Whatever medicine is being doled out isn’t working. Citigroup Chief Economist Willem Buiter recently described the Bank of England’s policy as “an intellectual potpourri of factoids, partial theories, empirical regularities without firm theoretical foundations, hunches, intuitions, and half-developed insights.” And that, he said, is better than things countries are trying elsewhere.
There is a doctor in the house, and his prescriptions are more relevant than ever. True, he’s been dead since 1946. But even in the past tense, the British economist, investor, and civil servant John Maynard Keynes has more to teach us about how to save the global economy than an army of modern Ph.D.s equipped with models of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium. The symptoms of the Great Depression that he correctly diagnosed are back, though fortunately on a smaller scale: chronic unemployment, deflation, currency wars, and beggar-thy-neighbor economic policies.
An essential and enduring insight of Keynes is that what works for a single family in hard times will not work for the global economy. One family whose breadwinner loses a job can and should cut back on spending to make ends meet. But everyone can’t do it at once when there’s generalized weakness because one person’s spending is another’s income. The more people cut back spending to increase their savings, the more the people they used to pay are forced to cut back their own spending, and so on in a downward spiral known as the Paradox of Thrift. Income shrinks so fast that savings fall instead of rise. The result: mass unemployment.
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“There are still many people in America who regard depressions as acts of God. I think Keynes proved that the responsibility for these occurrences does not rest with Providence,” Bertrand Russell, the philosopher, wrote in his autobiography in 1969.
Enthusiasm for Keynes waxes and wanes. The last time the gawky Brit made a splash was 2008-09, during the global financial crisis. People who had borrowed extravagantly, using their houses as ATMs, turned overnight into financial Calvinists, cutting spending to pay down debt. Nervous chief executive officers simultaneously cut back on corporate investing. That led to a lack of demand for goods and services. Unemployment shot up, reaching 10 percent in the U.S. in 2009. Even conservative economists who generally eschewed Keynes knew a Paradox of Thrift when it punched them in the nose. “When things collapse, everybody becomes a Keynesian,” says Peter Temin, a professor emeritus of economics at Massachusetts Institute of Technology and co-author with University of Oxford economist David Vines of a new book, Keynes: Useful Economics for the World Economy.
Richard Posner, the free-market federal appellate judge, wrote a 2009 article for the New Republic titled “How I Became a Keynesian.” Harvard University economist Martin Feldstein, a longtime deficit hawk who was President Reagan’s chief economic adviser, wrote an op-ed in the Washington Post in October 2008 saying, “The only way to prevent a deepening recession will be a temporary program of increased government spending.” The following February, Congress passed a $787 billion stimulus, albeit smaller than Keynesian economists advocated and with no Republican votes in the House. Even Germany, that bastion of austerity, put aside its misgivings and approved its biggest stimulus package ever.
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Enter Lord Keynes. Cutting interest rates is fine for raising growth in ordinary times, he said, because lower rates induce consumers to spend rather than save while stimulating businesses to invest. But where rates sink to the “lower bound” of zero, he showed, central banks become nearly powerless, while fiscal policy (taxes and spending) becomes highly effective as a fix for inadequate demand. Governments can raise spending to stimulate demand without having to worry about crowding out private investment—because there’s plenty of unused capacity, and their spending won’t lift interest rates.
It’s the closest thing economists have found to a free lunch. Keynes, ever the provocateur, argued that in a deep recession anything the government did to induce economic activity was better than nothing—even burying bottles stuffed with bank notes in coal mines for people to dig up.
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Keynes could be difficult and inconsistent. Paul Samuelson, the late Nobel laureate economist, described his book The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money as “badly written, poorly organized … arrogant, bad-tempered, polemical, and not overly generous in its acknowledgments,” before summing it up as “in short, a work of genius.”
Love him or hate him, there’s no one like Keynes on the world stage today. He was a statesman, a philosopher, a bohemian lover of ballet, and a member along with Virginia Woolf in the artsy, intellectual Bloomsbury Group. He made and lost fortunes as an investor and died rich. In 1919, in a prescient book called The Economic Consequences of the Peace, he condemned harsh reparations imposed on Germany after World War I, which were so punitive that they helped create the conditions for Adolf Hitler’s Third Reich. In 1936 he essentially invented the field of macroeconomics in his masterwork, The General Theory. From 1944 until close to his death at age 62 two years later, he led Britain’s delegation in negotiations that resulted in the founding of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
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