Na do sedaj znane konture napovedanega programa kvantitativnega sproščanja (QE), ki naj bi ga v četrtek predstavil Mario Draghi, se je danes v The Economistu odzval Yanis Varoufakis, ugledni profesor na Atenski univerzi (prej University of Austin) in kandidat na listi Syrize ter verjetni novi grški finančni minister. Varoufakis, ki je novembra lani v The Economistu že predstavil svoj program optimalnega QE (prek izdaje infrastrukturnih obveznic EIB), je zelo kritičen do predloga, ki kroži v javnosti, da naj bi nacionalne državne obveznice odkupovale kar nacionalne centralne banke.

Po njegovem gre pri tem najprej za nekredibilno signaliziranje ECB, da namerava z vsemi sredstvi obrniti deflacijska pričakovanja, na drugi strani pa za jasen signal finančnim trgom, da se evrsko območje fragmentira. Da imamo skupno valuto, ne pa tudi skupne monetarne politike. To naj bi še povečalo razpone v zahtevanih donosih na obveznice med posameznimi državami in pripomoglo k poglobitvi finančne nestabilnosti.

Namesto tega Varoufakis še enkrat predlaga, da EIB izda infrastrukturne obveznice, ki bi jih nato v okviru programa QE odkupila ECB. To bi predvsem (1) preprečilo napihovanje kapitalskih balonov, (2) zagotovilo sveža sredstva za vlaganja v infrastrukturo, privabilo zasebne naložbe ter spodbudilo rast, (3) se izognilo pravni dilemi ali s tem ECB financira državne dolgove ter (4) dalo jasen signal finančnim trgom, da ECB misli resno z izganjanjem deflacije.

To avoid all of the above pitfalls and maximize the asset-purchase programme’s impact, I have already proposed a different approach: that the European Central Bank should purchase a single asset in the secondary markets: European Investment Bank bonds. To make this programme macroeconomically significant, the European Investment Bank should at the same time embark upon a large-scale, pan-euro-zone investment-led recovery programme, safe in the knowledge that the ECB is standing by to keep EIB-bond yields ultra-low. Such a partnership between Europe’s two significant institutions, the ECB and the EIB, would:

• promote monetary stability and an investment-led recovery
• overcome the ECB’s legal difficulties regarding member-state debt-financing (since no sovereign debt would be involved)
• avoid inflating asset prices (as the ECB’s intervention would be channeled directly into investments in the real economy, rather than inflating paper values)
• signal to markets and citizens Europe’s determination to defeat deflation, bolster investment without new government debt, and crowd in private investment

Summing up, the ECB’s efforts to regain control of monetary policy and to defeat deflationary expectations are to be commended. However, the ECB’s governing council should attempt to come up with an asset-purchase programme that is both effective and an enemy of the euro zone’s ongoing fragmentation. Doing something is not always better than doing nothing, especially when there are alternatives better than either.

Vir: Yanis Varoufakis, The Economist