Coercive bargaining does not stop when the weapons stop firing. It continues with threats and counter-threats, as each side tries to pressure the other side into concessions.

Iran has a great deal of leverage here. It has proven that the US cannot forcibly retake Hormuz, suppress Iranian fire across the gulf, protect its own assets, or coerce Iran into capitulation. It can close Hormuz outright to put pressure on the US, or selectively to punish specific actors (eg, UAE). It still retains weapons in reserve; above all, the Houthis.

The US can threaten to attack Iran again. But both sides now know that the US does not have a military solution here, so this is not a good outside option. So what can the US do to pressure Iran? Very hard to detect any powerful sources of leverage for the US.

We are faced, then, with the same “upside-down” asymmetry between the two great powers. The US may be vastly stronger in general, but it is Iran that has the clear upper hand in the negotiations.