Trumpa so že vsi pogruntali. Iranski oficirji se na TV odkrito norčujejo iz njegovega vzorca eskalacijske / deeskalacijske retorike. Trump, kar se tiče njegove in Netanyahujeve zasebne vojne proti Iranu, vedno retorično eskalira po zaprtju finančnih trgov (običajno pred vikendom), nato pa pred odprtjem finančnih trgov (običajno v ponedeljek) spet retorično deeskalira, da borzne kotacije ne bi padle in da terminske cene nafte ne bi porasle. Spodnja slika iz Financial Timesa lepo ilustrira ta vzorec.

Drugače rečeno, Trump je zelo glasen, ko to nima finančnih posledic za njega in njegovo druščino. Oziroma vse dela z namenom maksimiranja finančnih koristi zase in njegovo druščino.

Toda vzorec Trumpovih preobratov je še globlji. Na finančnih trgih se je v zadnjem času uveljavila anekdotična ideja o tako imenovanih »TACO momentih« (TACO = Trump Always Chickens Out) – trenutkih, ko politični pritisk in tržni signali prisilijo Trumpa v spremembo retorike ali konkretnih ukrepov. Kar se je sprva zdelo kot neformalna interpretacija njegovega vodenja politike, je zdaj dobilo tudi bolj strukturirano analitično obliko. In sicer, ekonomist Maximilian Uleer, eden izmed strategistov pri Deutsche Bank, je namreč razvil t. i. »pressure index«, ki naj bi služil kot približek za napovedovanje prihodnjih političnih prilagoditev Trumpa. TACO indeks kaže, kdaj se bo Trump umaknil oziroma sprejel odločitev, ki negira njegovo prejšnjo odločitev pod vplivom bolečine – kombinacije političnih, makroekonomskih in tržnih pritiskov.

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Definicija velesile (John Mearsheimer):

Vprašanje je le ali bo šlo za razporejen poskus invazije (kopenski napad iz Zahoda, zračni napad na otok Kharg in zračno-pomorski napad na otok Qeshm in iransko obalo vzdolž Hormuške ožine) ali pa se bo poskus invazije osredotočil le na Hormuško ožino (ob hkratnem letalskem obstreljevanju). Zanimivo bo videti, kako je Iran pripravljen na te variante in kako se bo končala ta ameriška avantura – kot britanski Gallipoli leta 1915 ali kot ameriški Caracas leta 2026.

Toda čeprav je edina racionalna varianta, ki pomeni najnižje stroške za Trumpa in ZDA, takojšen umik, pa je verjetnost, da se bo Trumpo zanjo odločil, dokaj majhna. Ujel se je v vojno, ki je ne more zmagati, v vojno, ki njemu, njegovi stranki in njegovi državi škodi in vojno, katere nadaljevanje bo pomenilo katastrofo (tako ekonomsko kot strateško), tako za geostrateški položaj ZDA kot za obstoj Izraela, vendar mu ego ne dovoljuje izhoda. Zato se bo odločil za samomor – za eskalacijo. Tipična eskalacijska past. Tako je propadla večina imperijev – ena vojna preveč.

There are three theories of air power. We know Douhetist terror bombing has never destroyed the will of the enemy to fight. Decapitation has now failed. As long as the US remains ‘up in the air’ there is only one path to avoiding strategic defeat: winning the interdiction war to disarm Iran.

The interdiction theory of victory is ‘analytically attractive’ because it empirically testable in real time. If Iranian strike tempo is dwindling to zero, the US is winning; otherwise it is losing outright.

The all-important interdiction war is going very poorly. I look at the attached map every day from ACLED, the gold standard of conflict data (https://acleddata.com/iran-crisis-live). Iranian strike tempo shows no sign of dwindling.

To the contrary, depletion of interceptor inventories and the use of heavier missiles has dramatically increased the effectiveness of Iranian missile strikes, as we are seeing in the strikes on Israel. 

The Iranians’ interdiction/counterforce campaign has  been surprisingly successful. At least 10 radars have been destroyed, partially blinding US forces and interceptor systems. US bases in the region have been largely evacuated, forcing the US to use European bases.

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Tudi Goldman Sachs in International Energy Agency potrjujeta, kar sem tudi že sam pisal pred dvema tednoma, da bo sedanji naftni šok največji v zgodovini – večji kot kombinacija šokov 1979 in 2022. Tudi če bi jutri dobili mirovni sporazum med ZDA in Iranom ter odprtje Hormuške ožine, bi trajalo še najmanj 3-4 mesece, preden bi se naftni trg spet normaliziral. In cene nafte naj bi ostale povišane  – na ravni okrog 80 $/sodček do 2029 (za 20 $/sodček oziroma za eno tretjino višje kot pred vojno).

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V četrtek je “plačilni dan”. V četrtek naj bi na zahtevo Trumpa in Ursule von der Leyen Evropski parlament ratificiral sramotni trgovinski “dogovor” med ZDA in EU. In sramotno je, da EU prostovoljno rine v bistveno dražjo odvisnost od ZDA. Vsakomur, ki ima minimum pojma o poslovnem svetu ali o življenju, je jasno, da je pogajalsaka moč največja, ko imaš na voljo alternative, in najmanjša oziroma ničelna, ko nimaš nobene alternative. Le tem ženskam, ki vodijo EU, to ni jasno.

President Trump just told 450 million Europeans: sign my deal by Thursday or I cut your gas. And if you think this is impulsive, you are not paying attention. This is the most calculated energy play in American history.

Qatar’s LNG is offline. Force Majeure. Ras Laffan shut after Iranian drones hit it on Day 3. Seventeen percent of global LNG capacity gone for 3 to 5 years. Russia’s pipeline gas to Europe was severed after Ukraine. Norway is maxed. Europe’s LNG prices have surged 35 to 50 percent since Hormuz closed. One supplier remains at scale: the United States. Trump’s ambassador to the EU just told the Parliament: ratify the $750 billion trade deal without amendments by Thursday March 26, or lose “favorable access” to American LNG.

Now decode the strategic geopolitical chess game which is being played in realtime.

Saturday night, Trump posted a 48-hour ultimatum threatening to obliterate Iranian power plants. That was not about Iran. That was about oil prices. He needed them high enough to terrify Europe into ratifying the LNG deal, but not so high that American consumers revolted before the midterms. The ultimatum spiked Brent past $113 and WTI past $100 on Sunday. Monday morning, Trump posted about “productive conversations” and paused the power plant strikes for five days. Oil crashed over 10 percent in hours. WTI hit $89. The S&P surged $2 trillion.

He spiked oil to create the fear. Then crashed it to create the relief. The fear makes Europe sign. The relief makes American voters forgive the war. Both moves serve the same president. Both happened within 36 hours. Both were executed with social media posts, not missiles.

The $750 billion deal is the permanent monetisation of Europe’s energy vulnerability. LNG. Oil. Civil nuclear. Locked in until 2028. The EU had been delaying ratification for months. Three wars removed every alternative: Iran removed Qatar, Ukraine removed Russia, Norway’s geology removed Norway. What remains is American LNG. Trump is not selling gas. He is selling the absence of alternatives.

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