Nekaj drobcev, ki jih je treba sestaviti v zgodbo. Vprašanje je le, ali so v Iranu pripravljeni sprejeti Trumpovo “bombaško ponudbo” za ameriški častni umik.

“Contrary to the statements of the lying US President, the nuclear facilities at Fordow were not seriously damaged. Only the above-ground structures, which can be restored, were destroyed.

In addition, everything that could pose a danger to the population was evacuated in advance. There are no reports of any nuclear emissions. Trump’s false claims about the “destruction of Fordow” are refuted by the fact that the attacks were so superficial that there were not even any fatalities at the facility.

But we regard even this US aggression as America’s direct entry into the war. Now Iran will decide how and in what way to respond to the US’s blatant stupidity

6 MOPs reportedly dropped on Fordow. The GBU-57A/B relies on mass, not firepower, 30,000 lbs of tungsten, delayed fuses, inertial guidance, and geological stress sequencing. But Fordow was built for this. Its design assumes MOP logic: curved tunnels, offset caverns, anti-penetration strata, layered redundancy across ventilation, C2, and IR-6 centrifuge chambers. A single hit collapses nothing. 2 breach a tunnel mouth. To truly destroy the core, you’d need tight sequencing, vector convergence, telemetry confirmation, and real-time damage layering. That didn’t happen, at best, they sealed an entrance. Iran reports no core disruption, no enrichment halt, and no internal collapse.

To drop 6 MOPs means either 3 B-2s in simultaneous action or 2 conducting multiple flyovers, deep in contested airspace, without strike escort, in one of the most monitored radar corridors on earth. If Fordow was gone, you’d see craters, electromagnetic rupture, emergency airlifts, seismographs lighting up, and IR flares beneath the mountain. Instead, we got a tweet from an account run out of Northern Israel, yelling “Fordow is gone,” while hawking Gaza’s Most Wanted trading cards.

Tomahawks on Natanz and Esfahan add nothing. Cruise missiles are subsonic, non-penetrative, and designed for surface-level disruption. You don’t decapitate nuclear infrastructure with Block IVs. You flick switches. You scorch perimeters. You stage headlines. A thousand-pound warhead doesn’t cut into fuel halls or disrupt cascade chambers beneath 20 meters of hardened casing. This was a signal to domestic media cycles and Tel Aviv psyops operators.

As of now, there is no SAR confirmation. No crater clustering. No multispectral flash analysis. No underground fire signature. No BDA loop. If Fordow still spins tomorrow, Washington just pulled off the most expensive influence op in bunker-busting history, only to watch Tehran climb the escalation ladder unscathed.

On 20 June 2025, I was on “Judging Freedom” talking with the Judge about Israel’s prospects for “winning” its war against Iran. I argued that Israel cannot achieve its goals in this war and that is why the Netanyahu government and the Israel lobby are putting enormous pressure on the Trump administration to enter the war. Naturally, we also talked about the likely consequences if the United States joined the fight. Just like the Israelis, the Trump administration does not have a magic formula for “winning” this war, which is why the president has delayed making a decision for now. He surely knows that if he pulls the trigger, he would be jumping into the “deep kimchi.” But can he stand up to Israel and its diehard supporters? 

Mearsheimer: Izrael nima teorije, po kateri bi lahko zmagal oziroma dosegel tri cilje: (1) konec iranskega jedrskega programa, (2) sprememba režima ali (3) popolna kapitulacija Irana. Netanyahu je z napadom na Iran skočil v prepad, v katerega sedaj želi obupano zvleči tudi Trumpa.

Iran je od vključno 14. junija (kot povračilo na izraelski napad na Iran) na Izrael izstrelil več kot 400 balističnih in križarskih raket ter več kot 200 dronov. Ta obsežen napad je imel večdimenzionalni namen: simbolni, vojaški in predvsem taktični – izčrpati izraelsko protizračno obrambo.

Faza 1: Izčrpavanje z droni in starimi raketami

Iranska strategija se je začela s t.i. “valom izčrpavanja” – množično uporabo počasnih in poceni dronov tipa Shahed, ter starejših raket kratkega dosega. Ti napadi so aktivirali izraelski obrambni sistem (Iron Dome in David’s Sling), ki je moral za vsakega od teh ciljev sprožiti dragoceno prestrezno raketo.

