Toel bo postalo izjemno pomembno vprašanje v naslednjih mesecih. Kritično vprašanje za nadaljnji obstoj EU. Brez Amerike kot hegemona je EU brezglava kokoš. Novi nemški kancler Merz in francoski predsedni Macron se bosta začela tepsti za primat, Italija in Poljska bosta želeli rotirajoče mesto voditelja, vzhodnoevropske države pa bodo vlekle vsaka na svoje. Pričakujte trende kot pred 1. in 2. svetovno vojno ali kot v 19. stoletju. Boj za prevlado.

In dezintegracija EU kot prvi korak postaja realna nevarnost.

Beyond all the ridicule this post rightly receives, it also illustrates an issue a Europe split from the US might face sooner rather than later: who can credibly be said to be its leader? Because I can guarantee you that the French or Italians wouldn’t be too happy with the idea of Germany’s Merz as their leader, or Ursula Von Der Leyen for that matter…

In fact this leadership vacuum is undoubtedly more consequential than the immediate Ukraine crisis. The question was kind of swept under the carpet under American hegemony but if that’s not the case anymore (which would be a good thing: high time Europe takes its destiny into its own hands), Europe absolutely has to figure out an efficient and legitimate decision-making framework. Otherwise it’ll either rapidly fall back into the conflicts that have plagued its entire history until the end of WW2, or suffer institutional paralysis that’ll keep it impotent and irrelevant.

Vir: Arnaud Bertrand via X