V bistvu je spodnji tvit najboljši povzetek cele zgodbe, ki jo je Trump začinil z resničnostnim šovom. Vendar sta izpuščeni dve ključni stvari:

(1) Izrael je s to vojno razgalil konec svoje tehnološke in vojaške premoči, Iran pa je s to vojno dobil pravico do jedrskega orožja, in

(2) Izrael bo še naprej nadaljeval genocid v Gazi in samo Iran (s Hutijci) ga bo pri tem oviral.

Zato ne pričakujte trajnejšega premirja. Eno so resničnostni šovi, drugo pa strukturni dejavniki, ki se ne spremenijo s Trumpovimi šovi.

Izrael je glede genocida potrebno zaustaviti s popolnimi gospodarskimi sankcijami in s privedbo Netanyahuja pred tribunal ICC.

It seems a ceasefire has been achieved in what US President Trump is now calling the “Twelve-Day War” between Israel and Iran. What motivated the parties involved to accept it?

For the United States, the calculation is fairly straightforward. It viewed the war launched by Israel against Iran primarily as an instrument to improve its negotiating position vis-à-vis Tehran. If Israel succeeded, Iran would be compelled to comprehensively dismantle its nuclear program, renounce its right to enrich uranium on its own territory as guaranteed by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), terminate its ballistic missile program, and sever links with militant movements in the region in a subsequent agreement dictated by Washington.

Washington’s objectives were further demonstrated by its bombing of Iran several days ago. Its attacks were limited to three Iranian nuclear installations, accompanied by threats of a more widespread campaign if Iran retaliated. While Trump at one point identified regime change in Tehran as a desirable outcome he never committed to it, nor instructed the US military to pursue this goal.

As expected, Trump immediately proclaimed the complete obliteration of the three nuclear sites targeted by the US air force and boasted that the Iranian nuclear program had been definitively destroyed and no longer existed. A boast better known as proclaiming victory and going home.

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For years, Israel counted on one thing: that it would always have the smartest weapons in the region. That assumption is now dead.

How Iran’s ‘strategic patience’ switched to serious deterrence

Iran’s retaliatory strikes against Israel were not conducted alone. Strategic partners Russia and China have Tehran’s back, and their role in West Asia’s conflict will only grow if the US doesn’t keep up…

Iran no longer lobs dumb rockets. It builds precision missiles guided by electro-optical seekers, inertial navigation systems, and terrain-matching algorithms.

These systems don’t rely on GPS. They don’t care if the U.S. or Israel tries to jam satellite links. Their guidance comes from inside the missile or from the terrain below.

Iran’s Fateh, Zolfaghar, and Kheibar lines now strike within meters of their target. Even mobile launchers can be pinpointed using EO sensors and BeiDou terminal correction.

BeiDou is China’s answer to GPS. It gives Iran global positioning accuracy without American satellites. Israel can’t intercept that data or shut it off.

Add to that: Russian battlefield data from Ukraine. Iran isn’t just building smarter weapons. It’s learning from live war—the kind Israel hasn’t fought since 2006.

The January 2020 strike on Al-Asad airbase was a warning shot. Iran hit U.S. targets with near-surgical accuracy. No GPS. No American retaliation.

Netanyahu keeps selling Iron Dome to the world. But Dome was built for rockets, not for swarms of kamikaze drones or cruise missiles with optical recognition.

David’s Sling and Arrow cost millions per launch. Iran’s Shahed drones cost tens of thousands. Tehran is winning the cost-per-kill war.

While Israeli defense firms sell upgrades, Iran is building doctrine. Dispersed launch units. Hardened silos. Redundant comms. Everything designed to survive first contact.

China provides optics. Russia provides tactics. Iran provides manufacturing. This isn’t Hezbollah with Katyushas. It’s a regional power with industrial-scale firepower.

