Glavno sporočilo spodnjega članka o podnebni konferenci COP29:
Glavna ovira za doseganje naložbenih ciljev za omejitev globalnega segrevanja ni cena obnovljivih virov v primerjavi z energijo fosilnih goriv, pač pa donosnost obnovljivih virov v primerjavi s proizvodnjo fosilnih goriv. Tržne rešitve ne bodo delovale, ker zasebnim podjetjem preprosto ni donosno vlagati v blažitev podnebnih sprememb.
No, jaz bi k temu dodal dvoje. Prvič, večina ljudi, ki se ukvarjajo s podnebnimi spremembami, ne razume, da v njihovem modelu človeškega vpliva na povečanje CO2 izpustov ključno vlogo igra globalizacija svetovne trgovine. Ko smo proizvodnjo industrijskih izdelkov preselili v Azijo in na globalni Jug, smo v globalnem Severu nekoliko znižali izpuste CO2. Toda v Aziji in na jugu zdaj proizvajajo te izdelke bistveno bolj umazano (nižji okoljski srandardi) in za potrebno energijo za njihovo proizvodnjo dnevno odpirajo nove elektrarne na premog in plin, nato pa te izdelke na daleč najbolj umazan način s kontejnerskimi ladjami vozimo nazaj na Sever. Bistvo zgodbe je, da se bodisi odpovemo globalizaciji ali da manj razvite države, ki za nas proizvajajo vse izdelke, prepričamo, da energijo proizvajajo na bolj čist način in da izdelke k nam vozimo na bolj čist način.
In drugič, subvencije za obnovljive vire, ki povečujejo donosnost v njihove naložbe, ne delujejo in ne vodijo k vzdržnim rešitvam. Takoj, ko jih umaknemo ali zmanjšamo, donosmost “obnovljivih projektov” kolapsne, dolgoročno pa si nobena država ne more privoščiti v nedogled subvencionirati zasebna podjetja. Rešitev je treba iskati drugje – ne v sončnih in vetrnih elektrarnah, gromozanskih baterijah in zelenem vodiku, ker je ta koncept tehnično nevzdržen in ekstremno drag, pač pa v hidro in jedrski energiji, ki sta izdatna, stabilna, brezogljična, prijazna do okolja (glede na alternative) in dolgoročno daleč najcenejša vira. In ne potrebujeta nobenega subvencioniranja. Tu pa je treba angažirati javne finance, ki edine lahko zagotovijo nizko ceno financiranja. Zasebni kapital si bo hotel odrezati prevelik donos, zato pozabimo nanj pri teh ključnih strateških naložbah v prihodnost.
There was a tortuous and painful end to COP29, the international climate change conference held in oil-rich Baku, Azerbaijan. The main issue was how much would the rich countries hand over to the poor countries to pay for the measures to mitigate global warming and handle the damage caused by rising ‘greenhouse gas’ emissions. The finance target set was for more than $1.3trn a year by 2035. But the final deal was based on just $300bn in actual grants and low-interest loans from the developed world. The rest would have to come from private investors and perhaps levies on fossil fuels and frequent flyers – the details of which remained vague.
The offer from the ‘developed’ countries, funded from their national budgets and overseas aid, is supposed to form the inner core of a so-called ‘layered’ finance settlement, accompanied by a middle layer of new forms of finance such as new taxes on fossil fuels and high-carbon activities, carbon trading and ‘innovative’ forms of finance; and an outermost layer of investment from the private sector, into projects such as solar and windfarms. This was a ‘copout’ from providing real money transfers.
Mohamed Adow, director of the Power Shift Africa thinktank, said: “This [summit] has been a disaster for the developing world. It’s a betrayal of both people and planet, by wealthy countries who claim to take climate change seriously. Rich countries have promised to ‘mobilise’ some funds in the future, rather than provide them now. The cheque is in the mail. But lives and livelihoods in vulnerable countries are being lost now.”
DAMIJAN blog 