Inženirjem te vojne ne bo všeč, kako se utegne končati

1 marca, 2026 By in gospodarstvo 2 komentarja

I may have been the only analyst to predict this in advance. Now pls listen to me carefully.

The US and Israel do not have a theory of victory. There was two very hard-to-solve problems with their war planning. 

  • US-Israeli war aims are, preferably, to permanently remove Iran from the ranks of the confrontation states by toppling the regime; failing that, to disarm Iran by destroying its missile arsenal.
  • Regime change cannot be accomplished by aerial bombardment. It has never been done. Without ground-force partners, there is no way to control political developments on the ground. Air coercion is simply not up to the task.
  • What can be accomplished, if one is prepared to expend much of one’s magazine, is crippling and fragmenting the state. But that expands rather than constrains the possibility space. This is not a path to a clear victory for the Western powers.
  • The second problem is even more immediate. This is the issue that the Iranian arsenal is simply too large for the US to disarm it. And now that, as I predicted, they are going for counter-value strikes on soft targets, how do you protect the oil monarchies? And if you can’t do that, then how you contain this? How do you prevent Iran from wrecking financial markets, the world economy, the Trump presidency, and the GOP for a generation?
  • There are considerable risks of escalation here. The White House needs to game plan the exit plan here. There is no clear path to victory. And the risks are multiplying by the hour. You are not going to like where this ends up.

 

Everybody is concentrating on the Iranians shutting the Strait of Hormuz. But that’s not the worst case scenario.

@policytensor makes the point that the worst case scenario is that Tehran starts destroying the Gulf’s entire oil and gas infrastructure. The strategic need is there: only the threat of severe pain will make the US stop, and the closer the regime comes to collapse, the higher their risk tolerance will be. Furthermore, as we are now seeing, Saudi, the UAE and other states, save Oman, are co-belligerents.

All the main fields and ports are within short-range missile (or even artillery!) range of the Iranian coast. Furthermore, all those areas are majority Shia, a population that has been brutally oppressed for decades (much like the population in Iran, ironically enough).

So, the worst case scenario is that the Iranians, with some combination of missile/drone attacks and Shia militias start destroying the oil wells and processing infrastructure. I cannot remember who pointed out that when the Iraqis retreated from Kuwait in 91, they set the oil fields on fire and it took a year to put them all out.

If oil markets start pricing this in, the benchmarks—Brent, and then later, WTI—are going to be well north of a hundred.

And what then?

If oil stays there because the Strait is shut long term, then it is possible that Trump imposes export controls on US oil and gas to hold prices down before the midterms. And what then for Europe? No Russian oil and gas, no Gulf oil and gas. Only American, which Trump might stop for political gain. So what then?

This is the worst case scenario, as described by @policytensor. I am less convinced. The Iranians have threatened a big game before and not done it. This time does feel different, but I will believe it when I see it.

Still, we must ask the EU+UK to start considering this possibility.

En odgovor

  1. Mit o “kirurškem” napadu: Zakaj se Trumpov gambit že sesuva

    Zahodni establišment je znova postal žrtev lastnega napuha. 28. februarja 2026 so Združene države in Izrael sprožili tisto, kar so poimenovali “Operacija Epski bes” (Operation Epic Fury) – masiven, “kirurški” napad z namenom obglavljenja, ki naj bi v enem samem koncu tedna strl Islamsko republiko. Do 1. marca so v ruševinah teheranske četrti Pasteur našli trupla vrhovnega voditelja ajatole Alija Hameneja in desetine visokih uradnikov (res presenetljiva naivnost iranskih visokih funkcionarjev, da se zberejo v živo na sestanku, na znani lokaciji). Predsednik Trump, večno v vlogi trgovca z ameriško vsemogočnostjo, je pohitel z izjavo, da misija poteka “pred predvidenim rokom”.

    Toda ko se nad Zalivom dviga dim, postaja jasno, da Washington ni dosegel mojstrske poteze, temveč je sprožil katastrofalno vojno izčrpavanja, na katero je v svojem bistvu popolnoma nepripravljen.

    Paralela z Ukrajino: napačna presoja iz napuha
    Paralele z začetnimi dnevi ukrajinskega konflikta je nemogoče spregledati. Tako kot so načrtovalci v Moskvi predvidevali, da bo “premoč” njihove konvencionalne sile privedla do 72-urne zmage v Kijevu, Washington predvideva, da bosta njegova zračna in pomorska prevlada prisilili Teheran v “spremembo režima”.

