Yermakov padec je zgolj simptom širšega geopolitičnega preloma: ko je v očeh ameriških pokroviteljev postal strateško neuporaben, so ga brez obotavljanja odrezali, pri čemer je NABU-jev nenadni napad služil kot natančno izveden signal, da je Washington sklenil začeti čiščenje v Kijevu. Yermakov hitri odstop in patetični poskusi opravičevanja razkrivajo, da je zgolj žrtev procesa, ki ga Zelenski še vedno naivno poskuša nadzorovati, čeprav je očitno, da bo tudi on obredna žrtev ameriške izhodne strategije, Evropi pa bo prepuščeno plačilo politične in ekonomske cene ukrajinske kapitulacije. EU in London panično iščeta grešne kozle, ker bi nenaden konec vojne razkril lastne zgrešene odločitve, medtem ko Washington zahteva tišino in hiter izhod. V tem trikotniku interesov ima Rusija prednost, saj mirno opazuje zahodno razdrobljenost in vztraja pri pogojih, ki temeljijo na realnosti stanja na bojišču.

Toda problem ni ukrajinska kapitulacija. Pa ne zato, ker je bila njena usoda jasna od prvega dneva vojne, v katero jo je pahnila Amerika, pač pa, ker konec vojne prinaša odrešitev za ukrajinsko državo in ljudstvo. Ne, problem je, ker bo konec vojne v Ukrajini razkril razpad celotne konstrukcije evropske politike do vojne, vse laži evropskih politikov ter ceno, ki smo jo v Evropi plačali za ta konstrukt (v obliki uničene industrije, energetskega in inflacijskega šoka) in bodoči davek, ki ga bomo dolgoročno plačevali za ohranjanje ukrajinske opustošene države in v kali korumpirane administrativne strukture pri življenju v naslednjih desetletjih. Zato, da se ne razkrje njihova krivda, se evropski politiki tako krčevito držijo nadaljevanja vojne v Ukrajini v neskončnost.

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Andriy Yermak says he’s “disgusted” by the lack of support after the NABU raid. He shouldn’t be. Anyone who understands how empires operate knows exactly what just happened, the moment you stop being strategically useful, you are not protected — you are erased. And in the eyes of Ukraine’s patrons, Yermak’s usefulness expired the second he became an obstacle to the settlement being shaped behind closed doors.

The choreography of his fall tells the story. NABU, Washington’s precision instrument moonlighting as an anti-corruption agency — doesn’t shatter the life of Zelensky’s most powerful ally unless the script has been approved at a higher altitude. Yermak resigned in hours. No protest. No resistance. Because he understood something Zelensky still refuses to accept, when the Americans decide the purge is necessary, the only question left is who gets thrown first.

Zelensky actually believes that by sacrificing his own accomplices, he can protect himself. He imagines that tossing Yermak overboard will save his own skin. It is the final delusion of a man already circling the drain, the belief that loyalty to the machine will buy mercy from it. He should look into the eyes of Saakashvili.

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The fall of Andriy Yermak –  Zelensky’s fixer, enforcer, gatekeeper, and indispensable ally, isn’t a “corruption scandal.” It’s Washington slapping the table. NABU, the U.S.-trained attack dog of Ukrainian politics, didn’t raid the Presidential Office by accident. It raided to remind Zelensky that the war isn’t his to command, the peace process isn’t his to veto, and the leash around Bankova Street is held in Washington, not Kiev and certainly not European chihuahuas.

Because the real story isn’t Yermak’s resignation. The real story is the West turning on itself over how to end a war Russia has already won.

The fall of Andriy Yermak, Zelensky’s most loyal ally and the de facto power manager of Ukraine, is not a scandal. It is a strike from above. NABU, the U.S.-funded, U.S.-trained anti-corruption bureau, didn’t raid the home and office of Ukraine’s most powerful unelected official by coincidence. And in any other country, his resignation after a corruption raid would be a political scandal. In Ukraine, it’s a geopolitical detonation.

Yermak wasn’t just a chief of staff, he was the shadow architect of the regime, the man through whom every appointment, every oligarchic negotiation, every Western request, and every wartime decision had to pass. And the speed of his resignation makes clear this was less about corruption,  and more about pressure — engineered, timed, and executed by the one actor that can pull such a lever, Washington.

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Brad Setser je v komentarju k nedavni analizi Robina Hardinga v Financial Timesu jedrnato označil kitajski gospodarski model kot enosmeren: Kitajska svetu prodaja izdelke, v zameno pa uvaža le energijo in rude. Gre za zavestno, strateško zasnovano politiko tehnološke avtonomije, industrijske samozadostnosti in globalne izvozne dominacije. Vendar je njegov komentar, da Peking Bruslju in Berlinu “ne pušča izbire”, dvoumen. Če misli na trgovinske ovire, je povsem zgrešen.

