Spodaj je zelo dober komentar Patricie Marins o usodni napaki Evrope, ki živi v iluziji iz pradavnine, (1) da lahko s sankcijami zavre razvoj konkurenčnih držav in (2) da lahko brez napora ohrani svoj globalni status. Po fenomenalnem tehnološkem in gospodarskem vzponu Kitajske in njeni globalni trgovinski dominaciji je postalo jasno, da zahodne države ne morejo več učinkovito sankcionirati velikih držav. Ne Kitajske, ne Rusije, ne Irana, ne Brazilije…. Kajti danes je globalna moč Kitajske tista zaščita, ki sankcioniranim državam daje zavetje in jih s trgovinskimi, tehnološkimi in finančnimi povezavami zaščiti pred izolacijo. In še huje je, sankcije delujejo kontraproduktivno – namesto da bi zavrle, še bolj pospešijo tehnološki razvoj sankcioniranih držav.

Še posebej problematična je pozicija Evrope, kjer je tehnološki razvoj povsem zamrl oziroma se zadušil v hiper regulaciji in makroekonomskem fokusu na fiskalnem varčevanju namestu spodbujanju rasti in razvoja. Evropska industrija je postala glonalno nekonkurenčna in čez 10 let bo obseg kitajske trgovine z Latinsko Ameriko in z Afriko že presegel tako kitajsko trgovino z Evropo kot evropsko trgovino s temi kontinenti. Evropa bo postala globalna tretja liga.

Res mi ni jasno, kako v Evropi nihče med politiki tega ne razume.

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When I see the news about suffocating China with more sanctions citing Boeing, I remember that the Chinese are already flying an aircraft with national engine and avionics, and the Russians are heading down the same path.

The Chinese are developing simultaneously not one, but four commercial aviation engines simultaneously, with one model already flying in tests for over a year.

They will not only enter this market competitively, but they will also cover whatever is missing from the Russian materials to compete in the market.

Sanctions have turbocharged Chinese industrial development and, to a certain extent, Russia’s as well. But Chinese development has been frightening; it doesn’t compare to Russia’s or any other.

In the face of U.S. sanctions, they went from 14 nm chips in 2020 to 7 nm chips in 2023 and plan to present a 5 nm chip by the end of the year, while today they already have domestic machines for 28 nm chips. Only the U.S. had put the Chinese on the chip blacklist, and after a few years, the Chinese banned NVIDIA precisely because they evolved their domestic industry so quickly.

I’m talking about chips, but the pressure from sanctions activated an entire chain of research in China far beyond what the U.S. predicted. They are flying not one or two, but three prototypes of sixth-generation aircraft.

The Western sanctions mechanism always aims to delay the evolution of something specific or of an entire nation, but with large economies, this effect is inverse. The West gained no time at all and, quite the contrary.

It gained no time mainly because it did nothing different from what it had been doing.

The West behaves like the typical case of the children who inherited their parents’ business: they are watching it become outdated and have no idea how to reverse it, because they have always been more interested in reaping the fruits.

There is still time for the U.S. and Europe, but the solution is far beyond sanctions.

Citing Europe, for example, the continent not only severed its relations with a major raw materials supplier, which is Russia, for obvious reasons, but has also had a bad time in its relations with Africa. What future plan can come out of this?

At the current pace, in about 15 years, the trade volume between China and Europe will be smaller than that between China and Africa. Similarly, in less than 10 years, the Chinese volume with Latin America should be greater than with Europe. In other words, Europe will not change the wind; it will just let it pass, a big mistake.

There is a complete lack of planning, long-term vision, and understanding of the challenging scenario they face precisely because they refuse to engage in the economic game; they always want to focus on sanctioning competitors. The world has changed a lot, and it’s no longer possible to sanction large economies, and the Ukrainian war let it clear, but this realization hasn’t sunk in in the West, which in recent years has created enormous bureaucracy for approving policies and development projects. The world must be preserved, but this has to be done without stopping development.

This crisis will not be resolved with bullets.

If the West doesn’t move, entering the game, the Chinese will break the few monopolies that the West still holds.

Another phenomenon is that the Chinese are serving as an example for other Asian nations, boosting an entire mentality of long-term planning, a lot of R&D, and a lot of infrastructure.

Vir: Patricia Marins