Ameriški predsednik Trump je udarno začel svoj mandat z začasno prekinitvijo tuje pomoči, z deportacinami ilegalnih pribežnikov, z napovedjo takojšnje uvedbe carin na izdelke iz Kanade, Mehike in Kitajske ter nato še za države EU itd. Nakar je uvedbo carin začasno zamaknil in nakazal, da se hoče pogovarjati. Nekateri so to interepretirali kot tipično Trumpovo norost. Vendar ne gre za norost, pač pa za pogajalsko taktiko.

Trumpova pogajalska taktika je, da z brutalnim prvim dejanjem nasprotno stran šokira in vrže ob steno in ta je nato v strahu pripravljena narediti karkoli, da bi se izognila brutalnosti mnogo večjega nasprotnika.

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V financah velja pregovor, da so trgi lahko dlje časa iracionalni, kot vi lahko ostanete solventen. Nekako tako bi lahko presodili tudi o Trumpovem poskusu ustrahovanja Putina z napovedjo sankcij in zniževanja cen nafte prek “savdskih prijateljev” v OPEC. Prvič, ruska naftna industrija lahko ob nizki ceni nafte ostane dlje časa nad vodo kot ameriški naftni sponzorji Trumpa, ker deluje s precej nižjimi stroški. Savdski prijatelji pa imajo ogromno odprtih projektov, da bi si lahko privoščili daljše obdobje cen nafte pod 40 dolarjev za sodček. In drugič, pri Rusiji gre v vojni v Ukrajini za eksistenčno vprašanje in za specifičen nacionalni karakter, zato lahko Putin ostane dlje časa iracionalen, kot lahko ameriški in savdski Trumpovi prijatelji ostanejo solventni.

Spodaj je dober komentar Scotta Ritterja glede Trumpovega poskusa strategije ustrahovanja Rusije. Ritter, nekdanji inšpektor OZN, sicer goji določene simpatije do Rusije in je bil v času te vojne tudi na obisku v Rusiji, zato velja biti pozoren na določeno stopnjo pristranosti.

Ritter: Trump is trying to play “tough,” but it’s not working against Russia

US President Donald Trump is deluding himself into believing that he can dictate terms to Russia through threats and sanctions, said former US intelligence officer Scott Ritter in the Judging Freedom show.

He emphasized that Trump wants to present himself as a leader who can quickly end the conflict in Ukraine, but does not accept the reality that the conflict will end under the conditions set by Moscow.

Trump’s main mistake

According to Ritter, Trump’s biggest mistake lies in his approach to Russia – he believes he can continue with pressure and sanctions, but this, according to the former intelligence officer, will not work.

“He is deceiving himself.” “He promised to end the war, but he cannot accept the fact that it will be on Russia’s terms,” ​​Ritter said.

One example of Trump’s policies, Ritter argues, is his intention to manipulate oil prices to put economic pressure on Moscow.

However, according to him, this would have the opposite effect – while Russia would continue to profit from oil production, the American energy industry would suffer serious consequences.

“He is trying to play with economic pressures against Russia, whose oil industry operates with low production costs.” If the market price falls to $45 per barrel, they will still make money. On the other hand, the American energy industry would take a serious hit,” Ritter explained.

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Slika 1: DeepSeek je potreboval le 7 dni, da je dosegel 60 mio uporabnikov. ChatGPT pred njim je potreboval 60 dni, Google 515 dni itd.

Slika 2: Januarja se je v Evropi sesula prodaja Tesel, medtem ko so se ostali e-avti prodali v enakih količinah kot pred letom dni. Špekulacije so, da gre za evropski odziv na obnašanje Elona Muska. Lahko pa, da so Teslo samo izrinili Kitajci.

Slika 3: Nemška industrijska prizvodnja je že šesto leto v prostem padu, trend se je močno zaostril navzdol po začetku vojne v Ukrajini in energetski krizi. Konec 2014 je bil obseg nemške industrijske proizvodnje za 20 % nižji kot konec leta 2017. Ameriška napoved carin za EU ne obeta umiritve trenda propadanja, ker so ZDA največji izvozni trg Nemčije.

Zanimivo. Ameriško ministrstvo za pravosodje naj bi uradno razpustila delovno skupino za zaseg poslovnega premoženja ruskih subjektov in tudi delovno skupino za spremljanje ruskega in kitajskega vplivanja v ZDA. Namesto tega naj bi ssredstva preusmerilo za spremljanje mednarodnega kriminala in tihotapljenja fentanila. Torej se Trump “ne gre več” vojne proti Rusiji in ga tudi ne skrbi kitajsko in rusko vpletanje v notranje zadeve ZDA. Dodatno k temu je zanimiva informacija, da naj bi Trumpova administracija prijazno preložila organizacijo ukrajinske obrambe na vlado V. Britanije.

