Marco Rubio: Nepošteno je bilo, da so napeljali ljudi k prepričanju, da bo Ukrajina lahko premagala Rusijo

Kar se mene tiče, Marco Rubio, nov ameriški zunanji minister, ni oseba, ki bi jo človek povabil domov na večerjo ali šel z njo na pijačo. Vendar je nov ameriški zunanji minister in potrebno je pazljivo prisluhniti njegovim stališčem. Zaradi tega spodaj objavljam nekaj zanimivih pasusov iz njegovega intervjuja v Megyn Kelly Showu (objavljenem tudi na spletnem portalu State Departmenta). Meni so še posebej zanimivi predvsem deli, ki se nanašajo na (1) geopolitični strateški pogled nosilca zunanje politike nove ameriške administracije, (2) pogled na urejanje odnosov s KItajsko in (3) pogled na rešitev vojne v Ukrajini. Vendar priporočam branje celotnega intervjuja, ker je za razliko od podobnih zelo zanimiv.

Prvič, Marco Rubio v svojih pogledih zelo eksplicitno odstopa od dosedanjega 35 let dolgega obdobja enopolarnega sistema liberalne demokracije, ki so ga forsirale ameriške administracije po koncu hladne vojne. Namesto tega odkrito govori, da je zanj svet multipolaren in ki temelji na  ravnotežju moči med velesilami. Vsekakor osvežitev glede na zadnjih 35 let in je – v skladu s teorijo zunanjepolitičnega realizma, ki jo zastopa John Mearsheimer – temelj za večjo globalno stabilnost, kjer ZDA več ne igrajo globalnega policaja, pač pa vsaka država zasleduje lastne interese in jih, kjer se razlikujejo od interesov drugih držav, poskuša uveljaviti prek diplomatskih sredstev.

SECRETARY RUBIO:  Yeah.  Well, I think we spend a lot of time in American politics debating tactics, like what we’re going to do, who we’re going to sanction, what letter we’re going to send or whatever.  I think it really has to start with strategy:  What is the strategic objective?  What’s the purpose, the mission?  And I think the mission of American foreign policy – and this may sound sort of obvious, but I think it’s been lost.  The interest of American foreign policy is to further the national interest of the United States of America, right?  I mean, every — 

QUESTION:  America first. 

SECRETARY RUBIO:  Well, and that’s the way the world has always worked.  The way the world has always worked is that the Chinese will do what’s in the best interests of China, the Russians will do what’s in the best interest of Russia, the Chileans are going to do what’s in the best interest of Chile, and the United States needs to do what’s in the best interest of the United States.  Where our interests align, that’s where you have partnerships and alliances; where our differences are not aligned, that is where the job of diplomacy is to prevent conflict while still furthering our national interests and understanding they’re going to further theirs.  And that’s been lost. 

And I think that was lost at the end of the Cold War, because we were the only power in the world, and so we assumed this responsibility of sort of becoming the global government in many cases, trying to solve every problem.  And there are terrible things happening in the world.  There are.  And then there are things that are terrible that impact our national interest directly, and we need to prioritize those again.  So it’s not normal for the world to simply have a unipolar power.  That was not – that was an anomaly.  It was a product of the end of the Cold War, but eventually you were going to reach back to a point where you had a multipolar world, multi-great powers in different parts of the planet.  We face that now with China and to some extent Russia, and then you have rogue states like Iran and North Korea you have to deal with.   

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Obrisi Trumpove nove zunanje politike: Hitro stisniti Rusijo in Iran ter pomagati Izraelu, da bi se lahko lotil Kitajske

Trumpova bum-bum diplomacija, kot se kaže v obrisih glede na izbrane osebke za ključne pozicije (glejte Bloombergov newsletter spodaj), je najbolje opisana z zgornjim naslovom. Ključni cilj Trumpa naj bi bil hitra umiritev “nestrateških” konfliktnih področij (Ukrajina, Rusija, Gaza, Iran), da bi se lahko posvetil sovražniku št. 1 – to je Kitajski. Kitajska je edina, ki zares ogroža globalno (gospodarsko, tehnološko in politično) hegemonijo ZDA.

K temu je treba dodati še obrise napovedane strategije glede zaustavtve vojne z Ukrajino, kot jo je skiciral Mike Waltz, najverjetnejši bodoči svetovalec za nacionalno varnost. Ta strategija naj bi izgledala takole:

  1. v prvem koraku je treba stisniti Rusijo prek pritiska na Kitajsko in Indijo, da ne bi več kupovali ruskih energentov,
  2. hkrati bi evropske države prenehale kupovati naftne derivate iz indijskih rafinerij (kjer predelujejo rusko nafto) in
  3. hkrati bi ZDA začele prodajati večje količine utekočinjenega zemeljskega plina (LNG) v Evropo,
  4. v drugem koraku bi Ukrajini “sneli lisice” in ji dovolili, da z ameriškimi, britanskimi in francoskimi raketami dolgega dosega začne raketirati cilje globoko na ruskem ozemlju.