Taktika je bila uspešna. Po mnenju analitikov je Iran s tem:

• preobremenil izraelske radarje in prestrezne algoritme,
• zmanjšal zaloge izraelskih prestreznikov,
• ustvaril “meglo vojne” za prikritje pravih ciljev.

Faza 2: Hitre rakete prebijejo oslabljeno obrambo

Ko je obramba že delovala na robu zmogljivosti, je Iran sprožil drugi val, sestavljen iz sodobnih balističnih raket (npr. Sejjil, Shahab, Fatah), ki dosegajo visoke hitrosti in lahko manevrirajo. Zaradi zmanjšanih zalog in že obremenjenih sistemov je učinkovitost izraelske protizračne obrambe padla iz približno 90 % na 65 %.

Med zadetimi cilji so bili:

• Haifa Power Plant in Oil Storage Facility (energetska infrastruktura),
• Beersheba Hospital (vojaški komandni center pod bolnišnico),
• Nevatim in Tel Nof Air Base (vojaška letališča),
• Rafael Defense Industries (vojaška industrija),
• Kiryat Gat Industrial Zone, ki vključuje obrate za proizvodnjo polprevodnikov.

Napadi so tako prizadeli tako energetsko kot vojaško infrastrukturo, kar jasno kaže na dvonivojsko taktiko: onesposobiti zmožnosti in ustvariti psihološki in politični pritisk na Izrael.

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Ob običajni kakofoniji informacij je treba biti previden realist. Kakofonija informacij glede ameriškega napada na Iran sega od Trumpove trditve, da se bo v roku 2 tednov odločil glede napada na Iran, preko tega, da Trump ne bo napadel Irana, dokler se Iranci vzdržijo napada na ameriška “vojaška sredstva”, do tega, da je bila odločitev že zdavnaj sprejeta in da bo Trump napad izvršil ta vikend, kot pravi standardno dobro obveščeni Pulitzerjev nagrajenec Seymour Hersh. Glede Trumpa je gotovo samo to, da je prevarant in notorični lažnivec in da ga ima v lasti izraelski lobi (kupili so ga neposredno za 200 milijonov dolarjev donacij in bogve za koliko s krediti, ki jih imajo njegova podjetja pri kapitalu židovskega porekla). In seveda ničemur, ampak prav ničemur, kar pravi Trump ne gre verjeti.

Iranci pa sploh ne. V prvem mandatu je prosil iranskega generala Soleimanija za posredovanje v pogovorih s Katarjem, samo zato da ga je zvabil na čistino, kjer ga je ubila ameriška raketa. V preteklih mesecih se je pretvarjal, da se pogaja z Iranom, da bi njihove voditelje zazibal v spanec. In njihovi voditelji so bili nato presenečeni, ker je v petek, 3 dni pred napovedanim nadaljevanjem pogajanj z Iranom, Izrael s polno močjo napadel Iran.

Torej, je današnja noč, po zaprtju ameriških borz, trenutek za ameriški napad na Iran? Ne vem, zdi se pa logično. Seveda pa utegnejo tokrat biti Iranci bolje pripravljeni na presenečenje, kot so bili prejšnji petek. In iranske hipersonične rakete so najbrž že usmerjene na ameriške baze v Perzijskem zalivu ter letalonosilke in bojne ladje. In bojim se, da v primeru ameriškega napada finančni trgi in trgi z nafto v ponedeljek ne bodo nadaljevali “business as usual”.

This is a report on what is most likely to happen in Iran, as early as this weekend, according to Israeli insiders and American officials I’ve relied upon for decades. It will entail heavy American bombing. I have vetted this report with a longtime US official in Washington, who told me that all will be “under control” if Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei “departs.” Just how that might happen, short of his assassination, is not known. There has been a great deal of talk about American firepower and targets inside Iran, but little practical thinking, as far I can tell, about how to remove a revered religious leader with an enormous following.

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Javna skrivnost zadnjih 50 let je, da ameriške obveščevalne službe kreirajo “resničnost”, ki vam jo servirajo mediji. Kot so že zdavnaj razkrili žvižgači Cie, ima CIA oddelek, ki se ukvarja samo s tem, kako boste dobili servirane določene informacije (denimo dogajanje v Ukrajini, Gazi, Iranu, Venezueli itd.). Napišejo članke, jih posredujejo velikim “tiskovnim” agencijam, kot je Reuters, od njih pa dobesedno prevzame tekst večina nacionalnih in lokalnih medijev na zahodni polobli. Če po nesreči spremljate naš Siol, v njem vsak dan vidite dobesedno propagando ameriških (oziroma izraelskih) obveščevalnih agencij. Če ste kdaj pazljivo primerjali denimo tekste Delovega kolumnista Gabrijelčič Lisjaka, boste v njih našli enake sekvence in oznake, kot ste jih lahko našli v “poročilih” zahodnih medijskih agencij.

