… vendar ni bistvene škode za proizvodnjo energije (sicer pač), ker solarni paneli proizvajajo energijo samo eno osmino časa v letu (le okrog 12% učinkovitost), ker jo proizvajajo v napačnem času (poleti in sredi dneva) in ker je ne proizvajajo za tiste, ki bi jo potrebovali (energetsko intenzivna industrija). Če torej 15% solarnih kapacitet ugasne zaradi propadanja, se to ne pozna bistveno na energetskih bilancah.

Problem sončnih elektrarn kot nadomestka za druge vire električne energije – ob njihovi neučinkovitosti – je v dvojem. Prvič, v ustvarjanju iluzije, da spremenljive sončne elektrarne, ki delujejo zgolj eno osmino (1/8) časa v letu, lahko nadomestijo stalne in stanovitne vire energije, kot je jedrska, ki delujejo med 95 in 100% časa v letu. Drugič, v realokaciji ogromnih vsot investicij (v Nemčiji nekaj sto milijrad evrov) v povsem napačen energetski vir. Za 500 milijard evrov bi lahko Nemčija izgradila okrog 100 jedrskih elektrarn srednje velikosti in proizvedla dovolj in stalne električne energije, ko jo najbolj potrebuje, hkrati pa bi drastično znižala izpuste CO2 (česar s sončnimi elektrarnami ni, saj je treba v preostalih sedmih osminah časa v letu, ko sončne elektrarne ne delajo, kuriti plin in premog za proizvodnjo potrebne električne energije).

The solar industry in Germany now reports that a jaw-dropping 15% of German solar capacity is rapidly disintegrating.

On one hand, this represents the decay & destruction of many billions of € of capital.

On the other hand it represents hardly any energy risk, because 10 gigawatts of solar capacity produces very little power, much less during peak demand period, in a dark cold country like Germany.

Fortunately for the grid, the power isn’t needed because Germany is just losing its industries instead of growing the clean energy supply. Further, this rotting solar, even when new, didn’t produce the sort of electricity supply that supports factories staying in the country.

Germany’s nuclear plants were getting more effective with age, with extraordinary uptime and reliability at low cost. Its solar equipment, on the other hand, gets worse with age. From here on, Germany is going to have to sprint just to keep its capacity numbers up, to say nothing of actual solar energy production.

Countries have demonstrably powered themselves at or above 50% nuclear in their power mix for decades, whereas solar and wind dependency is merely in the experimental stage and may actually not work. Only Denmark has broken 50% and its reward is excruciatingly high electricity prices and several times the carbon intensity of France.

We’ll see! The stakes are perilously high for countries attempting this grand experimental transition. I’m watching Australia closely, as it has much better fundamentals than Germany for renewables.

Vir: Mark Nelson