Kitajska danes res uvaža skoraj izključno energente, surovine, hrano in majhen del vrhunske tehnologije. Vse ostalo proizvaja sama, bistveno ceneje, hitreje in bolj učinkovito od nas. Izvaža ogromne količine srednje in visoko tehnoloških izdelkov pod lastno blagovno znamko, od elektronike, zelenih tehnologij do električnih avtomobilov, in obvladuje celotne dobavne verige kritičnih materialov. Kitajska je v enem desetletju naredila strateški premik s kombinacijo spremenjene strukture proizvodnje, najbolj naprednih proizvodnih metod in boljše organizacije industrije, kar ji je omogočilo, da pospešeno izriva zahodne proizvajalce tako na domačem in globalnih trgih kot na trgih samih zahodnih držav.

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Ne vem, kje sem živel, da sem šele danes zvečer (po 10+ letih !) naletel na Future Islands.  Izjemna muzika.

Očitno se kolaps v Ukrajini odvija hitreje (oziroma v skladu z naravno evolucijo kolapsa: najprej gredo stvari počasi, nato pa ekspresno), kot sem pisal še popoldne.  Ni več aktualno, koga bodo zaprli prej, saj je vodja predsednikovega urada Yermak sam odstopil. Zdaj je na vrsti Zelenski. Če ne bo prej podpisal kapitulacije, da bi dobil letalsko karto za Tel Aviv.

Iosfina Pascal lays it out with brutal clarity:

Europe’s crisis isn’t “Russia, Russia, Russia.”

It isn’t “disinformation.”

It isn’t “external threats.”

The real threat is the European Union’s own catastrophic leadership.

She exposes the truth:

• The EU failed during COVID
• The EU failed on Ukraine
• The EU failed on energy, industry, and stability
• The EU is hiding behind Russia to avoid accountability
• The EU is collapsing under green fanaticism, censorship, and cultural extremism

Instead of protecting Europe…

They bankrupt their own citizens.

They destroy their own industries.

They silence dissent.

They push gender ideology on children while the continent burns.

And then they point to Moscow and shout: “It’s Russia!”

No.

The blame sits in Brussels.

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Trump očitno lomi odpor Zelenskega. In očitno ga bo zlomil še bolj učinkovito in vehementno, kot je zlomil evropske “pogajalce” glede trgovinskega sporazuma. Vprašanje časa je, kdaj bo Zelenski popustil. Kako hitro bo popustil, se bo videlo po tem, koga bodo zaprli prej: njegovega šefa predsednikovega urada Yermaka ali šefa preiskovalcev (NABU). In naslednje vprašanje po tem bo, v katero državo se bo po zatočišče zatekel Zelenski. No, slednje je bolj retorične narave, saj je Izrael naravna izbira za takšne tipe. Tam ga že čaka njegov največji kompanjon v korupciji Mindich.

Tole je uvod v famozni članek Robina Hardinga v Financial Timesu, ki je ta teden razburkal ekonomsko javnost in ki je podlaga za mojo današnjo kolumno v Dnevniku »Kako preživeti v dobi kitajske prevlade«.

On a recent trip to mainland China, I found myself posing the same question, again and again, to the economists, technologists and business leaders who I met with. “Trade is an exchange. You provide something of value to me, and in return, I must offer something of value to you. So what is the product, in the future, that China would like to buy from the rest of the world?”

The answers were revealing. A few said “soyabeans and iron ore” before realising this was not much help to a European. Some observed that Louis Vuitton handbags are popular and then went on to talk about the export prospects for fast-rising Chinese luxury brands. “Higher education” was another common answer, qualified sometimes with the observation that Peking University and Tsinghua are harder to get into, and more academically rigorous, than anything on offer in the west.

Several of the economists, who had perhaps pondered the issue already, jumped ahead to a different point altogether: “This,” they said, “is why you should let Chinese companies set up factories in Europe.”

It is a train of thought that gives away the real answer to the question. Which is: nothing.

There is nothing that China wants to import, nothing it does not believe it can make better and cheaper, nothing for which it wants to rely on foreigners a single day longer than it has to. For now, to be sure, China is still a customer for semiconductors, software, commercial aircraft and the most sophisticated kinds of production machinery. But it is a customer like a resident doctor is a student. China is developing all of these goods. Soon it will make them, and export them, itself.

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The EU has essentially admitted that it shot itself in the foot.

Due to the introduction of 19 sanction packages against Russia, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have suffered chronic effects.

Tourists and investors have left, trade has decreased, inflation has risen, real estate prices have started to fall, and enterprises cannot obtain loans.