Tudi če imate drugačne poglede, se splača prebrati.

Pope Francis and many others want negotiations to end the Russo-Ukrainian war. But there will be no negotiations now. Both Russia and Ukraine want to improve their positions before negotiations. Russia to get more concessions from Ukraine and Ukraine to avoid too many concessions. But how will the war finally end?

Scenariji konca vojne

I will paint with broad strokes a picture of a probable way to end the war. There will be no detailed discussions about offensives and other military matters. I said that there will be no negotiated peace for now, even though it would probably be the best alternative for Ukraine. The best alternative would of course have been a negotiated settlement during the spring of 2022, but that ship has already sailed.

What would an acceptable peace agreement be today. Russia would demand the same things as in 2022. That is a bilingual Ukraine with strong guarantees for the Russian population and the Russian Orthodox Church. A small Ukrainian military, eternal neutrality and close economic ties.

End to sanctions and a return of impounded Russian assets in the West. But the main difference would be that not only Crimea but also the entire Kherson, Zaporozhye, Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts would be accepted as part of Russia.

Ukraine might accept a ceasefire and freezing of the frontlines, nothing else. They don’t feel defeated and wouldn’t consider giving Russia anything Russia hasn’t taken by military force. But the Russian deal is probably the best thing Ukraine can hope to achieve. But that ship will also sail without Ukraine.

What has the future in store for the war? The war might be over in a couple of years or continue until 2030. It can also end in an resounding Russian victory or just a minor Russian  victory. We now have four different scenarios.

Scenario 1. Depends on increased and continuous western support. With that Ukraine can avoid a collapse of the frontline, but Russia will continue to advance, taking a new medium sized city every 6 months.

Around 2030 everyone will be tired of the war and when Russia has taken remaining Zaporozhye and Donetsk oblasts plus Kharkov oblast, the war will fade away and become a frozen conflict.

Russia will gain about a quarter of Ukrainian population and territory. Ukraine will of course loose that, but keep its freedom of action. Both sides might loose up to a million men each.

The new 3/4 Ukraine will have around 20 million inhabitants and bleak economic prospects since the West probably will have tired of supporting Ukraine. The population will probably continue a sharp decline, due to economic hardship and migration. 8-10 million refugees in the West will stay there.

New conflicts with Russia might occur later, but with a Russian 10:1 advantage in population and 20:1 in economy Ukraine will be much easier to handle during a new round. And the West might have lost interest in Ukraine. This is the best scenario for Ukraine.

Scenario 2. It is based on moderate and declining western support for Ukraine. Initially things might be like in scenario 1 but the speed of the Russian advance will increase year by year. Around 2030 Ukraine realised its defeat when Russian troops had reached the entire east bank of the Dniepr and taken Odessa in the South.

Scenario 3. It is a very similar scenario 2 but with a much faster pace. The same result might be achieved for the Russians, but in two years instead of around five, six years.

Scenario 4 is also a short term scenario. Ukraine defend itself valiantly during 2024, but during 2025 they realise that western, and especially US, support will stop and that the war therefore is lost. Ukraine asks for negotiations.

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Scenariji prihodnosti Ukrajine

A resounding Russian defeat of Ukrainian will have resounding consequences. It doesn’t matter if it takes two or five to six years. What will happen to Ukraine?

One thing is sure, the entire Ukraine will not disappear and become a part of Russia.

If that was the only option Ukraine would continue fighting, maybe even for a decade in the western part of Ukraine. That’s not in Russia’s interest.

We can divide Ukraine into four zones. Zone A, Western Ukraine with Lvov and a majority of Ukrainian speakers. Zone B, Central Ukraine with Kiev and a majority of Surzhyk (mix of Ukrainian and Russian) speakers.

Zone C, Northeastern Ukraine with Kharkov and a majority of Russian speakers. Zone D, Southeastern and Southern Ukraine with Donetsk and Odessa, a majority of Russian speakers.

What will happen to these zones after a resounding Russian victory? Zone D Novorossiya will probably be incorporated into Russia. Five oblasts have already been incorporated, Crimea, Kherson, Zaporozhye, Donetsk and Lugansk.

The remaining two along the Black Sea coast; Mykolaiv and Odessa will also be incorporated into Russia. The remaining three zones (ABC) might continue as a united Ukraine with close cooperation with Russia.

But there are several alternatives. AB might become a smaller neutral state while Russia Annex everything east of the Dniepr along with Dnipropetrovsk oblast (C).

Other alternatives are to divide A and B into two states, one anti-Russian and one under Russian control. Without the western part of Ukraine Russia might also decide to combine B and C into a prorussian state with a Russian speaking majority.

Whether the prorussian Ukraine consists of only B or both BC, it will probably be part of a union state or confederation consisting of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine.

After a Russian victory, Russia will control, directly or indirectly, 75% of Ukrainian territory and 50% of its population (~20 million).

West Ukraine will have around 25% of the territory and around 20-25% of the population. The remaining 25-30% of the Ukrainian population will be living in exile.

Relations with the West is very unsure. They could be everything from good to terrible. A partition of Ukraine might strengthen western animosity. But a Le Pen presidency in France might split the EU and a Trump presidency could split NATO.

If the western countries uphold sanctions and an impoundment of Russian financial assets. Russ and could answer by confiscating western assets in Russia and Ukraine. Together those are worth around 400 Bn dollars.

The western powers would also lose loans to Ukraine worth several hundreds of billions of dollars. Western support to Ukraine could easily have cost the West at least 1000 bn dollars, but maybe two or three times that amount.

Russia will have grown as a result of the war. A new union state or confederation would have more than 185 million inhabitants.

As you see my and Dmitry Medvedev’s thoughts about the end of the war differ. I don’t understand why Poland should get a large part of Ukraine. They are two different people and a new united and anti Russian State would be a greater threat to Russia than Ukraine was.

Why should Romania get Vinnytsia, even if a few Romanians live there. Small areas along the border with Romania and Hungary could be given to these states.

A partition of Moldova could also be done to mollify Romania. Transnistria and Gaugazhia would become Russian and the rest of Moldova would become Romanian.

If this is the long term consequences of the war, Ukraine should start negotiations yesterday, or at least ASAP, to avoid this bleak future. But the war will probably continue to somewhere between 2026-2030.

Vir: Mikael Valtersson

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* Mikael Valtersson is former officer Swedish Armed Forces/Air Defence, former defence politician and chief of staff Sweden Democrats. Current political and military analyst.