Na ta način naj bi Trump Rusijo prisilili v pogajanja in hkrati dal bonbonček Ukrajini, da bo lažje pristala na pogajanja.

Že prejšnji teden pa je pricurljal obris predloga iz Trumpovega kroga glede bodoče mirovne rešitve za Ukrajino. Ta bi v grobem izgledala tako:

  1. Razmejitev med Ukrajino in Rusijo se zamrzne vzdolž sedanje frontne linije,
  2. Med frontno linijo in preostankom Ukrajine se oblikuje demilitarizirano območje,
  3. Ukrajina pristane, da naslednjih 20 let ne bo prosila za vstop v Nato,
  4. ZDA Ukrajini še naprej vojaško pomagajo, kar bi ji dalo neke vrste varnostne garancije.

No, zanimivo bo videti ruski in evropski odziv na te obrise predlogov. Pomembno pa je, da se pogovori o mirni rešitvi vojne sploh začnejo. Naj diplomacija namesto orožja poišče rešitev.

Toda, če bi vsebinsko komentiral te idejne skice, bi bil prvi komentar: Good luck with that.

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Razlogi za Trumpov povratek

Andrew Korybko

Trump just beat Kamala despite the formidable odds that were against him. He survived two assassination attempts, withstood the government’s lawfare, and is on track to secure the popular vote even though the legacy media was fully in support of his opponent. Speaking of her, she’s infamous for repeating her phrase about America becoming “unburdened by what has been”, which means moving past the Trump era. Ironically, the country just moved past her, and here’s how it happened:

———-

1. “It’s The Economy, Stupid!”

Democrat consultant James Carville famously coined the abovementioned phrase in reference to the most important electoral issue for most Americans. It still rings true to this day since the majority of the country is worse off after four years of the Biden-Harris Administration than it was after Trump’s first term. It doesn’t matter what the reasons for that are since such developments strongly work against incumbents. Americans accordingly voted to bring back the golden economy that Trump ushered in.

2. Immigration, Both Legal & Illegal, Is Out Of Control

Immigration is always a hot button issue, but it was even more so during this election due to the unprecedented influx of illegal immigrants that invaded the country under Biden and viral reports of legal Haitian immigrants brought in by the government eating people’s pets in Ohio. Trump pledged to crack down on the illegal component and more properly vet those who come into the country via legal channels to ensure that they’ll assimilate and integrate. This approach is wildly popular with Americans.

3. Folks Are Afraid Of World War III

Americans have never been as afraid of World War III as they are now. The NATO-Russian proxy war in Ukraine and the back-and-forth Israeli-Iranian strikes, each of which have the potential to spiral into the apocalypse in the worst-case scenario, were unthinkable under Trump. He promised to do his utmost to bring peace to Europe and the Mideast if he’s re-elected while Kamala promised more of the same policies that brought the world to the brink of war. A vote for Trump therefore became a vote for peace.

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Trumpova zunanja politika na Bidnovih ruševinah

Pulitzerjev nagrajenec Seymour Hersh ima dokaj podobne poglede tako na dizaster Bidnove zunanje politike (sponzoriranje vojne v Ukrajini in masakra nad Palestinci v Gazi in Zahodnem bregu) kot na konture bodoče (morebitne) Trumpove zunanje politike. Morda bo Trump pomagal hitreje končati vojno v Ukrajini, toda glede ravnanja Izraela bo kvečjemu enako ali bolj prizanesljiv. No, problem Kamale Harris kot protikandidatke je bil, da se glede zunanje politike ni znala distancirati of Bidna in ponuditi boljše vizije. Trump je znal ponuditi vsaj nekaj boljših rešitev (končanje vojne v Ukrajini, transakcijski odnos do Kitajske in Evrope), Kamala pa je v svoji vsebinski praznini izgledala kot bleda kopija katastrofalne zunanje politike njenega nekdanjega šefa. Kot pravi Hersh, Obama je slabo opravil svoje delo, ko je postavil Harrisovo za demokratsko predsedniško kandidatko.

___________

It wasn’t close.

Americans once again rejected a flawed female Democratic candidate in favor of Donald Trump, who comes to office with grievances and revenge on his mind, along with a welcome determination to end the war in Ukraine and a far less welcome commitment to continue the Biden policy of unfettered support for the murderous Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister.

Here are some day-after thoughts about an election I thought in my dotage that Trump would not win, especially because his campaign gave no sign of any regrets for his abysmal response to his defeat by Joe Biden four years ago.

There are lots of lessons here. First of all, Barack Obama continued a lousy precedent by picking a weak vice president after winning the primaries in 2008. Biden was considered by some of his peers in the Senate as a vain and lazy second-rater: a weak vice presidential choice who was publicly loyal but increasingly resentful of what he saw as Obama’s dismissive attitude toward him. Once elected to the presidency in 2020, he replayed the Obama mantra by selecting a vice president who posed no political threat. Kamala Harris, in turn, did the same by picking a political novice who added little to her campaign and, if elected, would be, at best, a White House liaison to high school football and America’s heartland.

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