Marko Golob

“The most dangerous illusions are the ones we comfort ourselves with.” (Brian McDonald)

»Ko priznaje, dvaput se kažnjava« (Srbski pregovor«)

Bivši podpredsednik evropske komisije in komisar za podjetništvo in industrijo (European Commissioner for Enterprise and Industry) med letoma 2002 in 2010 Günther Verheugen je v komentarju za Weltwoche dejal (prevod MG):

Ni veliko primerov (v zgodovini), ko bi se politični cilj – namreč spraviti nasprotnika gospodarsko na kolena – popolnoma obrnil proti njegovim avtorjem.

Gospodarska vojna proti Rusiji je eden od teh primerov.

Politika sankcij je predvsem prizadela njihove avtorje, najbolj Nemčijo.

Če je to javno priznal celo tako visok in vpliven predstavnik Evropske skupnosti kot je bil Günther Verheugen, zakaj je bilo potrebna potem vsa ta kolobocija okoli sprejemanja 18. paketa sankcij, brutalen pritisk na branilce zdrave pameti, kot sta madžarski predsednik vlade Viktor Orban in njegov slovaški kolega Robert Fico? Zakaj?

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Obvezno branje za razumevanje dogajanja na tehnološkem bojnem polju med Kitajsko in ZDA. Spodaj je uvod in nato ameriški pristop, v drugem delu pa sledi še kitajski pristop.

A lot of people may be surprised that the biggest market mover for the past few months is not Nvidia, the darling of the race for AI supremacy. The honor goes to a once obscure Nevada-based mining company called MP Materials. While Nvidia stock rose from $136 to $174 year to date, MP Materials went from $16 to $60.

The reason for the meteoric rise is simple – MP Materials is the sole US producer of rare earth, minerals critical to modern high tech production from EV, drone, robotics, wind turbine, semiconductor, to military weaponry.

While its production is miniscule compared to Chinese rare earth miners and its refining capabilities are quite limited, MP Materials has just attracted $400 million investment from Pentagon, which is now its largest shareholder.

The unprecedented US government investment in a private mining company is in reaction to China’s flexing its rare earth dominance in the face of the tariff and tech wars Trump and Biden have waged against Beijing.

US industries, especially the military industrial complex, are running scared that their reliance on Chinese rare earth to power high tech production and military applications are increasingly under stress in the intensifying geopolitical and geoeconomic contests between the two countries.

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Najboljši komentar realnosti moči in pomena EU:

Nikoli ne bom zmogel razumeti, kako Ursule vdL, Kaje Kallas in Marte Kos ni sram nad tem, kar s svojimi dejanji in nedejanji glede izraelskega genocida v Gazi počnejo. Kako je lahko nekdo tako pokvarjen ali tako brezbrižen ob teh grozodejstvih izraelskih oblasti?! Kako je lahko nekomu bolj mar 20 tisoč evrov na mesec od stradanja in pobijanja stradajočih dan za dnem?!

Zelo dobra nit o tem, zakaj se je državam BRICS uspelo izviti iz pasti politilčne nadvlade zahodnih držav. Ključ je v stavi na industrializaciji in tehnološkem razvoju ter neodvisnosti glede ključnih resursov (energenti, strateški materiali). Zahodne države so v pohlepu finančnih lastnikov podjetij izselile svojo proizvodnjo in se deindustrializirale in danes ne proizvajajo večine ključnih izdelkov. To je razlog, da danes vse države Nata skupaj, z vsem vojaškim arzenalom, ki ga premorejo, niso spodobne poraziti Rusije v Ukrajini. Zahodne države so zanemarile strateški razvoj, zanemarile so strateško  načrtovanje, zaradi česar niso one tiste, ki oblikujejo bodoče gospodarske trende. In zahodne države so zanemarile tehnološki razvoj, zaradi česar ni usahnila samo njihova gospodarska moč, pač pa tudi vojaška moč. Če zahodne države niso sposobne osvojiti fizike hipersoničnih raket, so napadalno vojaško jalove, obrambno pa povsem nemočne. Kot nam kažejo tri leta in pol vojne v Ukrajini ali izid izraelsko-iranske vojne.

Prihodnost pripada državam BRICS pod vodstvom Kitajske. Kitajska je izkoristila napake zahodnih držav in prek geonomike počasi oblikuje svet v skladu s svojo vizijo. Brez da bi ji bilo treba postavljati vojaške baze po svetu, brez da bi ji bilo treba odstavljati “neposlušne vlade” širom sveta ali se vpletati v njihove volitve, brez da bi ji bilo treba vojaško napadati druge države, brez da bi ji bilo treba kogarkoli sankcionirati, brez da bi ji bilo treba izstreliti en sam strel. Kitajska modro uporablja geonomiko namesto geopolitike, da zavlada svetu.

Prva stvar, ki jo v EU potrebujemo, sta vizija in strateško načrtovanje. Toda tega s to sestavo Evropske komisije in s to generacijo evropskih politikov ne bomo dobili. Čez 4 leta pa bo Kitajska svetlobna leta pred nami in nedohitljiva, države BRICS+ pa bodo postale prevladujoč gospodarski pol sveta. S tem pa tudi politični in vojaški. Če nekdo raste 5 % na leto, vi pa 1 %, je vse skupaj le še stvar aritmetike razlike med meteorskim gospodarskim vzponom prvega in zatonom slednjega. Ekonomska moč pa determinira politično.

