Wall Street Journal:
“The precise size of the U.S. stock of air-defense interceptors—what the Pentagon calls magazine depth—is classified. But repeated conflicts with Iran and its proxies in the Middle East have been eating into the supply of air defenses in the region.”
In 12 day war, some evidence Iran conserved many missiles, including its more capable ones, in case war spiraled.
They understand the missile defense math is on their side and can potentially wait US out.
The problem: Iran drones and missiles are cheap and easy to replace. But missile defense interceptions are expensive and time consuming to build.
US might run out before they do, and they can out produce missiles compared to US interceptor production.
It’s the same broad cost-exchange problem US encountered fighting the Houthis, armed by Iran with similar cheap capabilities. That was less about interceptors/missile defense than premier U.S. guided missiles vs. cheap launchers.
US spent $7 billion bombing Houthis over about 6-7 weeks and failed to degrade Houthis’ ability to attack.
The problem v. Iran is much worse because on top of expensive offensive munitions, US and Israel are burning through defensive munitions (interceptors) too.
Trump says he wanted regime change but it seems like he thought that could happen in a week — or otherwise perhaps hoped remnants of Iran regime would “lay down arms” for “immunity.”
What happens if Iran still attacking Gulf targets a week from now, with interceptor stocks even more critical?
The level of overconfidence coming from the White House and Trump is astounding.
DAMIJAN blog 