Netanyahu still talks like it’s 2010. He warns of uranium enrichment while Iran prepares multi-vector saturation strikes Israel cannot absorb.

Postscript:

The age of Israeli military tech dominance is over. The warhead might say Iran, but the wiring is Chinese. The guidance is Russian-tested. And the target map is already programmed.

Vir: William Huo

Washington sanctioned Iran. Tel Aviv cheered. Beijing cashed in.

The 25-Year Agreement between China and Iran: A Continuation of Previous Policy

For decades, Netanyahu’s grand strategy relied on a seductive lie: that Iran could be boxed in, crippled, and isolated through Western pressure.

That lie collapsed the moment China stepped in. Not just as a buyer of sanctioned oil, but as a strategic partner building Iran’s escape hatch.

The 25-year Iran–China agreement wasn’t just symbolic. It meant infrastructure, joint research, defense cooperation, satellite access, and missile tech transfers.

While Israeli analysts mocked Iran’s outdated missiles, China helped modernize its guidance systems. Russia joined in by operationalizing Iranian drones in Ukraine.

Iran was sanctioned by the West. But it was bankrolled, trained, and networked by the East. The axis of the sanctioned became the proving ground for new warfighting tech.

Netanyahu saw nukes in Natanz but missed the wiring in Bandar Abbas. He warned about centrifuges while Iran built up its drone factories and satellite links.

Bibi bet that Gulf states would keep Iran cornered. Then Beijing brokered peace between Tehran and Riyadh. The Arab-Israeli realignment died in silence.

At every turn, Israel’s “strategic deterrence” turned out to be short-term theatrics dressed up as long-term doctrine.

China didn’t just neutralize sanctions. It gave Iran the technology, financing, and trade routes to turn survival into leverage.

By the time Bibi realized this wasn’t a containment game but a continental realignment, Iran was already part of BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

Postscript:

The sanctions regime was supposed to crush Iran. Instead, it forced Tehran to go east. Now it’s integrated into a rising order while Israel watches its margin of error disappear.

Vir: William Huo

Držite Donalda za besedo in glejte na uro, če sta se Izrael in Iran res prenehala raketirati v 12-iu urah po tem Donaldovem tvitu. In če sta, bo Iran dobil jedrske bombe, Donald Nobelovo nagrado, Izrael pa bo malce manj agresiven navzven.

Po ameriškem napadu na tri iranske jedrske objekte, po iiranski napovedi zaprtja Hormuške ožine in po današnjem iranskem raketnem napadu na ameriško oporišče v Katarju je večina analitikov napovedovala velik porast borznih kotacij nafte in padec na borzah vrednostnih papirjev. Nakar so bili presenčeni, da do tega ni prišlo, pač pa so danes naftne kotacije večinoma celo upadle, večina ameriških borznih indeksov pa je porasla. V čem je misterij?

V bistvu ga ni. Finančni špekulanti so pač spregledali, da je v primeru ameriško-iranskega vojaškega konflikta šlo za hollywoodski teater. Resničnostni šov. ZDA so sicer res s šestimi bunkerskimi bombami bombardirale iranski jedrski objekt Fordow (in s tomahawki tudi objekta v Natanzu in Isfahanu), vendar so več dni pred tem o tem obvestile Iran, da je ta lahko evakuiral osebje in umaknil centrifuge z uranom in jedrsko gorivo. Na objektu v Fordowu razen treh lukenj na površju ni bilo videti nobene resne škode ali uhajanja radioaktivnosti. Trump in Netanyahu sta nato  takoj razglasila zmago po “uničenju iranskih jedrskih zmogljivosti”.

In Iran se je nato predvidljivo moral odzvati na ta ameriški napad (ki je bil seveda v nasprotju z mednarodnim pravom). Odzval pa se je tako, da je poslal nekaj raket nad prazno ameriško vojaško bazo v Katarju, iz katere so v dveh tednih pred napadom po poročanju virov Američani umaknili 40 lovcev. In Iranci so najprej obvestili ZDA o napadu, preden so poslali stare in počasne rakete, da jih je katarska protizračna obramba lahko sestrelila. Kot privezane srnjake, ki so jih nastavljali pred Tita, da jih je lahko uplenil.

