Eric Schmidt, nekdanji CEO Googla, zdaj pa top svetovalec Pentagona, je po vrnitvi iz Ukrajine v intervjuju za CNN vse prej kot optimističen, da bi Ukrajini lahko uspel preboj na fronti in da bi lahko zmagala v tej vojni:

(1) The Russians have a major artillery advantage and they’re not going to run out. He says the Russians are using 60,000 shells/day compared to 5,000 shells/day for the entire Western production. This is even higher than the 10:1 ratios for balance of artillery that I’ve seen in other contexts.

(2) Punching through Russian lines in order to march to the Sea of Azov and sever the land bridge to Crimea (the strategy of the Ukrainian counteroffensive) is “an insurmountable task.” There are too many obstacles, and even if a column could get through, it would immediately be bombarded with artillery from all sides.

(3) The war will go on for years because neither side has sufficient advantage. The only potential game-changer that he sees is if Ukraine can mass produce drones. But he says the factories have to be built in Ukraine “for various reasons.” I don’t know what those reasons are, but this seems unrealistic to me since the Russians can disrupt production by bombing the factories.

Also, I don’t see why, given the artillery advantage, Russia lacks sufficient advantage to go on offense once the Ukrainian counteroffensive culminates; in fact, this is already happening in the north.

Vir:  twitter