Dober zapis novega slovaškega predsednika vlade. Poveden je njegov realizem: čeprav strategija Zahoda v Ukrajini ne deluje, na Zahodu tega nihče ne bo priznal in ne bo spremembe zahodne politike in pripravljenosti na pogajanja z Rusijo, kar pomeni, da nas lahko čaka še 10 ali 15 let vojne v Ukrajini. Dokler pač (moj dodatek) Ukrajini ne bo zmanjkalo moških za vojno in dokler zahodnim davkoplačevalcem ne bo zmanjkalo volje financirati to vojno in ukrajinske imigrante v Evropi.

From the very beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, I rejected a black-and-white vision, as desired in Washington or Brussels. The war in Ukraine has its roots in 2014 and in the development of the Ukrainian political scene and its relationship with fellow citizens of Russian nationality. And, of course, in the total influence of the US on everything that happened in 2014, and has been happening since. Let’s imagine, for example, that the entire Department of Defense of Mexico, as a neighbouring country of the US, as well as it political leaders, including its president, were under the complete control of Russia.

Russia responded to the security situation and Ukraine’s pressure to join NATO by violating international law, using military force without an international mandate. Big countries often do that, see the US invasion of Iraq. And the West, instead of immediately making every effort to achieve a quick ceasefire, at the beginning of 2022, when Ukraine had lost less than a tenth of its territory, made a huge mistake. It incorrectly evaluated the use of Russian military force as an opportunity to bring Russia to its knees. One look at history. Russia was invaded by Hitler in June 1941, but the Western Allies did not open a second front until the summer of 1944, when the outcome of the war was clearly in favor of the former USSR.

It is proven that at the very beginning of the war in Ukraine, in 2022, the West did not allow the Ukrainians to conclude a ceasefire on fair terms on at least two very promising occasions. Because a painfully wrong decision has already been made. The West would take advantage of Russia’s violation of international law, supply Ukraine with piles of weapons and billions of dollars, slap Russia with massive sanctions, attack Russia’s main mineral income and expect the Ukrainians, down to the very last one, to bring them the head of the Russian bear on a platter in the form of a militarily exhausted, economically ruined, internationally isolated and internally politically subverted Russia. This was and unfortunately still is the Western strategy, which has clearly failed.

It is shocking to see how the West has repeatedly botched its assessment of the situation in Russia. The facts are undeniable. Russia completely controls the occupied territories militarily, and attempts to convince the international community with demagoguery about the demoralisation of the Russian soldiers and the huge human losses are increasingly showing themselves as empty demagogic wishful thinking. Ukraine is not capable of any meaningful military counteroffensive, it has become completely dependent on financial aid from the West with unforeseeable consequences for Ukrainians in the years to come.

It is only a matter of time when official information about land ownership in Ukraine, about the largest foreign owners, will begin to be published. The position of the Ukrainian president is shaken, while the Russian president increases and strengthens his political support. Neither the Russian economy nor the Russian currency collapsed, anti-Russian sanctions increase the internal self-sufficiency of this huge country, Russian energy giants report record deliveries to China and India. On the other hand, people close to the Ukrainian president tell the foreign media that theft is rampant in Ukraine.

Of course, I do not dare to claim that Russia is not feeling the negative consequences of its February 2022 decision to use military force in Ukraine. But it is nowhere close to being ruined by the effects of the invasion, as the Western planners had predicted.

So what are the possibilities for further development? With a high probability, weapons and money will continue to pour into Ukraine for some time, but to no avail. It is politically impossible for Ukraine’s Western supporters to openly admit the incorrectness of the adopted strategy. In two or three years we will be where we are now. The EU will be perhaps 50 billion euros lighter, while Ukrainian cemeteries will be filled with thousands more dead soldiers. Unfortunately, common sense will not prevail. It is evident that the futile waste of human resources and money and the passage of time will not worsen Russia’s negotiating position; on the contrary, it will strengthen it, because in a few years the international community will also begin to organise a retreat when looking at the reality.

I often ask myself what is defeatist about realistic and fact-based considerations about the necessity of a ceasefire in Ukraine, when it is absolutely clear to everyone that the crisis in Ukraine has no military solution. If I wish for something, it is for the Slavs to stop fighting each other for geopolitical reasons, both on the American and Russian sides. Let Ukraine follow its sovereign, not dictated, path. If it sees itself in the EU, let it go that way, provided it meets the conditions. We will be happy to help. Russia also needs its security guarantees. And I continue to believe that we should return to the not-so-old idea of the EU and Russia being somewhat joined at the hip and needing one another.

As Prime Minister of the Slovak Republic, I will not spread hostility towards any country in the world; I also wish for the gradual standardisation of relations between EU member countries and Russia. And I will no longer be subject to stupid liberal and progressive demagoguery that offends basic human justice and will ultimately cause enormous harm.

Vir: Rober Fico