Kako je Kitajska tehnološko prehitela Zahod

Dobra nit Science Is Strategic (@scienceisstrat1) o tehnološkem vzponu Kitajske. Kitajska je na mnogih področjih prehitela ZDA (po številu top 1% člankov, po rankingu univerz glede števila in kvalitete člankov, po objavah glede umetne inteligence, po številu patentov, po dobavnih verigah glede proizvodov na področju obnovljivih virov energije, po proizvodnji baterij, po proizvodnji solarnih panelov itd.), drugje je le vprašanje časa, kdaj (po aplikacijah umetne inteligence). Pri čipih bo kmalu dohitela Tajvan, čeprav zaenkrat še zaostaja. Evropske unije v teh primerjavah ni nikjer niti približno blizu.

China is now a major science & tech superpower, with huge consequences for political, economic & military power.

Below is a 🧵on this dynamic from supercomputing to AI to quantum to green energy.

cc: @erikbryn @paulg @Noahpinion @amcafee @ramez @scmallaby @wolfejosh

China’s total spending levels on R&D have surpassed Europe, are dramatically higher than Japan and rival the spending levels in the US. 2/25 Image

China is now essentially in a head-to-head race with the US in terms of R&D spending, a dramatic change in just two decades. 3/25 Image

Most observers dramatically UNDERESTIMATE how good the best Chinese universities have become, especially in STEM education. 4/25 Image

This has been achieved through a focused multi-decade government commitment, including through a systematic rise in government spending, both nominally and as a percentage of GDP. 5/25 Image

Rising spending has contributed to China’s rise as a scientific superpower. China is now second to the United States in the Nature Index ranking, a widely-cited measure of high quality scientific publications by country. 6/25 Image
And Chinese institutions like Peking and Tsinghua now rank alongside the top Western institutions like Harvard, Stanford and MIT in the Nature Index (both Chinese institutions are now ahead of Oxford and Cambridge, for example). 7/25

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Rising scientific and engineering prowess has led to rising innovation capability. Beijing is now arguably the world’s second leading startup capital, and China has the second highest number of unicorns including the world’s most valuable private company (ByteDance). 8/25 ImageImage

“China already has more supercomputers on the Top 500 list of the world’s most powerful computers than any other country — 186 compared with 123 in the US.” 9/25

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The US still has a dominant lead in terms of private investment in AI, but China is in the game and far surpasses the EU or any other player. 11/25 Image
China is also highly active and has advanced research efforts underway in the emerging fields of quantum computing and communications, domains with enormous implications for national security (think code breaking and advanced sensors). 12/25 Image
China’s pharma and biotech sectors have gone from near non-existent 15 years ago to exploding with growth and optimism. 13/25

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Even in the critical new domain of CRISPR and gene editing technologies more generally, which were discovered in labs in Berkeley and Paris, China is now a major scientific player. 15/25

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In green technologies, China is fairly dominant across multiple domains. 16/25

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China’s dominance in the downstream EV battery supply chain is notable. 17/25 Image
China’s dominance of solar PV manufacturing is near absolute. 18/25 Image
In semiconductors, the situation is more complicated. China is rapidly growing as a manufacturer and assembler of semiconductors with forecasts suggesting it may be the largest total producer by the end of the decade. 19/25

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But Chinese semiconductor leaders like SMIC are still largely shut out of the most advanced fabrication nodes, which are dominated by Taiwanese (TSMC) & South Korean (Samsung) companies (reports that SMIC is producing 7nm chips should be treated with skepticism). 20/25 Image
At the same time, China is a bit player in key semiconductor supply chain domains like equipment (ASML), design (Nvidia, AMD) and software (Cadence, Synopsys). The USG is working hard to prevent China access to these advanced technologies. 21/25

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In conclusion, China has achieved a level of science & tech sophistication that is significant & consequential, w/implications across multiple domains. To follow it further follow: @ericschmidt @EBKania @GrahamTAllison @cdbrose @TonyT2Thomas @elyratner @kaifulee @shashj

One response

  1. Pozabljamo, da 1 USD vložen v znanost v ZDA in na Kitajskem ne daje istega rezultata. Nekaj v stilu Purchasing Power Index-a. Če bi upoštevali to kvalitativno razliko in število in kvaliteto ljudi, ki se ukvarjajo z znanostjo, bi bila slika bistveno drugačna – v korist Kitajske.

    Drugo je masa univerzitetno izobraženih ljudi, doktorantov etc. …Iz kvantitete prihaja kvaliteta. Kot sem že večkrat omenil na tem blogu, Kitajska sproducira cca slabih 5 milijonov STEM diplomantov letno, ZDA pa 10 krat manj (in manj kot Rusija ki ima več kot pol manj prebivalstva) . Splošni nivo znanja naravoslovja v kitajskih šolah od osnovnih do fakultete je po objavljenih mednarodnih primerjavah neprimerno višji na Kitajskem.

    Splošni IQ prebivalstva je z 104 bistveno večji na Kitajskem kot v ZDA (in v Evropi). Danes imajo praktično vsi Kitajci dostop do digitalne tehnologije, mobilne tehnologije, interneta oz. informacij v svetu. Jezik in pisava, ki sta bila nekoč veliki barieri, s pomočjo strojnega prevajanja in umetne inteligence danes to več nista. Svak, ki občasna predava na kitajskih fakultetah, poroča, da take želje po znanju kot jo opaža na Kitajskem ni nikjer drugje na svetu.

    Velika prednost Kitajske so državne univerze in državni kurikulum, ki ne popušča “komercialnim” zahtevam po prodaji akademskih naslovov. Po drugi strani je kitajska družba izjemno kompetitivna in izrazito hitra v komercializaciji. Kitajska država je pripravljena veliko tvegati z razvojem in eksperimentirati (predvsem na lokalni in pokrajinski ravni).

    Na drugi strani (v ZDA bolj kot v Evropi) se igramo z Woke norostjo, matematiko kot “white privilage”, nižanjem standardov, …da naši ubogi razvajenčki ne bi bili pod depresijo, ker bi morali trdo delati med študijem. Da med “delom”- zaposlitvijo niti ne govorim.

    Največja grožnja Zahodu niso ruske ali kitajske hipersonične rakete, temveč zaostajanje izobraževalnega sistema in “mehčanje” naše kulture.

    In tu, se bojim, je že Game Over.

    Edini način zaustavljanje Kitajske,se zdi(kot ga razume Zahod), je gospodarska in tehnološka blokada (se že dogaja, ampak prepozno), zrušitev oblasti Komunistične partije (se dogaja, ampak propadli so dosedaj vsi poskusi, podpora oblasti na Kitajski je večja kot katerikoli vladi na Zahod-u), bioterorizem (težko ker so Kitajci bistveno bolje pripravljeni in organizirani kot mi, hkrati obstaja možnost boomerang-a), vojna (že poteka s poskusom rušenja kitajskega zaveznika in prve nuklearne velesile Rusije).

    Je pa še drug način (…bi rekli Pankrti). Miroljubna koeksistenca.

    Ampak to pomeni na dolgi rok zrušenje položaja USD in s tem politične in ekonomske moči zahodne elite. Bojim se, zelo bojim, da bodo prej pripravljeni zažgati cel svet kot dopustiti izgubo svojega priviligiranega položaja. Vojna v Ukrajini to kaže več kot nazorno.

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