Deset dni po prevzemu oblasti je Donald Trump začel z “izpolnjevanjem obljub” glede uvedbe carin. V prvem koraku je uvedel splošno 25 % carinsko stopnjo na uvoz vseh proizvodov iz najbolj prijateljske sosede Kanade (znižana 10 % stopnja velja za uvoz energentov) in manj prijateljske sosede Mehike. Glede Kanade so uradne navedbe, da sta povod za carine nekontroliran tranzit fentanila v ZDA in trgovinski primanjkljaj, pri Mehiki nekontroliran tranzit migrantov v ZDA in trgovinski primanjkljaj.
Ameriški politiki, vključno z Elonom Muskom, napovedujejo, da te carine in napovedane bodoče carine na uvoz iz Kitajske in držav EU ne bodo imele negativnega učinka na inflacijo.
No, učinki carin so dokaj kompleksni in z njimi se bomo po nekaj desetletjih zatišja zaradi skorajda popolne liberalizacije trgovine spet morali bolj aktivno ukvarjati. Zaenkrat zgolj dve hitri reakciji. Prvič, carine so v svojem bistvu uvozni davek, ki podraži uvožene izdelke, zaradi česar pa se (zaradi potuhe uvozne zaščite) dvignejo tudi cene domačih uvozno nadomestnih izdelkov. Najbolj “podmukle” so carine na inpute za domačo proizvodnjo (surovine, polizdelki, energenti), ker podražijo domačo proizvodnjo (z njimi se efektivna zaščita domače industrije zmanjša in ne poveča !). Zato so v pogajanjih o liberalizaciji trgovine v 1960-ih in 1970-ih države članice GATT izjemno pazile, da so najprej liberalizirale trgovino z inputi, šele nato trgovino s končnimi izdelki.
Torej, lahko uvedba carin povzroči inflacijo?
Odgovor je: odvisno. Uvedba carin nedvomno hipno poveča uvozne cene proizvodov, na katere so uvedene (razen v hipotetičnem primeru, če bi tuji ponudniki ekvivalentno znižali svoje prodajne cene). Skupni učinek pa je odvisen od tega, za katere dobrine gre (vmesni ali končni izdelek), kakšen je delež teh izdelkov v skupni porabi in kako se odzovejo domači proizvajalci. Če bi, hipotetično, ZDA uvedle 10 % carine na vse uvožene izdelke, bi prišlo do enkratnega dviga cen uvoznih izdelkov in posledično domačih uvozno nadomestnih izdelkov, skupni učinek pa bi bil odvisen od deleža teh izdelkov v skupni porabi oziroma v košarici življenjskih potrebščin.
Drugič, vendar enkratni dvig cen ni najslabša stvar, ki sledi uvedbi uvoznih carin. Carine imajo splošne negativne makroekonomske učinke, ker v osnovi pomenijo redistribucijo. V proizvodnji to pomeni, da carine dajo prednost manj učinkovitim domačim proizvajalcem, kar ima za posledico nižjo agregatno rast produktivnosti in BDP. V potrošnji pa carine prinašajo redistribucijo med dohodkovnimi razredi. Denimo pri carinah na živila so bolj prizadeti nižji dohodkovni razredi, pri carinah na luksuzne dobrine pa višji dohodkovni razredi. V splošnem pa carine prinašajo povečanje neenakosti v družbi, saj so običajno s carinami bolj prizadeti nižji dohodkovni razredi. Najhuje pa je, da carine običajno ne znižajo trgovinskega deficita, kot si to obeta Trump (tega tudi niso dosegle njegove carine iz prvega mandata).
To potrjuje empirična analiza, ki so jo leta 2018 naredili ekonomisti IMF plus Andrew Rose. Furceri et al (2018) so naredili analizo na vzorcu 151 držav v obdobju 1963–2014. Emprična analiza je pokazala, da povišanje carin srednjeročno vodi v ekonomsko in statistično pomemben upad domače proizvodnje in produktivnosti. Povišanje carin povzroči tudi večjo brezposelnost, večjo neenakost in apreciacijo realnega deviznega tečaja, vendar le majhne učinke na trgovinsko bilanco.
Torej obetanje, da bodo Trumpove carine “Ameriko spet naredile veliko”, je zelo optimističen wishful thinking. Carinam bi morala slediti zelo ekstenzivna industrijska politika na posameznih področjih, ki bi uspela ponovno vzpostaviti dobaviteljske verige, ki so se razbile po letu 2001, ko se je Kitajska na pobudo ZDA vključila v WTO in ko so ameriške korporacije prenesle svojo proizvodnjo v Kitajsko.
Glede učinka carin na inflacijo je spodaj kratek povzetek, če o tem vprašate ChatGPT-4o:
Import tariffs are taxes imposed by governments on goods and services imported from other countries. While they can protect domestic industries from foreign competition and generate government revenue, tariffs often lead to higher prices for imported goods, contributing to inflation. This summary examines the relationship between import tariffs and inflation, drawing on recent events and scholarly research.
Recent Developments and Inflationary Concerns
In January 2025, the U.S. administration announced significant tariffs: 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico, and 10% on Chinese goods. These measures are anticipated to raise prices across various consumer products, from agricultural items like cherry tomatoes and avocados to manufactured goods such as smartphones and toys. The Wall Street Journal highlighted that these tariffs are likely to increase prices across various consumer goods, contributing to inflation.
Economists have expressed concerns that such tariffs could exacerbate inflationary pressures. The Financial Times reported that President Trump’s protectionist strategies might increase the cost of living, with experts predicting a rise in inflation to 2.6% in 2025.
Similarly, The Guardian noted that these tariffs are expected to raise inflation, slow economic growth, and ultimately harm American consumers and workers.
Mechanisms Linking Tariffs to Inflation
Tariffs increase the cost of imported goods, which can lead to higher prices for consumers. When the cost of imports rises, domestic producers may also increase their prices, especially if they rely on imported components. This phenomenon was observed during the U.S.-China trade war, where tariffs led to higher prices for U.S. intermediate goods, with increases ranging from 10% to 30%.
A study published in the Quarterly Journal of Economics in October 2019 estimated that U.S. consumers and firms who buy imports lost $51 billion as a result of the 2018 tariffs. The study also found that “retaliatory tariffs resulted in a 9.9% decline in U.S. exports within products.”
Empirical Evidence from Scholarly Research
Research indicates that tariffs can have significant macroeconomic effects. A 2021 study found that across 151 countries over the period 1963–2014, “tariff increases are associated with persistent, economically and statistically significant declines in domestic output and productivity, as well as higher unemployment and inequality, real exchange rate appreciation, and insignificant changes to the trade balance.”
Another study examined the impact of U.S. trade policy on domestic corporate performance, finding that import tariffs can lead to higher input costs for firms, which may be passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices.
Conclusion
The imposition of import tariffs tends to lead to higher consumer prices, contributing to inflation. While tariffs can protect domestic industries and generate government revenue, they often result in increased costs for consumers and can have broader negative effects on the economy, including reduced output and productivity. Policymakers should carefully consider these potential consequences when designing trade policies.
DAMIJAN blog 