Ta nemška strategija je bolj v smislu “damage control”. Potrebno je bistveno več. Potrebna je sprememba evropskih politik. Skupna EU industrijska politika kot antipod ameriški in kitajski ni dober odgovor, ker bodo v njej favozrizirane samo velike države. Potrebno je evropske politike glede spodbujanja razvoja in državnih pomoči narediti bolj ohlapne. Naj vsaka država zase določi svoje prioritetne smeri razvoja, svoje strateške sektorje in svoj nabor podpornih ukrepov. Naj se določi zgolj “cap” (zgornja meja) izdatkov v ta namen – denimo 3-5% BDP letno in naj se ta izdatek ne upošteva v fiskalnem okvirju za posamezne države.

Je to erozija skupnega evriposkega trga? Ja, vendar omogoča gospodarski razvoj in preživetje Evrope. Sicer nas bosta tako ZDA kot Kitajska prehiteli tako po levi kot po desni strani. Kaj nam pomagajo pravila enotnega / skupnega evropskega trga, če pa bomo zaradi teh pravil končali v revščini?

Most of the attention has been on Anthony Blinken’s visit to China, but the visit by Li Qiang, the Chinese prime minister, to Berlin is perhaps the more noteworthy visit, at least from our perspective. Germany and China are reinforcing their strategic partnership. It was a notably friendly bilateral. Olaf Scholz said yesterday that minimising supply chain risks does not mean an end to globalisation. The two agreed on that principle. The balancing act is inherent in the formulation. Germany’s secret service, by contrast, sees China as the main security threat. Security plays a moderately larger role today than it used to. But it is still not the dominant factor. China is, and will remain, Germany’s most important trading partner.

Germany’s lack of alternative strategies became very clear yesterday on the second day of the meeting of the German federation of industry. One industrialist after another complained about their company and industry falling into a deep hole. Everybody is asking for an inflation reduction act-style subsidy, and beyond. Some are calling for the return to national preferences in public sector bidding, which is, of course, what China and the US do. The problem with Germany is not that it exports a lot. It is the reliance on trade surpluses for wealth creation.

Germany’s fanboys of the last decade are now calling on Germany to change. But the pushback is coming too late. There is scope for a bit more industrial policy, but nothing on the scale that industry demands, not even on the scale of the inflation reduction act. The second-best strategy, the one now pursued in Berlin, is to play this double game with China and the US. Reinforce your strategic relationship with China, while pretending that you are also in a strategic relationship with Washington. What can possibly go wrong? A FAZ commentator warns that Scholz should not fall into the same trap as Emmanuel Macron did on his visit to China. We think he already did.

Vir: Eurointelligence