The U.S. Justice Department, under new Attorney General Pam Bondi, has officially disbanded Task Force KleptoCapture, the unit created during the Biden administration to seize Russian business assets in response to the Ukraine conflict. The move marks a significant shift in Washington’s approach to economic warfare against Russia.

Task Force KleptoCapture was established in 2022 with the goal of enforcing sanctions, seizing the assets of Russian oligarchs, and targeting businesses linked to the Kremlin. Over the past two years, the task force oversaw the confiscation of high-profile assets, including luxury yachts, real estate, and bank accounts, as part of Washington’s broader financial war against Moscow.

Bondi has also disbanded the Foreign Influence Task Force, which previously monitored Russian and Chinese political influence in the United States. According to sources, the Justice Department is now redirecting resources to focus on transnational crime and fentanyl trafficking, shifting away from aggressive sanction enforcement.

With U.S. enforcement weakening, previously targeted Russian individuals and businesses may now regain access to frozen assets.

Meanwhile, European governments, which have been at the forefront of maintaining sanctions against Moscow, now find themselves increasingly isolated as Washington steps back from its previous hardline stance.It is difficult and time-consuming to do the work that proves Beijing is lying. Tools that allow us to uncover the flaws of China’s own system, and the actual struggles Chinese people face, directly support the goals, security, and resilience of democratic governments.

Without the work that China nonprofits do, it will be much harder to show that China’s governance model is deeply flawed. If we can no longer prove that, it becomes much harder to understand why democracies are worth fighting for in the first place.

Vir: DD Geopolitics via X

Predvidevam, da je ključna kolateralna korist of Muskovega lomastenja po ameriških institucijah prekinitev financiranja “razvojne pomoči” v obliki financiranja “nevladnih organizacij” po svetu, katerih vloga je bila v zbiranju in pripravi informacij, ki so služile za dezinformiranje velikim tujim medijem o državi. Britanski The Economist neposredno objokuje, da se je s prekinitvijo USAID financiranja zdaj sesul celoten ekosistem dezinformiranja, na katerem so se napajali tudi njegovi novinarji, ko so prali možgane svojim bralcem glede Kitajske. Kot najbrž veste, je v zadnjih 20 letih The Economist najmanj dvakrat letno objavil kampanjo, v kakšnih hudih težavah je kitajsko gospodarstvo in kako se bo zdaj-zdaj kitajsko gospodarstvo sesulo. Kot veste, se ni. In nič ne kaže, da se bo v doglednem času. Nasprotno, kitajsko gospodarstvo nesramno hitro tehnološko prehiteva gospodarstva razvitih držav. Torej je bilo nekaj zelo hudo narobe s kvaliteto oziroma natančnostjo informacij, ki so jih o Kitajski pripravljale ameriško financirane “nevladne organizacije”. Očitno so jih načrtno pripravljale za namen dezinformiranja.

Spodaj je zapis Arnauda Betranda na to temo:

Hilarious how the Economist describes the news of the US government cutting funding to part of the vast network of anti-China propaganda shops it was financing. Or, as they put it euphemistically: “groups promoting rights in China”.

They argue that “some aid money has been very well spent” and when you read through the article to understand what they mean by that it’s because “journalists rely on them for first-hand accounts and data.”

So in effect the US government was financing the entire ecosystem: the journalists writing on China and their sources! “Money very well spent” indeed…

Ever wondered why the narrative on China was almost exclusively of the “China bad” or “China collapse” type? Wonder no more.

Hopefully this will serve to awaken people as to the extent to which they have been brainwashed on this topic (and many others).

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Odlično branje!

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Trumpov predlog glede ameriškega “nakupa” Gaze in kasnejši razvoj “Gaza Riviere” ni nič novega. Naseljenci ZDA imajo to v genih. Iz časov, ko so zemljo etnično očistili indijancev in ga nato prodajali priseljencem.

It’s now almost cute watching old Trump fail:

1. Threatened Denmark to steal Greenland, Denmark immediately allows Russia to repair and maintain Nord Stream

2. Threatened Canada, Canada talks free trade agreement with China

as for Russia & China:

3. Threatened Russia and said he’ll talk to Putin soon. Putin didn’t bite, doesn’t call, Trump now says it’s not urgent

4. New sanctions against China says he’ll have a call with Xi within a day. Xi didn’t call. China imposes painful sanctions on US (rare earth, Google). 

Trump now begs for a call with Xi. Xi has time.

5. Meanwhile Musk destroyed a top tool of US international coercion, now Rubio is trying to restore USAID as government agency.

Total chaos. China does nothing, wins

I forgot one: When the master came to see Trump, he even made him wear a blue tie (blue of all colors, the color of the US democrats) to make clear who’s the boss. Note that Trump always wears a red tie, everywhere. Except when the boss comes to visit.

7. threatened Mexico with tariffs and invasion. Mexico increases border guards and takes out CIA-backed drug cartel leader as a warning shot against the US deep state. Trump is now awefully quiet about Mexico.

Vir: Harald in China via X