Smrt zaradi dolga

Did postwar Germany “deserve” the Marshall Plan?  No.  Was the Marshall Plan and the 1953 debt agreement wise policies to give Germany a fresh start?  Yes.  Did Russia “deserve” debt relief in 1992?  No.  Would it have been wise to offer Russia such relief?  Yes.

Does Greece “deserve” debt relief?  No.  The Greek economy has been badly managed for a long time.  Would debt relief for Greece be a good idea?  Yes.

My point is that believing that indebted sovereign governments should always service their debts is a good working principle nine-tenths of the time, but can be a disaster the tenth time around.  We must not push societies to the breaking point, even when they have only themselves to blame for their indebtedness.

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Paul Romer: Stigler Conviction vs. Feynman Integrity:

Še en kamenček v razumevanju prevrata v makroekonomiji, Lucasovega puča na univerzi v Chicagu, ki je v makroekonomijo vnesel mikrofundiranost, reprezentativne agente in racionalna pričakovanja. Ali preprosteje rečeno, puč, ki makroekonomijo obrnil na glavo s predpostavko, da je makroekonomija agregat racionalnih posameznikov in popolnoma učinkovitih trgov.

Paul Romer:

Here’s how I would restate Krugman’s account. The path that led Lucas and his followers to increasingly implausible positions defended using increasingly adversarial arguments starts with Stigler conviction and a commitment to an initial conjecture that turned out to be false–that during a recession, the behavior of the aggregate economy can be characterized by a model that relies on imperfect information and a signal extraction problem that treats market clearing as a maintained auxiliary hypothesis.

To me, this gives a plausible description of how events unfolded, but it leaves the fundamental cause unexplained. Why did Lucas, who as far as I can tell was originally guided by Feynman integrity, switch to the mode of Stigler conviction? Market clearing did not have to evolve from auxiliary hypothesis to dogma that could not be questioned.

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Zakaj bi grški posojiodajalci morali trpeti

Adam Davidson napiše to, kar v grški moralni zgodbi večina tako rada pozablja. Ko so si ameriški potrošniki brez služb ali z nizkimi dohodki izposojali denar pri bankah za nakup nepremičnin, ki si jih niso mogli privoščiti (t.i. NINJA loans – no income, no job, no assets loans), je javnost krivdo pripisala neodgovornim špekulativnim bankirjem, ki niso upoštevali tveganj. Ko so slovenske banke s kamioni dostavljale denar  gradbincem, finančnim investitorjem, prevzemnikom in menedžerskim prevzemnikom, je javnost odgovornost večinoma pripisala neodgovornim bankam in regulatorju (Banki Slovenije), ki je gledala stran, ko so šle banke v nevzdržno visoka tveganja.

No, in ko so domače (grške), francoske, nemške, nizozemske in druge banke na veliko kupovale grške državne obveznice po višjih, vendar glede na tveganost po smešno nizkih obrestnih merah, in to tik pred razglasitvijo nesolventnosti, je vesoljna javnost, gnana z nemško politično in medijsko kampanjo, večinoma za to obtožila neodgovorne in lene Grke, ki so se zadolževali preko glave za življenje prek svojih zmožnosti. In pri tem brez kančka slabe vesti pozabile, da so finančne institucije naredile zelo slabe domače naloge pri ocenah tveganj.

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Varoufakis: In conversation with El Pais

jpd:

Varoufakis v intervjuju o Planu X, Planu B ter eksaktna razlaga fiskalnega waterboardinga in finančnega terorizma.

Cukrček pa je oznaka odnosa z Dijsselsblomom, do katerega pa ni moglo priti, vendar ne samo zato, ker je slednji po Varoufakisovem mnenju ‘intelektualni lahkolategornik’, pač pa prvenstveno, ker ni zaupanja vreden, zaradi laži in spletkarjenja.

Originally posted on Yanis Varoufakis:

Claudi Pérez, of El Pais, inteviewed me in our Athens apartment last week. Here is the article that emerged recently in El Pais. The complete, unedited, transcript (in English) follows:

Screen Shot 2015-08-02 at 15.08.00

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Vikend branje

Brez njega ne bi bilo ‘Dancing barefoot’

Ivan Kral je kajpak tisti Čeh, ki je v rosnih letih postal Američan in še malo kasneje vzel v roke kitaro ter se podal na pot po njujorških klubih sedemdesetih let prejšnjega stoletja. Saj se spomnite: New York Dolls, Kiss, pa pozneje Ramones, Patti Smith, Television … Širše znan je Kral postal s Patti Smith Group (na albumu Wawe je njegova Dancing Barefoot), kasneje pa je med drugim sodeloval z Iggyjem Popom (BangBang); danes živi med Albornom (Michigan) in Prago.

Pred današnjim koncertom Patti Smith v Križankah priporočam intervju, ki ga je Vojko Flegar pred leti naredil z Ivanom Kralom. Brez njega ne bi bilo ‘Dancing barefoot’.

ivankral.mp3

Death by Debt: My Response to The German Finance Ministry, by Jeffrey Sachs

jpd:

Jeffrey Sachs v odgovoru nemško ministrstvo za finance poduči o tem, zakaj ima Nemčija na podlagi dveh lastnih izkušenj zgodovinsko odgovornost, da Grčije ne prisli v smrt zaradi dolga, pač pa da ji pomaga, da se postavi na noge in postane sposobna odplačevati dolg.

Seveda ne pričakujem, da bi nemški moralisti in njihovi sledniki bili sposobni razumeti nauke zgodovine oziroma da bi bili sposobni “preklopiti” iz moralike v razumni način delovanja.

Originally posted on Yanis Varoufakis:

Dr. Ludger Schuknecht, senior economist at the Germany Finance Ministry, explains his ministry’s viewpoint regarding Greece. This viewpoint essentially holds that Eurozone countries should live within their means; adjust to their debt burdens; and take their reform medicine as needed. If they do so, they will be successful, as illustrated by Ireland, Spain, and Portugal. Greece has only itself to blame, and indeed was on track to recover as of late 2014 if it had not deviated from its course.  

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