Geopolitični tektonski premiki se dogajajo s pospešeno hitrostjo. Kitajska je očitno obupala nad tem, da bo lahko otoplila odnose z Washingtonom, saj slednji ne zamudi dneva, da ne bi proti Kitajski sprožil omejitvenih ukrepov ali poslal sovražnih bodic. Kitajska je zato začela z odločno samostojno akcijo kot države, ki se – za razliko od ZDA – zavzema za mir v svetu. In če smo pošteni, to drži. Mirovni sporazum med večnima sovražnikoma Iranom in Saudsko Arabijo, predlog načel mirovnega sporazuma med Ukrajino in Rusijo, oblikovanje grupacije za poglobljeno sodelovanje BRICS+ ter nedavni 3-dnevni obisk kitajskega predsednika Xi Jinpinga v Moskvi ZDA pošiljajo v ozadje. Ustvarjen je vtis, da se Kitajska zavzema za mir in bolj enakopravno sodelovanje med državami, medtem ko ZDA vse bolj izgledajo kot država, ki ni zainteresirana za mir. In kar je huje, ZDA s tem dejansko izgubljajo zaveznike, saj države v razvoju ne samo, da ne želijo pristati na ameriški ultimat “ZDA ali Kitajska”, pač pa se aktivno in demonstrativno odločajo za več sodelovanja s Kitajsko. Zadnji tak primer je Honduras, ki se je odločil za vzpostavitev diplomatskih odnosov s Kitajsko in preknitev s Tajvanom.

Kitajska ne postavlja ultimata “Kitajska ali ZDA”, pač pa ponuja več sodelovanja, ponuja več trgovine, ponuja gradnjo infrastrukturnih projektov in financiranje teh. In seveda se ta zadnja opcija zdi precej bolj privlačna kot ameriške zahteve po obnašanju v skladu z ameriškim kodeksom.

In če potegnemo črto: ZDA so s svojo politiko konfrontacije s Kitajsko slednjo potisnile oziroma prisilile v to vlogo. Gre za gromozansko napako ameriške zunanje politike, ki je z nespametnimi potezami sama uničila oziroma uničuje svoj status svetovnega hegemona. V tenisu temu rečejo “unforced error”. S tem, da gre pri ZDA za fatalno neizsiljeno napako.

Xi Jinping’s meetings in Moscow with Vladimir Putin put the Biden administration in an uncomfortable position: on the sidelines as two adversaries discuss a Ukraine peace proposal that the US has deemed unacceptable.

US officials have publicly expressed deep skepticism about the Chinese idea, saying its call for a cease-fire would reward Moscow’s invasion by cementing its territorial gains. Privately, though, the meetings and the proposal have provoked a sense of unease within the administration, leading in turn to questions about the broader US approach to the two countries.

According to one administration official, who asked not to be identified discussing internal deliberations, the US is worried about being backed into a corner over the Chinese proposal. Regardless of the US reservations, dismissing it outright could let China argue to other nations that are weary of the war — and of the economic damage it’s wreaking — that Washington isn’t interested in peace. 

If the US spurns the agreement, “China will likely ramp up messaging that the US is opposed to a cease-fire, that the US is opposed to the end of the war,” said Bonny Lin, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies who once served at the Pentagon. “There will be lots of ways in which China will try to spin whatever comes from the China-Russia meeting in a way that seeks to portray the US in negative light.”

The debate over China’s version of a peace plan highlights just one of the many uncomfortable realities that were brought home by Xi’s three-day visit this week to Moscow, which saw the Chinese leader greeted warmly by Putin. The two countries pledged to deepen their partnership even further. 

The Biden administration has tried to keep China on the sidelines since the start of the Ukraine invasion, but the opposite appears to have happened. Even as Xi and Putin grow closer, China is finding a receptive audience for its broader diplomatic push around the globe. 

…

China has shrugged off US sanctions over its companies’ partnership with Russia, bought oil from Iran’s regime in defiance of western demands and helped orchestrate a diplomatic detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Major global economies such as India and Brazil are refusing to choose between China and the West, arguing they don’t want a new Cold War. 

And a week ago, Honduras began the process of giving up its diplomatic ties with Taiwan in favor of economic links with China. 

…

The Biden administration has tried to make China confront the Ukraine crisis on the US’s terms, but “Xi is now getting in on his terms,” said Christopher K. Johnson, president of China Strategies Group, a political risk consultancy. “And that, I think, is probably causing some consternation within the administration.”

With Washington constantly taking a hawkish hard line on China, some analysts believe that China may have effectively given up on a better relationship with the US anytime soon.

The less China sees an opportunity to work with the US, “the more likely they are to pursue those other avenues and options,” said Melanie Sisson, a foreign policy fellow at the Brookings Institution. “And in many ways and places, that will mean trying to fray US relationships with other countries.”

Vir: Bloomberg