Tole je strašljivo. Julijska anomalija v temperaturi površine oceanov je znašala 0.5 stopinje Celzija, avgustovska (do sedaj) pa že več kot 0.8 stopinje Celzija. Če ti izračuni Leona Simonsa držijo, nas čakajo vremensko zelo turbulentni meseci. Zraven je treba prišteti še večje sevanje sonca in manjše sevanje zemlje zaradi toplogrednih plinov. Tole je strašljivo.

Two months ago, I thought I’d do something ridiculous and plot the Super El Niño trend of 2015 forward for Sea Surface Temperatures, see dashed lines in red (2023) and green (2024). I turns out that we are largely running above that..

The effect of El Niño on the tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures is clearly visible. Also see the North Pacific and Atlantic:

The anomaly is running off the chart again.

All this extreme ocean surface heat is about to turn into a year of shocking extreme atmospheric temperatures and (even) more extreme weather.

We might be getting a first taste of the Termination Shock from terminating part of our cooling sulphur pollution, while still increasing greenhouse gases.

Vir: Leon Simons

K temu dodajmo še učinek sonca:

The sun is brighter than for over 23 years. This contributes to all the temperature high and sea ice low records being broken.

Bring in the human caused climate change deniers, it’s the sun!

Piers Forster and Chris Smith

But don’t get too exited. The current average (global, 365 days, 24 hour) 12-month solar irradiance at the top of the atmosphere is only +0.4 W/m² (Watts per square meter for the average 510,000,000,000,000 m² of Earth’s surface) higher than the lowest value in 2008. The amount of solar radiation that Earth absorbs has increased much more. This is caused by a decrease in the reflectivity (albedo) of our planet. Because of less (sea) ice and snow and decreasing aerosol and clouds, Earth now absorbs about +2 W/m² more sunlight.

Piers Forster and Chris Smith

And now the same deniers will double down and say it is the sun and not greenhouse gases. That’s not a strange first thought. Earth’s Emitted Thermal Radiation has increased, while we are being told that greenhouse gases should decrease outgoing heat radiation.

Piers Forster and Chris Smith

Physics tells us that Earth radiates more thermal radiation as she gets warmer. That happens at temperature in Kelvin to the fourth power (Planck radiation feedback: σT^4). Earth warmed by about 0.5°C in the past 23 years. With that the outgoing heat radiation should have increased by about 3 W/m². But it increased by only ~1 Wm². The increased greenhouse gases (mainly CO2, methane, N2O and Water Vapor) absorb ~2 W/m² of the increase in heat radiation. These are the forcings (and WV feedback) that cause the planet to heat up. Without the greenhouse gases humans have put in the atmosphere in the past 270 years, the outgoing heat radiation would be about 4 W/m² higher and Earth would be rapidly cooling down:

Piers Forster and Chris Smith

So yes, the sun is currently making warming worse than it would be if the 11-year solar cycle was at its low point. Let’s use this fact to understand the rapid changes that are happening, not to deny that we have a lot of challenges ahead.

Vir: Leon Simons