    Pozabili so, da “premoč na papirju” pomeni malo, ko se soočiš z odpornim, ideološkim nasprotnikom, ki se je pripravljen spustiti v totalno vojno za preživetje. Kljub obglavljenju vodstva se Iran ni vdal. Namesto tega je začasni vodstveni svet že sprožil povračilno ofenzivo brez primere.

    Logistika poraza: “municijska uganka”
    Medtem ko zahodni komentatorji slavijo natančnost nevidnih bombnikov, trda matematika konflikta pripoveduje drugačno zgodbo. ZDA in Izrael so ujeti v logistično past: trenutno trošita vrhunske prestreznike zračne obrambe – sisteme THAAD in SM-3, ki stanejo milijone na izstrelitev – da bi sestrelila iranske drone in rakete, ki stanejo le delček tega zneska. To ni vzdržna obramba, temveč hitra likvidacija vojaškega kapitala.

    Dubajska spremenljivka in multipolarni pritisk
    Dubaj, mesto, kjer 90 % prebivalstva predstavljajo tujci, je krhek gospodarski čudež. V trenutku, ko so ostanki raket padli na luksuzne simbole, kot je Burj Al Arab, je mit o “varnem zavetju” umrl. To ogromno prebivalstvo nima nobene lojalnosti do regionalne vojne; njihova življenja in kapital so prenosljivi in bodo pobegnili ob prvem znaku dolgotrajnega zastoja, kar bo zalivske monarhije prisililo, da zapustijo Washington, če bodo želele rešiti lastna gospodarstva.

    Pekingu in Moskvi prozahodni Iran strateško ne ustreza. Kitajska je že začela zategovati vajeti pri izvozu redkih zemeljskih kovin, kar neposredno ogroža sposobnost ameriške obrambne industrije, da obnovi svoje izpraznjene zaloge raket.

    Jedrska senca
    Nazadnje se moramo soočiti z najbolj grozljivo spremenljivko: jedrsko opcijo. Čeprav danes ni verjetna, ostaja ultimativni “črni labod”. Trumpova kratka politična potrpežljivost in njegova znamka “miru skozi silo” puščata malo prostora za vojno izčrpavana v slogu Ukrajine. Če se bo Washington znašel v situaciji, ko bodo njegovi prestrezniki izčrpani, regionalna oporišča pa preplavljena, bo pritisk za uporabo taktičnega “reset” gumba, ki bi prisilil Iran v kapitulacijo, postal svetovno pretresljiva možnost.

    Ne spremljamo rojstva “Novega Bližnjega vzhoda”. Spremljamo zadnji, obupani preseg unipolarne sile, ki je pozabila, kako zmagati, a hkrati noče priznati svojega zatona.

    Še preglednica scenarijev:

    1. Atricijsko izčrpavanje (Ukrajina 2.0) 55 % – 60 %
    Iranska odpornost, “podpora iz senc” (RU/CN) in izčrpanost zahodnih zalog protizračnega streliva.
    2. Pogajalski izhod za “rešitev obraza” 25 % – 30 %
    Pritisk zalivskih držav zaradi gospodarskega zloma in Trumpova želja po hitrem končanju vojne.
    3. “Obupani reset” (Nenadna eskalacija) 10 % – 15 %
    Trumpova nestrpnost ob večjem vojaškem neuspehu (npr. potop letalonosilke ali velike žrtve).
    4. Čista “venezuelska” sprememba < 5 %
    V bistvu izključeno zaradi smrti Hameneja, ki je poenotila iranske nacionaliste in vojsko.
    5. Jedrski “Presek” (Black Swan) 1 % – 2 %
    Končna eskalacija v primeru konvencionalnega zloma zahodne obrambe ali eksistencialne grožnje Izraelu.

    Za zaključek pa sveži tvit Nasema Taleba:
    I wonder if the founding fathers conceived of the possibility that the U.S. government could be controlled by a recently established small Polish-Ukrainian colony in the Near East.

    Sestavljeno s pomočjo Google Gemini

    Liked by 2 people

    • Mislim da ni realne jedrske nevarnosti s strani ZDA, ta je najbolj verjetna pri Izraelu, ti manijaki so sposobni poseči po Samson opciji v primeru, če bi Iran dobro opustošil Izrael.

      Všeč mi je