Iranci bi seveda lahko poslali svoje hipersonične rakete, ki jih nihče ne zmore sestreliti. Vendar niso. Ker je pač šlo za dogovorjen resničnostni šov, v katerem bi vsi lahko obdržali svoj obraz. Trump pred izraelskimi lastniki Amerike in ameriških politikov, Iran pred celim svetom. Veliko besed, obtožb in groženj ali morda celo povračilnih ukrepov z obeh strani se bo sicer še zgodilo, vendar ni videti, da bi si kdo zares želel eskalacije.

No, vseeno pa je zmagovalec tega resničnostnega šova Iran. V tej operaciji je pridobil pravico do jedrskega orožja (če ga že nima) in še naprej bo raketiral Izrael. Dokler ne poruši ključne izraelske vojaške in gospodarske infrastrukture. V neki fazi se bo iransko vodstvo odločilo prisluhniti izraelskim diplomatskim ponudbam o prenehanju sovražnosti in ameriški obljubi o omilitvi sankcij in prenehalo z raketiranjem Izraela.

Če seveda kdo ne naredi usodne napake in po pomoti ne zadene resnih ciljev… Zaenkrat pa gledamo resničnostni šov.

Predstavljajte si, da v sedanji vojni situaciji vodite Iran. Da ste oseba, ki ima moč odločati o prihodnosti svoje države. V tej situaciji imate glede strateške varnostne situacije vaše države pred seboj tri opcije:

1. Ponovno popustite pod ameriškim pritiskom, ne maščujete se za ameriške napade, sedete za pogajalsko mizo in pristanete na to, da opustite program bogatenja urana. V zameno za delno sprostitev ameriških sankcij. V tem primeru ste še naprej ranljivi pred izraelskim stalnim ogrožanjem vaše varnosti. 
2. Zavedate se, da je posedovanje jedrskega orožja edina kredibilna grožnja Izraelu, da preneha z ogrožanjem vaše varnosti, zato pristanete na ponudbo tretjih držav po posredovanju jedrskih konic. Glede na opcijo 1 tvegate veliko eskalacijo in ameriški napad ter usodo Iraka in Libije, vendar se zavedate, da bo po uporabi prve jedrske rakete, vojaški pritisk na vašo državo bistveno popustil (in se začel diplomatski). Tako kot se nihče ne upa hecati s Severno Korejo. Razen v vicih.
3. Zavedate se, da je posedovanje jedrskega orožja edina kredibilna grožnja Izraelu, da preneha z ogrožanjem vaše varnosti, zato nadaljujete s pridobivanjem obogatenega urana do zadostnih količin in v “tednu ali dveh” (kot pravi izraelska propaganda) izdelate jedrsko bombo in jo testirate. Tvegate veliko eskalacijo in ameriški napad, vendar se zavedate, da bo po prvem testu vojaški pritisk na vašo državo bistveno popustil (in se začel diplomatski).

Za katero opcijo bi se odločili?

Ameriške rakete in “bunkerske bombe”so komajda oplazile iranske zmogljivosti za bogatenje urana. Toda Trump je takoj razglasil zmago, češ da so iranske jedrske zmogljivosti povsem uničene.

Hkrati so Američani signalizirali Iranu, da – če Iran ne bo eskaliral – je s tem ameriška misija končana.

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Nič drugače ni sicer z ostalimi evropskimi politiki in glavnimi mediji. Vsi kot papagaji ponavljajo tekst, ki so ga pripravili v izraelskem Mossadu.

Ko sem bil še mlajši, sem se spraševal, s čim jih držijo za jajca. Zdaj že nekaj časa vem.