Če je bil namen ameriških in britanskih napadov na tarče v Jemnu, da uničijo izstrelišča in skladišča z raketami ter razorožijo Hutije ali jih “kredibilno prestrašijo” pred nadaljevanjem omejevanja plovbe po Rdečem morju, so napadi dejansko dosegli nasprotne učinke. Hutije so še bolj razvneli, na drugi strani pa so se ladjarji še bolj ustrašili prevoza skozi Rdeče morje proti Suezu. Če je pred ameriško-britanskimi napadi plovbo skozi Rdeče morje odpovedala samo večina kontejnerskih prevoznikov, se je po napadih za enako potezo odločila tudi večina prevoznikov nafte. Slednje pa seveda pomeni pritisk na porast cen nafte in tako – skupaj s ponudbenim šokom pri ostalih dobrinah – dodatno ojačuje učinek na porast inflacije.

V tej situaciji se ZDA lahko odločijo še za ojačitev napadov na cilje v Jemnu, kar bi eskaliralo v vojno na Bližnjem vzhodu, v katero utegne biti vključen tudi Iran (kot podpornik Hutijev). No, po ponedeljkovem napadu na ameriško kontejnersko ladjo, so se ZDA (začasno) odločile, da ne eskalirajo napetosti in svojim ladjarjem sporočile, da naj raje ne plujejo skozi Rdeče morje. Kot je razbrati iz sporočil ameriških agencij, je bil izkupiček ameriških 3-dnevnih letalskih obstreljevanj ciljev v Jemnu dokaj pičel. Hutiji so se namreč v 8 letih vojne oziroma 8 let trajajočih napadov savdskega letalstva dobro naučili skrivati svoje mobilne raketne lansirne sisteme.

ZDA bi naredile veliko več za končanje hutijskih napadov in za umiritev pritiskov na dobaviteljske verige in s tem na inflacijo, če bi prepričale Izrael, da preneha bombardirati Gazo (kar je temeljna zahteva Hutijev). Slednje je za ZDA dokaj enostavno, pač prenehajo dobavljati rakete in izstrelke.

While this week started with expectations that inflationary pressures around the world were abating, an escalation in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East quickly changed those calculations. The US and UK launched airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen to stop its attacks on ships in the the Red Sea, actions the group says are in retaliation for Israel’s bombing campaign in Gaza. Many companies have rerouted their ships away from the waterway—which links to the Mediterranean Sea via the Suez Canal—forcing vessels on much longer routes around southern Africa. The disruptions in the Red Sea have roiled global supply chains and pushed up freight costs. The Houthis have pledged a “big” response to airstrikes, and oil prices—a key driver of inflation—have ticked up.

The military action also underscores the deepening fallout from the Israel-Hamas war: US President Joe Biden has been working since the Oct. 7 attacks in Israel to prevent a wider conflict — but the airstrikes did, in fact, expand it. “If anything has changed, it’s that the Red Sea may be on its way to becoming a war zone,” Marc Champion writes in Bloomberg Opinion, arguing that the strikes play into the hands of the Houthis and their backer, Iran. Biden didn’t rule out more strikes.

Turkey and Saudi Arabia expressed concern, while Russia and Iran strongly condemned the attacks. The confrontation pits the US against another Iranian proxy, with US forces in recent weeks launching attacks in Syria and Iraq against Iranian-supported militias that have targeted American bases. It’s a strategy Iran has been scripting for years as it assembled what’s been called its “axis of resistance” to Israel and the US. Despite the escalating aggression, the strikes on Yemen will probably have a limited impact on the global economy, according to Bloomberg Economics. But the added costs of recalibrating shipping routes and upward pressure on energy prices are, at a minimum, a thorn in the side of central banks trying to bring inflation to a 2% target. 

Vir: Bloomberg