Tole spodaj je najboljši opis tega, kar se nam bo zgodilo, če Trump ne prekine te vojne takoj. Prihaja kot snežni plaz, ki ga vsi opazujejo in podcenjujejo, misleč, da je nekako pod kontrolo in da ne bo dosegel njih. Dokler ni prepozno…

Ko zmanjka petina nafte, nastopi racioniranje na črpalkah, ampak to še nekako gre. Toda ko zmanjka tretjina umetnih gnojil, ni setve in ni hrane za tretjino sveta. Ko zmanjka petina LNG plina, Nizozemske tople grede več ne more pridelovati zelenjave. Ko zmanjka tretjina helija, se tajvanska proizvodnja čipov zaustavi. Ko zmanjka skoraj polovica žvepla, izpade skoraj polovica predelave kritičnih materialov (litij, nikelj, kobalt, redke zemeljske kovine (REE), grafit, baker, uran, fosfati), ki so ključni za sodobne proizvode visoke tehnologije (baterije) in proizvodnjo umetnih gnojil. 

Vse to vemo, pa vendar se zdi, da ves svet ležerno opazuje in podcenjuje ta plaz, ki se vali nad nas.

This is a perfect illustration of how we perceive the Hormuz risk.

Everyone is seeing the avalanche coming, yet everyone thinks that somehow it is under control… it isn’t.

There is no plan. No alternative routes that can scale fast enough… Hormuz opened or closed is all that matters.

The current avalanche is so big and dangerous that markets think this will resolve quickly due to the heavy economic costs… it won’t.

One month in, we hear reports that this operation might take from a few weeks to six months, to years… the avalanche will hit much earlier

Within a few weeks:

– Taiwan runs out of LNG -> no AI

– Fertilizer supplies are getting decimated -> no food

– Japan, Europe, Australia run out of diesel

The only thing keeping markets afloat is an unreasonably high amount of hopium… once it’s gone, expect a violent rerating