump’s campaign pledge to bring them below $2 and make life cheaper for Americans.

The government has released oil from the strategic petroleum reserve and called for more drilling from the industry, but the two US supermajors are holding firm on their prewar strategies. “There’s really no need for us to shift up because we’re already up, we’re already in high gear,” Hansen said. “That doesn’t mean we aren’t looking at the potential to expand that but there are limitations.” Bonner said “we could grow in the Permian but that’s not the strategy we have. Our strategy is to grow free cash flow, not grow production.” She added: “You wouldn’t expect us to be changing our plans significantly on the back of eight weeks of disruption.”

Source: Stephanie Findlay in Financial Times

A garden hose in an Olympic pool

Exxon and Chevron are not alone in hesitating to change their drilling plans, according to a survey of oil and gas executives last month by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Most respondents thought U.S. oil production would be flat or rise this year by less than 250,000 barrels a day, or about 2 percent, because of the war in Iran — if it rose at all. That would replace less than 3 percent of the 10 million barrels of oil or more that the world has lost each day the Strait of Hormuz has been closed. Iran and the United States are both restricting traffic in the shipping artery, which separates Iran from the Arabian Peninsula. Even slightly higher U.S. production growth would be “nothing compared to the size of the issue,” Kaes Van’t Hof, chief executive of Diamondback Energy, said at a Columbia University energy conference in April. “Compared to the global problem, that’s like putting a garden hose into an Olympic-size swimming pool that’s been emptied,” said Mr. Van’t Hof, whose company is based in Midland, Texas.

Source: Rebecca F. Elliott in New York Times

Source: Dallas Fed

Vir: Adam Tooze