Andrew Korybko

Over a week has passed since the latest BRICS Summit in Kazan so it’s possible to assess what exactly it achieved now that the dust has settled. The primary takeaway is the Kazan Declaration, which Director General of the prestigious Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) Andrey Kortunov described as “a manifesto for the new world order”. His praise shouldn’t be taken lightly since he’s an archetypical realist who also earlier tempered expectations about what BRICS was capable of agreeing to.

Titled “What BRICS Cannot and What It Can Deliver”, Kortunov explained that: “BRICS cannot become a global economic integration project”; BRICS will not turn into a multilateral political or security alliance of an anti-Western nature”; BRICS is not likely to contribute a lot to resolving disputes between its members or disputes between its members and third parties”; and “BRICS will never become an analogue to G7.”

He then juxtaposed these assessments with his expectations that “BRICS can promote trade and investments among its members, as well as contribute to economic and social development of these members”; “BRICS could help to shape common non-Western approaches to global problems”; “BRICS is capable of contributing to the dialogue of civilizations”; and “BRICS can become an important source of ideas and proposals for UN, G20 and other universal bodies.”

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Spodaj je odlična ocena sklepov zadnjega srečanja skupine BRICS+, ki se je končalo ta teden v ruskem Kazanu. Francoski ekonomist Jacques Sapir ocenjuje, da bi nov plačilni (klirinški) sistem (imenovan BRICS Clear), ki bi zajemal bilateralno trgovino med 22 BRICS partnerskimi državami, in nova družba za zavarovanje trgovinskih tokov vodili k večji medsebojni trgovini med BRICS državami in diverziji trgovinskih tokov stran od zahodnih držav (podobno se je zgodilo z evropsko trgovino: v začetku 1950-let je bilateralna trgovina med šesterico EGS držav znašala eno tretjino skupne zunanje trgovine, nato pa je v 50 letih narasla na dve tretjini). Če danes trgovina med BRICS državami pomeni okrog 30 % svetovne trgovine in če bi v nekaj letih 80 % te trgovine šlo prek sistema BRICS Clear, bi se dobra petina svetovne trgovine de-dolarizirala. Hkrati to pomeni, da BRICS države več ne bi potrebovale toliko dolarskih rezerv, kar bi močno zmanjšalo povpraševanje po ameriških obveznicah in dolarskih imetjih. To pa lahko zamaje globalni trg z ameriškimi obveznicami in povzroči težave za ameriško finančno ministrstvo pri refinanciranju dolga Združenih držav. Temu ustrezno je treba razumeti grožnje Donalda Trumpa, da bo sankcioniral vse države, ki bi svoje mednarodne transakcije prenesle v ne-dolarske valute.

The conclusion of the 16th BRICS summit held in Kazan from October 22-24 resulted in important decisions.

It should be noted that BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), joined by 4 new countries (Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, United Arab Emirates), now represent more than 33% of global GDP compared to the G7’s 29%.

Among these decisions, three stand out: the institutionalization of a “partner countries” category within BRICS, the creation of the BRICS-Clear system to facilitate exchanges between members and partner countries, and the establishment of the BRICS (Re)Insurance Company.

The consequences of these decisions will be very significant, not only for BRICS and their associates but also for the Western world. The movement toward global “de-Westernization” is accelerating.

One of the most emblematic decisions taken at the Kazan summit was the institutionalization of the “partner countries” category within BRICS. This creates a “BRICS zone” around the core members.

The presence of Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam in this “partner” category implies that BRICS, already dominant in Asia due to China and India’s membership, could become hegemonic in this region.

The second essential decision of the 16th BRICS summit is the creation of BRICS Clear, a settlement and clearing system for both intra-BRICS trade and trade between BRICS and “partner” countries.

One of BRICS Clear’s key objectives is to create an alternative to the SWIFT system. Within the BRICS Clear system, the use of national currencies as instruments for settling international transactions will be prioritized.

Transaction clearing will be handled through a “stablecoin” managed by the New Development Bank. The clearing issue is important since trade will be multilateral (22 countries: 9 BRICS members and 13 partner countries).

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