Tako nekako bi lahko opisali dojemanje v Nemčiji en teden po grških volitvah. Zdi se, da je v male možgane nemške uradne politike prek vikenda uspelo prodreti spoznanje, da z Grčijo ni vse v redu in da problem ni nič manjši, če ga ignoriraš. Lahko, da ima Nemčija prav glede predpisane terapije zdravljenja grških težav (pa nima), toda če večina Grkov terapijo zavrača kot nehumano, ima Nemčija problem. Pa ga niti ne bi imela, če bi se Grčija nahajala tam nekje v Kongu ali Sudanu. Problem za Nemčijo je v tem, da je Grčija v Evropi, v EU in v Natu. Problem je, kot sem pisal pred dnevi (Grški “izstop po nesreči” ali kako “nor” je Tsipras), da se lahko za pomoč obrne na Kitajsko in Rusijo. In Tsipras je začel flirtati z obema.

Ups, povečan kitajski ali ruski vpliv v članici Nata, EU in evro območja?! Niti slučajno! ZDA so po drugi svetovni vojni Nemčiji odpisale dolgove, oblikovale obsežen Marshallov plan za gospodarsko obnovo Evrope in spodbujale tako intenzivno multilateralno trgovinsko liberalizacijo prek GATT kot intenzivno integracijo med evropskimi državami. Vse zato, da se “rdeči komunistični sovrag” ne bi razširil v zahodno Evropo. Zdaj, 60 let kasneje, pa bi se Rusija ali Kitajska skozi stranska vrata prebili v članico Nata? Ste zmešani?!

Vidite, politika je vedno močnejša od ekonomije, morale in drugih vznesenih zadev. In nenadoma bodo vse floskule o tem, kako je treba dolg vrniti do zadnjega centa in da odpis dolga ne pride v poštev, da se morajo Grki navaditi živeti s tem, kar ustvarijo itd., razvodenele. Splavale tako po Spree kot po Maini. Tako je treba tudi razumeti nenadoma spravljive tone v komentarjih v Der Spieglu (ki je v enem tednu popolnoma obrnil kurs), ki zdaj pravi, da je konec heca in da je zdaj čas za “Realpolitik“. Čas naj bi bil za diplomacijo in kompromise. No shit, a res?!

Nemčiji naj bi (tako Spiegel) skozi zgodovino tudi odpuščali in odpisovali dolgove, zdaj naj bi bil čas, da Nemčija odpušča drugim. Da pokaže svoj leadership. Zaenkrat sicer zgolj s podaljšanjem ročnosti kreditov in znižanjem obresti (medtem ko naj bi bil odpis dolgov “out of question”).

Toda Grčija ne potrebuje samo najmanj 50% odpisa dolgov, potrebuje tudi Marshallov plan za gospodarsko obnovo. Potrebna bo mednarodna konferenca o Grčiji, ki bo grškemu gospodarstvu zagotovila za najmanj 30-40 milijard evrov neposrednih tujih investicij. Ne finančne pomoči, pač pa naložbe v gospodarstvo. Treba je ustvariti gospodarsko bazo. Grčija lahko odplača dolgove samo tako, da ustvarja mnogo višji BDP in bistveno višji izvoz. Grčija lahko odplača dolg samo tako, da od večjega ustvarjenega kolača pobere več davkov in jih nato nameni za poplačilo kreditov. Nemčiji so po drugi svetovni vojni odtegovali 5% od izvoznih prihodkov za poplačilo reparacij in kreditov.

Grčijo je treba postaviti na noge. Tako kot so ZDA in zahodne zaveznice po 2. svetovni vojni (kljub vsem grozodejstvom nacistične Nemčije) Nemčijo gospodarsko postavile na noge, da jim je nato lahko odplačala (del) kreditov in reparacij. In mimogrede obvarovala Evropo pred širjenjem komunizma.

Grčija danes je do tal porušena in demoralizirana Nemčija po drugi svetovni vojni. (S to razliko, da Grčija ni nikogar napadla in da ni povzročila za 60 milijonov smrtnih žrtev). In še več, figurativno rečeno, Grčija danes brani Evropo pred komunizmom (notranjim in zunanjim).

Je politikom v Berlinu, Bruslju in Washingtonu to tako težko razumeti?! No, mislim, da jim je nenadoma kapnilo.

The fact is that there is a political union in Europe, even if it lacks strong institutions. It is a union being created by the people. And nw that the Greek people have chosen Tsipras as their leader, everyone has a problem. And it is a problem to which Merkel, first and foremost, must find a solution.

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It also does no good to continue saying that the Greeks weren’t economically mature enough for the euro, that the Germans have showed their solidarity in the form of bailouts and that the Greeks should have made a greater effort to overcome the financial crisis in their own country. That’s all correct, but it doesn’t help so long as most Greeks see things differently. And they do. Sometimes public sentiment has a greater influence on politics than do facts.

Policies that at first seemed correct are proven wrong if they make the situation worse rather than better. And with Tsipras’ election, the situation in Europe has deteriorated dramatically. Politicians across Europe will now need to take steps to improve it. Before that can happen, they will need to define their goals and strategies.

If the situation escalates and Greece exits the euro, two major dangers lurk. One is that Tsipras will secure the money his country needs from Russia or China and he has already hinted at such a direction. Should he? The answer is no, because those who become financially dependent on Russia or China could soon become stooges of an authoritarian state. Even if Greece were to leave the euro zone, it would still remain a member of the EU, meaning Putin or Xi Jinping would then have a voice in Europe and in NATO. His opposition to further sanctions against Russia shows that Tsipras has no scruples on the issue.

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That’s why there need to be two goals — for Greece to remain part of the euro zone and for the common currency to remain stable, as difficult as it might be to reconcile the two. The situation is difficult and there’s no room in the debate right now for political know-it-alls. It is time for realpolitik, for small steps.

This means that Germany must display forbearance. Germans have been forgiven for so much in their own history that they should also be capable of forgiving others. Despite mistakes made by the Greeks, solidarity remains the correct course. That’s not to suggest that the Tsipras administration can ignore the treaties Greece has with the EU. Nor should there be a debt haircut, because Spain and Portugal would demand equal treatment and that would place an unbearable strain on the euro zone. However, deferments and interest rate discounts are possible. No one should be too proud to talk about the possibility of concessions.

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Exactly 200 years ago, Europe’s rulers succeeded at the Vienna Congress in balancing their interests, creating a halfway stable situation that lasted for decades, even though the temptation was great at the time to solve problems with weapons. The situation is much easier for European democrats today. Now they must show that they understand the concepts of diplomacy and compromise.

Vir: Der Spiegel