Nič ni narobe, če vas to ne moti. Vaša izbira. Vaša izbira, če želite živeti v mehurčku virtualne resničnosti, ustvarjene za vas. Če vas pa moti, pač ne smete spremljati teh mainstream medijev, ker pač širijo propagando, ki jo kreirajo tuje obveščevalne agencije. Twitter (X) je daleč od dobre in neodvisne platforme, toda trenutno je najboljše, kar je na voljo, za manj pristransko obveščenost o globalnem dogajanju.

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Prastara novica je, da vam vsebine, ki jih lahko vidite na družbenih omrežjih, filtrirajo in ciljno ponujajo algoritmi, ki jih nadzorujejo in usmerjajo ameriške obveščevalne agencije. Manj javno je dejstvo, da za njimi stojijo izraelski agenti, ne samo Mossada, pač pa predvsem zloglasne enote 8200. Gre za posebno obveščevalno enoto izraelske vojske, odgovorne za tajne operacije, zbiranje signalnih obveščevalnih podatkov (SIGINT) in dešifriranje kod, protiobveščevalne dejavnosti, kibernetsko vojskovanje, vojaško obveščevalno dejavnost in nadzor. No, “nekdanji” operativci enote 8200 se po aktivni službi v tej enoti kot rak naselijo v vse ključne medije – tako družbena omrežja (glejte spodaj) kot klasične fizične in elektronske medije (naslednji post).

Kontrolirajo pa tudi večino ostalih “kanalov” za elektronske komunikacije, od WhatsAppa in Viberja do najbrž tudi Signala in Telegrama. Nasploh Meta (Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp) – Zuckerberg ! – je prestreljen z agenti enote 8200. Torej karkoli delite ali se pogovarjate na Facebooku, Instagramu in WhatsApp, vam pregleduje, filtrira in beleži izraelska obveščevalna služba. In še več, v primeru ste “oseba interesa”, vašo lokacijo spremlja in deli z drugimi izraelskimi in ameriškimi obveščevalnimi agencijami. Če imate na telefonu eno izmed teh aplikacij, imate na sebi tarčo. Kadarkoli vas lahko eliminirajo. Kot se je zgodilo prejšnji teden iranskim generalom in jedrskim znanstvenikom.

Nič ni narobe, če vas ne moti, da toliko informacij delite z izraelskimi in ameriškim obveščevalnimi agencijami. Vaša izbira. Toda kdor ne želi biti tarča 24 ur na dan, bi moral razmisliti o tem, da te aplikacije izbriše s svojega telefona.

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Najprej standardni zahodni narativ, prevzet iz CNN:

According to the ISIS think tank, “Iran can convert its current stock of 60 percent enriched uranium into 233 kg of weapon-grade uranium in three weeks at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant,” enough for nine nuclear weapons.

That is why Fordow is a major focus of Israel’s attempts to degrade and destroy Iran’s nuclear program. But is it even feasible?

The US is the only country that possesses the kind of bomb required to strike Iran’s Fordow nuclear site, Israel’s ambassador to the US, Yechiel Leiter, said in an interview with Merit TV on Monday.

“For Fordow to be taken out by a bomb from the sky, the only country in the world that has that bomb is the United States. And that’s a decision the United States has to take, whether or not it chooses to actually pursue that course,” Leiter said. But, he added, that wasn’t the only option: “There are other ways of dealing with Fordow.”

Destroying Fordow from the air would be almost impossible for Israel, according to a March report from the UK-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank and would require significant firepower and assistance from the United States.

It would not even be reachable by the US’ GBU-57 massive ordnance penetrator bombs, which only reach about 60 meters deep, according to the RUSI report. And the GBU-57 can only be delivered by US Air Force B-2 stealth bombers, something Israel doesn’t have – even if the US would give it the bombs.

“Even the GBU-57/B would likely require multiple impacts at the same aiming point to have a good chance of penetrating the facility,” said the report.

Other analysts agree, saying, if the US were to try to hit Fordow, it probably couldn’t be done with one bomb.

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