As the world awaits Iran’s retaliation for the Israeli air strike that killed three Iranian generals last week—retaliation that the New York Times says is “widely expected to be imminent”—there’s a chance that developments in Gaza could avert it. 

Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute points to signs that Tehran is looking for a way to reconcile two hard-to-reconcile goals: (1) avoid retaliation so strong that it could start a wider war; (2) not lose face. According to an anonymous Arab diplomat cited in Iranian media, Iran told the US that it will attack Israel directly unless President Biden secures a ceasefire in Gaza. The White House has denied the claim, but if it’s true, writes Parsi, it suggests that Iran “wants to avoid a direct confrontation with Israel, but it cannot avoid it unless it secures a big win in the region.”  

Parsi also speculates that, “Tehran may suspect that a ceasefire is already in the offing, allowing it to use that as a pretext to both take credit for ending the war and avoid getting into a shootout with Israel.” In any event, now that this report of an Iranian ultimatum is out there, a ceasefire would make it politically easier for Iran to forego retaliation or at least opt for minimal retaliation. “The long list of strategic reasons why Biden must secure a ceasefire has just grown longer,” concludes Parsi.

Also in Responsible Statecraft, Paul Pillar, former US national intelligence officer for the Near East and South Asia, suggests that if Iran indeed manages to avoid severe retaliation, Benjamin Netanyahu may be disappointed. Pillar writes that the Israeli assassination of Iranian generals looks like “an effort to escalate Israel’s way out” of its Gaza-related difficulties (difficulties such as: global opinion turning against Israel, American support wavering, and the aim of “eliminating Hamas” seeming out of reach—not to mention Netanyahu’s domestic unpopularity and his legal challenges). 

By provoking Iran to retaliate, Pillar says, Israel could 1) portray itself as acting in self-defense, diverting the world’s attention away from its increasingly problematic assault on Gaza, and 2) drag the US into conflict with Iran, further involving Israel’s superpower ally in a regional crisis that could otherwise become a threat to Israel’s security.

Vir: Robert Wright, Nonzero