Zelo malo demokratsko čutečih ljudi v ZDA in Evropi si želi povratek Trumpa na čelo ZDA. Toda to se bo očitno zgodilo glede na to, s kakšno lahkoto je včeraj v Iowi pometel z republikansko konkurenco. In čeprav si demokratsko čuteči ljudje ne želijo povratka Trumpa, so najbrž v manjšini. Tako v ZDA kot v Evropi – po katastrofalni zunanji politiki Bidena, ki je ZDA zapletel v množico proxy vojn in erozijo privida njene dominacije, Evropo pa v novo hladno vojno, recesijo in dolgotrajno stagnacijo. Še bolj pa v svetu, kjer je Biden povzročil globalni kaos in kjer si večina držav Globalnega Juga želi manj agresivne in bolj predvidljive osebe na čelu ZDA. S Trumpom namesto navideznega liberalnega zaveznika dobijo jasno opredeljenega nasprotnika, ki je po karakterju trgovec, ki pa ne žuga s palcem glede človekovih pravic in globalnega segrevanja. Paradoksalno, za Trumpa 2.0 se zdi, da prinaša normalizacijo odnosov v globalni kaos, ki ga je zakuhal Biden.

Res si pred tremi leti nisem predstavljal, da bi lahko kaj takega pomislil, kaj šele zapisal. In v Bloombergu očitno tudi ne.

It took 30 minutes to call victory for Donald Trump in Iowa, leaving his Republican rivals out in the Arctic cold gripping the midwest. He’s already on the lips of the Davos jet set, and Christine Lagarde was that rare central banker wading into politics to declare Trump 2.0 would be a global threat.

But if you’re in government and facing the real prospect of having to deal with a second Trump presidency, you just have to be practical.

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas made sure to reach out to Trump’s entourage in Washington. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock did a major detour to visit the heart of Trump land to try and understand the US mood before November’s elections.

Officials from Europe to Asia, Africa and Latin America are clear-headed about the risks with a repeat of Trump: expect more of the same with even fewer safety guards. Maybe he’ll pull the US out of NATO or hang Ukraine out to dry given his oft-expressed admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

There will be more trade tensions with China, but perhaps surprisingly, few in Beijing expect the relationship with the US to change given the protectionist slant of Joe Biden’s administration.

India and Saudi Arabia welcome the transactional mindset that Trump brings to the table. They’re also allergic to the finger-wagging they get on things like climate change and human rights from the US and the West. There’ll be none of that with Trump.

The biggest political takeaway? Expect nothing back. Even if he likes to play golf with you, he may turn on you on a dime.

It’s all about hedging your bets, something the titans of finance gathered at the Swiss ski resort know all too well.

Vir: Bloomberg