The US will not formally leave Nato. In any case, this is not necessary for the White House to cause irreparable damage to the alliance. Beyond casting credible doubt about Nato’s Article 5 mutual defence clause, the US President can also refuse to share intelligence with Nato partners — and with Ukraine. Trump can put a halt on weapons deliveries, and restrict the export of security-related technologies like Joe Biden did with China. Unlike China, Europe is not in a position to invent its own digital technologies.

EU leaders don’t seem to have thought through this course of action. At most, they have notational strategies, but there is a total absence of European-wide strategic thinking, especially in matters of security and energy. Had the EU been serious about strategic autonomy, leaders would have pooled their procurement and developed defence strategies which aren’t driven by industrial interests. They would have adopted a common energy policy, and struck diversified strategic partnerships with raw material importers. None of this is possible without a political and fiscal union. And if this is politically unrealistic, then surely it is also unrealistic for the EU to trigger a split in the transatlantic alliance.

Vir: Wolfgang Münchau, UnHerd