OECD je danes v Ljubljani predstavil OECD Economic Survey SLOVENIA, v katerem kot glavne probleme v Sloveniji navaja neizvedene reforme, neizvedeno sanacijo bank, močno zadolženost podjetij ter posledično negativni učinek na gospodarsko aktivnost, brezposelnost in zastal izvoz.

Analiza stanja v Sloveniji s strani OECD ni nič drugačna, kot če bi jo delal sam:

Slovenia has been hit hard by a boom-bust cycle, compounded by reform backlogs and the euro area sovereign debt crisis. The reduction of public and private sector indebtedness is significantly weighing on growth amid tight financial conditions, growing unemployment and stalling export performance. Although important reforms have been adopted in 2012 and early 2013, additional and far-reaching reforms are needed as soon as possible to restore confidence and head off the risks of a prolonged downturn and constrained access to financial markets.

The authorities have adopted an ambitious fiscal consolidation path, but the fiscal position is not yet sustainable. The budget deficit rose significantly during the downturn and restoring public finances has proved difficult, despite marked progress in 2012, contributing to tensions in the sovereign bond market. A recent reform of the pension system is a welcome step forward, but bold additional reforms are needed to curtail upcoming ageing costs and stabilise the public debt. To boost credibility, the authorities have adopted an ambitious fiscal consolidation path, which is commendable, but have so far relied too heavily on temporary steps, across-the-board cuts in the public wage bill and reductions in discretionary expenditure. Fiscal consolidation should focus on permanent measures while letting automatic stabilisers operate.

Restructuring welfare spending would help achieve fiscal sustainability. While an increase in social spending is appropriate to cushion the impact of the deep recession, income inequality is already relatively low in Slovenia and there is room to restructure the welfare state without undermining the quality of public services. Despite recent progress in means testing of cash transfers following the introduction of a comprehensive electronic system, the eligibility criteria could be further tightened.

Potential growth has fallen significantly since the outset of the crisis. Boosting potential growth requires structural reforms, but the political economy of reform remains difficult, notably because it has been easy to use a referendum to veto a law. The ongoing discussion in Slovenia on ways to introduce stricter criteria on the use of referendums is hence welcome.

Ključna priporočila OECD so tudi takšna, kot jih ponavljamo že nekaj časa in kot jih je danes slišala v Bruslju Alenka Bratušek. Verjamem pa da jih mnogi v Sloveniji ne želijo slišati (in jih bodo označili kot skrajno neoliberalna). Navajam jih kar v originalu, da ne bo kaj “izgubljeno s prevodom“:

Solving the banking crisis

• Conduct and disclose the main results of new top-down and bottom-up (“due-diligence”) stress tests of the banking sector, which should be conducted under conservative and transparent assumptions.
• Recapitalise distressed but viable banks, preferably by issuing shares, and wind down non-viable banks. To reduce the fiscal costs of bank resolutions, holders of subordinated debt and lower-ranked hybrid capital instruments should absorb losses.
• Privatise state-owned banks and do not retain a blocking minority shareholding.
• Adopt a legal framework for out-of-court restructuring of distressed businesses, streamline in-court procedures and encourage firms to apply early for insolvency.

Strengthening fiscal sustainability

• Focus fiscal consolidation on permanent measures while letting automatic stabilisers operate.
• Continue to reduce high-income earners’ eligibility for family benefits and strengthen means testing of education-related benefits.
• Continue to gradually cut the combined generosity of unemployment benefits, social assistance and other transfers for the unemployed and inactive persons to increase work incentives and strengthen fiscal sustainability.
• Raise pupil-teacher ratios in pre-primary and lower secondary education and class sizes in primary and lower secondary education to reduce costs. Introduce universal tuition fees along with means-tested grants and loans with income-contingent repayments to boost spending efficiency.
• Further rationalise the public health benefit basket and shift from inpatient to ambulatory care.
• Broaden the tax base of compulsory health insurance to working students and raise contribution rates for pensioners.
• Pursue pension reform by gradually raising the pension eligibility age and contributory periods, and eventually indexing them to life expectancy. Consider further cutting replacement rates by lowering effective accrual rates and calculating pension rights over lifetime contributions.
• Bolster the credibility of the expenditure rule by transparently setting its parameters, defining escape clauses and adopting a corrective mechanism for deviations from the rule.

Boosting potential growth through structural reforms

• As currently envisaged in Slovenia to ease the progress of economic reforms, tighten criteria to veto a law by referendum.
• Further reduce labour market dualism by phasing out the preferential treatment of student work.
• Reduce state ownership in the economy, ease the regulation of professional services and strengthen the Competition Protection Office.

Verjamem, da se je marsikomu ob priporočeni sanaciji bank (na način, da bi tudi dolžniki nosili breme izgube, da bi likvidirali “nerešljive” banke, da bi banke dokapitalizirali na trgu, državne pa popolnoma privatizirali) dvignil pritisk. Verjamem, da se je še bolj dvignil pritisk pripadnikom Lukšičeve socialdemokratske stranke ter socialističnim sindikatom ob priporočilih glede zniževanja socialnih izdatkov (zmanjšanje socialnih prejemkov in njihova še močnejša vezava na prihodke in premoženje upravičencev, dodatna obdavčitev študentov, ki delajo, uvedba šolnin, dvig upokojitvene starosti, dvig socialnih prispevkov za upokojence itd.).

Toda, drage gospe in gospodje, natanko te reforme Slovenijo čakajo, če bo morala zaprositi za pomoč. Lahko jih naredimo sami, preventivno in bolj postopno, lahko pa jih naredimo pod prisilo trojke z učinkovitim pritiskom glede pogojevanja izplačila posameznih tranš pomoči.

Da ne bo nesporazuma – priporočila OECD niso neoliberalni napad na Slovenijo, pač pa koristna priporočila, ki lahko to državo spet naredijo uspešno. Ker teh reform do sedaj še nismo naredili, je danes naša blaginja za 10% nižja kot leta 2008.