Ob bok pravkar začetem srečanju evroskupine o reševanju problema grškega dolga velja pogledati tudi ameriško stališče. ZDA namreč z nestabilnostjo v Evropi oziroma s potencialnim vstopom Rusije v Grčijo, veliko izgubijo. Če se grčija ne dogovori z EU, bodo najverjetneje na pomoč morale priskočiti ZDA. Predsednik Obama je prejšnji teden izrazil jasno stališče, da je treba breme varčevanja Grčiji omiliti. Zadeva je sicer logična vsakemu tepcu. Če banka od podjetja zahteva, da hitreje vrača kredit, kot mu ostane dobička (in tako zajeda v njegov denarni tok in zmanjšuje naložbe), podjetje seveda po hitrem postopku spravi v stečaj. Za banko je najbolj racionalno, da podjetju olajša breme odplačevanja dolga s podaljšanjem ročnosti kreditov in s tem podjetju omogoči manevrski prostor, da prosti denarni tok vlaga v obstoječe in nove programe.

Podobno je z Grčijo. Če jo bodo stiskali kot limono, bodo iz nje izvlekli ves življenjski sok. Toda za razliko od limone, je Grčija živo bitje oziroma 11 milijonov živih bitij, ki se lahko in se bodo uprli. In grški puntarski virus se bo razširil v druge dele periferne Evrope. Za Evropo je racionalno, da Grčiji odplačevanje dolga naredi znosno (tudi s podaljšanjem ročnosti na 100 let, če je treba, kot pravi Ashoka Mody) in da predvsem poskuša vplivati na to, da se v Grčijo čimprej povrne gospodarska rast. Le tako lahko vrne dolg.

US President Barack Obama’s recent call to ease the austerity imposed on Greece is remarkable – and not only for his endorsement of the newly elected Greek government’s negotiating position in the face of its official creditors. Obama’s comments represent a break with the long-standing tradition of official American silence on European monetary affairs. While scholars in the United States have frequently denounced the policies of Europe’s monetary union, their government has looked the other way.

…

Lee Buchheit, a leading sovereign-debt attorney and the man who managed the eventual Greek debt restructuring in 2012, was harshly critical of the authorities’ failure to face up to reality. As he put it, “I find it hard to imagine they will now man up to the proposition that they delayed – at appalling cost to Greece, its creditors, and its official-sector sponsors – an essential debt restructuring.”

Obama may have arrived late to the right conclusion, but he expressed what should be an obvious truth: “You cannot keep on squeezing countries that are in the midst of depression.”

If Obama’s words are to count, he must continue to push for the kind of deal Greece needs – one that errs on the side of too much debt forgiveness, rather than too little. Recent analysis shows that forgiveness of Greece’s official debt is unambiguously desirable, as another bogus deal will keep the Greek economy depressed, ensuring that the problem soon recurs. If European sensitivities must be assuaged, Greece’s debt repayment could be drawn out over 100 years.

…

European authorities must come to understand that the next act of the Greek tragedy will not be confined to Greece. If relief fails to materialize, political discontent will spread, extremist forces will gain strength, and the survival of the European Union itself could be endangered.

Vir: Ashoka Mody, Bruegel