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125 years after the word “geopolitics” was invented, the rules of global security have changed.

Now, what matters more is “geoeconomics.”

Let’s examine this game-changing topic, which will determine winners & losers in the multipolar world.

@Kanthan2030🧵👇

☝️First, some insights from history.

🌏 Although the relationship between geography and politics were understood for centuries, the word “geopolitics” was coined in 1899 by Swedish political scientist Rudolf Kjellen.

💡Later, in 1904, British geographer Halford Mackinder came up with geopolitical theories that profoundly affected how and which regions European empires decided to colonize or control.

👉 In fact, Mackinder’s theory on Eurasia (“heartland”) explains why the West is waging a war on Russia right now or why NATO kept expanding after the end of the Cold War.

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Trump in zahodni politiki dajejo Ukrajini prazne obljube. Zgolj besede brez mesa. Obljube, ki jih ne morejo uresničiti.

Trump deceived again: Europe has big problems sending Patriots to Ukraine  The Patriot SAM from Germany for Ukraine will be ready only in 6-8 months, Bild writes citing a source in the German government.  Initially, it was planned that Washington would transfer air defense systems to Ukraine from its own reserves, and Germany would pay for their replenishment. However, Trump stated that the US Army cannot give up a single unit. Europe must provide air defense from its own arsenals.

Thus, the publication writes, paying for weapons for Ukraine is not enough. Europe must dismantle its own stockpiles and order replacements from the American defense industry. At the same time, Europe is short of air defense. Closed negotiations have been going on for several days about who can help Ukraine.

Currently, according to Bild, a decision is being formed: Switzerland is moving back in the queue for Patriot systems. The first unit will be sent not to Bern, but to Ukraine – at Germany’s expense. But the system is still being finalized by the American company Raytheon and will be ready no earlier than in 6-8 months.

Vir: Simplicius

Tudi zato se je Ukrajini začelo muditi z nadaljevanjem prekinjenih pogajanj z Rusijo. Rusiji pa ne tako zelo. Prvič, ker se Ukrajina ne more nadejati nobene resne pomoči od zahodnih držav v doglednem času (resnici na ljubo ji tudi Patriot protizračni sistemi niso mogli pomagati doslej in ji ne morejo nič bolj pomagati v prihodnje, boljšega napadalnega orožja ne bo dobila in četudi bi ga dobila, ne bi imela uspsobljenih vojakov za upravljanje z njimi). Zahodne države nimajo s čim pomagati Ukrajini, razen da začnejo neposredno vojno z Rusijo. Tega pa si ne upajo tvegati. Ker so pač ruske rakete bistveno hitrejše od zahodnih. In drugič, ker je Ukrajina danes v najslabšem pogajalskem položaju v zadnjih treh letih in pol. Jutri bo še v slabšem. In kot sem v zadnjih letih napisal že neštetokrat – z vsakim dnem vojne je pogajalski položaj Ukrajine slabši in Ukrajina manjša.

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Kot vedno dobro poučeni Seymour Hersh:

In fall of 2023, Ukrainian General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the commander in chief of the country’s armed forces, gave an interview to the Economist and declared the war with Russia had become a “stalemate.” It took three months for President Volodymyr Zelensky to fire him. The general, who is the most popular public figure in Ukraine, was named ambassador to London a month later and has served there with distinction, if quietly.

Zaluzhnyi is now seen as the most credible successor to Zelensky. I have been told by knowledgeable officials in Washington that that job could be his within a few months. Zelensky is on a short list for exile, if President Donald Trump decides to make the call. If Zelensky refuses to leave his office, as is most likely, an involved US official told me: “He’s going to go by force. The ball is in his court.” There are many in Washington and in Ukraine who believe that the escalating air war with Russia must end soon, while there’s still a chance to make a settlement with its president, Vladimir Putin.

There are indications that Zelensky knows what is coming. He has just shifted or fired three officials: the minister of defense, the prime minister, and the ambassador to the United States. As the US official told me, Zelensky “is beginning to read the danger signs.”

What happens next, the official added, in terms of political violence inside Kiev and elsewhere, depends largely “on the degree to which the population has reached the point where they have no other choice. Zelensky will not go willingly but feet first. Herein lies a US internal debate. Smart side says let the Ukrainians sort it out by themselves and not get the CIA involved to seal the deal. So far, good sense drives the policy. But some unnamed leaders are impatient and this will take time—more than fifty days.”

Vir: Seymour Hersh

In ko to rečejo šefi v Washingtonu, se nenadoma vsi mediji čredno zaženejo v Zelenskega in ga raztrgajo. Po tem, ko so ga tri leta in pol branili na vse pretege in mu oproščali naciste, totalitarizem in milijardno korupcijo. Le kdo neki vleče te niti v medijih? 

Mlajše generacije morda tega ne vedo. Problem pa je, da so starejše generacije, ki so to vedele in se tega zavedale, izumrle.