Tudi iz Nemčije pride kdaj kaj dobrega (razen vrhunskega inženirskega znanja in najboljših avtomobilov, seveda). Tokrat je to predlog reforme fiskalnih pravil, ki so ga naredili na Inštitutu za makroekonomske politike (IMK, Düsseldorf). Predlog izhaja iz spoznanja, da mora nov fiskalni okvir po eni strani omogočiti makroekonomsko stabilizacijo v času recesije, na dolgi  rok pa tudi kapitalsko modernizacijo gospodarstva prek fiskalnega prostora za investicije v infrastrukturo.

Predlog je zelo razumen in predvideva troje:

1. izhodišni (benchmark) javni dolg se zaradi pandemije dvigne iz 60% na 90% BDP,
2. izdatkovno fiskalno pravilo se nanaša samo na neciklične in neinvesticijske izdatke,
3. za investicijske izdatke velja Zlato investicijsko pravilo.

Pri nas se razprava glede potrebnosti spremembe fiskalnega pravila sicer še ni niti začela, toda ker imamo eno najbolj restriktivnih fiskalnih pravil, bo potrebno to razpravo (in spremembo zakona) opraviti kmalu. Problem bo, da ko bo naslednje leto Evropska komisija v nekem trenutku preklicala sedanje “fiskalne izredne razmere” zaradi epidemije, nam bo naše neživljenjsko fiskalno pravilo – v situaciji, ko bo javni dolg večji od 100% BDP, deficit pa nad 3% BDP – zategnilo vrat. In takrat se bo zaradi tega recesija šele prav razživela.

Debt-to-GDP ratios are set to rise significantly all over the world as a result of the coronavirus crisis. This will pose a huge challenge for the EU’s member states and in particular the euro area countries, because of the strict fiscal rules that apply to them. In a consultation process that began earlier this year, the European Commission is inviting proposals for reforms to the rules.

The IMK advocates a reform focused on appropriate fiscal rules that promote short-term macroeconomic stabilisation and the long-term modernisation of the public capital stock, while still keeping the sustainability of public debt in mind.

We propose an expenditure rule for non-cyclical, non-investment expenditure coupled with a Golden Rule for public investment. As a pragmatic solution, the permissible debt-to-GDP ratio should be increased to 90%, while escape clauses should apply during times of crisis. The proposed rules should replace the EU’s current fiscal rules.

The Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure should also be reformed at the same time. As a key part of such a reform, we advocate the establishment of a Macroeconomic Dialogue in order to ensure compliance with the reformed rules and consistency of the national strategies.

Vir: IMK