Pravilo izravnanega proračuna je “nezdrava politika”

Skupina ameriških ekonomistov, med njimi štirje nobelovci, svarijo ameriško vlado in Kongres, da bi bilo sprejetje ustavnega določila o izravnanem proračunu zelo nevarno. Ekonomisti  dejansko ponavljajo osnove makroekonomije, in sicer, da bi pravilo izravnanega tekočega letnega proračuna vladi onemogočalo izvajanje proticikličnih politik z namenom stabilizacije gospodarstva v času recesij. Makroekonomija uči, da je smiselno zgolj pravilo izravnanega proračuna čez celotni poslovni cikel – torej, da si vlada v dobrih časih s proračunskimi presežki nabere “zalogo”, ki jo lahko nato v času recesije porabi za stabilizacijo gospodarstva (za avtomatske stabilizatorje in dodatno stimuliranje gospodarstva).

Ampak vso to učbeniško in praktično znanje seveda ne mora omajati ideoloških prepričanj desničarskih politikov, ki bi radi čas krize – z izgovarjanjem na potrebo po izravnanem proračunu – izkoristili za rezanje socialne države. Never waste a good crisis!

A balanced budget amendment to the Constitution would be “very unsound policy” that would adversely affect the economy, a group of leading economists including four Nobel laureates explain in a letter today to President Obama and Congress, which the Economic Policy Institute and the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities spearheaded.  Several constitutional amendments requiring a balanced budget have been introduced in Congress, and the Senate Judiciary Committee is holding a hearing today on the issue.

“A balanced budget amendment would mandate perverse actions in the face of recessions,” the letter notes:

In economic downturns, tax revenues fall and some outlays, such as unemployment benefits, rise.  These built-in stabilizers increase the deficit but limit declines in after-tax income and purchasing power.  To keep the budget balanced every year would aggravate recessions.

A balanced budget amendment also would prevent federal borrowing to finance infrastructure, education, research and development, environmental protection, and other vital investments.  Adding arbitrary caps on federal spending — which some balanced budget proposals include — would make the amendment even more problematic, the letter says.

The signatories include Nobel laureates Peter Diamond, Eric Maskin, Christopher Sims, and Robert Solow as well as former Federal Reserve vice chair Alan Blinder and Social Security Advisory Board chair Henry J. Aaron.

Vir: CBPP

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