Empirični test “živalskih nagonov” v ekonomiji

John M. Keynes je v Splošni teoriji (1936) zanikal veljavnost Sayevega zakona (vsaka ponudba vedno najde povpraševanje) in pokazal, da brezposelnost (neravnotežje) v času depresije lahko traja v nedogled, to persistentnost brezposelnosti v času negotovosti pa pripisal “živalskim nagonom” investitorjev in njihovim samo-izpolnjujočim pričakovanjem. Roger Farmer je leta 2012 v članku “Animal Spirits, Persistent Unemployment and the Belief Function” te živalske nagone vgradil v mikrofundiran makro model, ki omogoča multipla ravnotežja in pokazal, da ta model bolje pojasnjuje dogajanje v ameriškem gospodarstvu kot novo-keynesianski model z “lepljivimi cenami”.

V še vročem članku “A demand-driven search model with self-fulfilling expectationspa Paolo Gelain in Marco Guerrazi testirata Farmerjev model in pokažeta, da so v ozadju oscilacij ameriškega gospodarstva v zadnjih 30 letih šoki v povpraševanju (in ne ponudbeni šoki, kot uči standardna neoklasična teorija) in da je tudi v ozadju zadnje Velike recesije velik povpraševalni šok:

In this paper, we implement Bayesian econometric techniques to analyze a theoretical framework built along the lines of Farmer’s micro-foundation of the General Theory. Specifically, we test the ability of a demand-driven search model with self-fulfilling expectations to match the behaviour of the US economy over the last thirty years. The main findings of our empirical investigation are the following. First, all over the period, our model fits data very well. Second, demand shocks are the most relevant in explaining the variability of concerned variables. In addition, our estimates reveal that a large negative demand shock caused the Great Recession via a sudden drop of confidence. Overall, those results are consistent with the main features of the New ‘Farmerian’ Economics as well as to latest demand-side explanations of the finance-induced recession.

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