Spodaj je zelo dober članek Anne-Sophie Corbeau & Tatiane Mitrove iz SIPA centra na univerzi Columbia o iluzijah, ki si jih delajo v Evropi, da bi nadomestili izpad ruskega plina, ki priteka prek Ukrajine. Azerbejdžan nima zadostnih količin za nadomestitev ruskega plina (na voljo sta 2 bcm, potrebno pa je zagotoviti 14 bcm izadlega plina po koncu 2024) in Azerbejdžan že sedaj sam kupuje ruski plin in ga nato prodaja naprej (po ustrezno višji ceni). Edina varianta za nadomestitev izpada ruskega plina prek Ukrajine je, da bi ga Azerbejdžan kupoval v Rusiji in nato kot svojega prodajal v Evropo, zraven pa bi vsi mižali na obe očesi.
Natanko to sedaj počnejo vsi, tudi Ukrajinci. Gre za mehanizem t.i. virtualnega dvosmernega pretoka, pri čemer plin teče v eno smer (iz Rusije prek Ukrajine v Evropo), Ukrajina odvzame svoj del, vendar ta del formalno kupuje od evropskih trgovcev in razglaša, da je glede plina neodvisna od Rusije. No, tak mehanizem bi lahko uporabljali tudi za uvoz ruskega plina prek Azerbejdžana in se delali, da ne gre za ruski plin. Običajna evropska hipokrizija. Le da je precej dražja, kot če bi pošteno kupovali plin pri osnovnem viru.
European proposals[1] to replace Russian gas shipped via Ukraine[2] with gas from Azerbaijan when current transit agreements with Moscow expire at the end of 2024[3] may be easier said than done.[4] Lack of transparency around the deal has created unreasonable expectations and accusations.[5] While Ukraine, the EU, and Azerbaijan may all support the idea of buying Azeri gas and injecting it into Russian pipelines heading to Europe,[6] the three options to bring that plan to fruition face significant hurdles or require compromises on the goal. Most importantly, Azerbaijan will not have sufficient additional gas supplies in the short term to replace Russian gas volumes, Naftogas talks about “only 2 billion cubic meters [bcm] of the 14 bcm that the EU receives via the Ukraine pipeline” [7] although that could change in the longer term if buyer interest hits a level that spurs investment.
This blog post discusses the benefits of replacing Russian gas with Azeri fuel for Ukraine, the EU, and Azerbaijan, and explores the three options for bringing that fuel to Europe. The piece finds that in the short term the only realistic way to replace the existing volumes of Russian gas would be through swap deals between Azerbaijan and Russia, but this would have only limited benefits in terms of reducing EU dependence on Moscow.
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