Rules-Based International Order: One set of rules for me, another set of rules for you pic.twitter.com/cTwp8TzVnJ
— Glenn Diesen (@Glenn_Diesen) August 17, 2025
Author Archives: jpd
Evropski odgovor na ameriško – ruski dogovor kot teater absurda
Ta skupna izjava nekaterih evropskih politikov je absolutno obvezno branje v umetnosti iluzije osebkov, ki nimajo nobene pogajalske moči. Ki nimajo za burek. Ki niso bilo povabljeni k mizi, vendar bi radi določali pogoje tistim, ki so za mizo.
Absurdnost teh izjav kulminira na koncu:
Sankcije in drugi gospodarski ukrepi bodo razširjeni na rusko vojaško gospodarstvo, dokler ne bo dosežen “pravičen in trajen mir”
Jao!
Prvič, z 18 paketi sankcij države EU niso niti za ped zaustavile ruske vojske, kaj šele ruskega gospodarstva. Rusko gospodarstvo raste po rekordno visokih stopnjah rasti. So pa sankcije evropsko gospodarstvo povsem zaustavile. In to že tretje leto. Torej, kaj bo naredil 19. paket sankcij? Poslal evropsko gospodarstvo v vzvratno prestavo (recesijo), Rusija pa se bo zaradi tega valjala od smeha in se nehala vojskovati?
Drugič, kaj je “pravičen in trajen mir”? To, da Rusija izgubi to vojno, se umakne nazaj na meje izpred 2014 in da Ukrajini plača 1000 milijard evrov vojnih reparacij? No, good luck pri tem. In povejte, s čim boste to dosegli, če Ukrajina nima več vojakov, evropske države pa ne orožja. Kako lahko v vojni zmagaš brez vojakov in brez orožja?
(samo resne odgovore, prosim)
EU and NATO leaders issued a joint statement after a phone call with Trump:
They stressed that Ukraine must receive firm security guarantees to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity. No restrictions should be placed on its armed forces or cooperation with third countries. Russia cannot hold a veto over Ukraine’s path toward the EU or NATO.
All decisions on its territory will be made by Ukraine itself. Borders cannot be changed by force.
Support for Ukraine will continue, with a pledge to do more to strengthen it in order to end the war and achieve a “just and lasting peace.”
As long as “bloodshed continues in Ukraine, they will maintain pressure on Russia.” Sanctions and other economic measures will be expanded to target Russia’s military economy until a “just and lasting peace” is reached.
Srečanje na Aljaski je bilo “Game Changer”
Sporazum med ZDA in Rusijo daje varnostne garancije Ukrajini
Velika večina ljudi, sploh pa komentatorjev, pozablja, zakaj sta se glede Ukrajine morali najprej dogovoriti ZDA in Rusija. Zato, ker bistvo spora med njima ni Ukrajina, pač pa novo geostrateško razmerje oziroma demarkacijska črta med ameriškim vojaškim vplivom v Evropi in ruskim varnostnim položajem. ZDA so to črto od Billa Clintona naprej potiskale proti ruskim mejam, na koncu (od leta 2008) proti meji Ukrajine (in Gruzije) z Rusijo. Dokler Putin ni rekel “Njet” in poslal vojske najprej v Gruzijo (2008) ter Krim (2014) in v ukrajinske pokrajine, ki mejijo na Rusijo.
Zdaj, ko sta se ZDA in Rusija dogovorili, da ameriški vojaški vpliv ne bo segel do ukrajinsko – ruske meje (da Ukrajina nikoli ne bo v Natu), je šele mogoč dogovor med Ukrajino in Rusijo. O tem, koliko ozemlja bo Ukrajina morala žrtvovati, koliko vojske bo smela imeti in kakšen bo status ruske manjšine v Ukrajini.
Varnostne garancije Ukrajini, o katerih govorijo evropski politiki, Ukrajini ne daje članstvo v Natu, pač pa ta krovni bazni dogovor med ZDA in Rusijo ter ameriško – ukrajinski “mineralni dogovor”.
Po “zgodovinskem srečanju” Trumpa in Putina je mir dobil priložnost
Ja ja, seveda razumem, da bo reakcija nekaj glavnih članic EU sila negativna glede dogovora med Trumpom in Putinom o mirovnem sporazumu namesto o začasnem premirju, o upoštevanju realnosti na bojišču in o tem, da Ukrajina ne bo nikoli postala članica Nata, medtem ko bo Zelenski na jutrišnjem sestanku v Beli hiši kalkuliral in navigiral med vojnim navijanjem evropskih prišepetovalcev na eni in lastno usodo na drugi strani. Toda dejstvo je, da je z baznim dogovorom med Trumpom in Putinom mir v Ukrajini zdaj res dobil priložnost. Obe državi sta se odločili, da sta pripravljeni prenehati se bojevati na ukrajinskem ozemlju in da je osnovni razlog, zaradi katerega sta se začela bojevati (potiskanje Ukrajine v Nato s strani ZDA), odpravljen.
Zdaj je vse odvisno od ukrajinskega vodstva in evropskih politikov, ali so pripravljeni sprejeti, da bo vsled te 3-in-pol letne nesmiselne vojne Ukrajina manjša za eno petino in da bo morala ostati vojaško nevtralna, lahko pa se vključi v EU. Če ti robni pogoji za ukrajinske in evropske politike niso sprejemljivi, bodo pač morali povedati, kakšen je njihov načrt za zmago v tej vojni. Brez ZDA.
Dajmo počakati nekaj dni. Jaz sicer nisem optimist, da se je razum spet povrnil v Evropo.
__________
The summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin was shorter than had been planned. But it was mostly successful.
Trump had urgently needed the meeting. He had pushed for a ceasefire in Ukraine. He had threatened to impose secondary sanctions against buyers of Russia’s oil to press Russia towards that.
But Russia did not budge. Its interest is to eliminate the root cause of the war in Ukraine – the expansion of NATO towards Russia’s borders. A ceasefire would only have paused the war but would not have solved the underlying issue.
For Trump the threat of secondary sanctions had become a trap. Some rather mild addition of tariffs against India had led to a strong backlash. India did not stop buying Russian oil but turned away from the U.S. to endorse Brics, Russia and China. Imposing secondary sanctions against China would have escalated into a trade war with China which the U.S. has no way to win.
The summit created a win for each side.
Trump acknowledged that a ceasefire was not possible and that the war needs to end with an all-encompassing peace agreement:
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump – Aug 16, 2025, 8:46 UTCA great and very successful day in Alaska! The meeting with President Vladimir Putin of Russia went very well, as did a late night phone call with President Zelenskyy of Ukraine, and various European Leaders, including the highly respected Secretary General of NATO. It was determined by all that the best way to end the horrific war between Russia and Ukraine is to go directly to a Peace Agreement, which would end the war, and not a mere Ceasefire Agreement, which often times do not hold up. President Zelenskyy will be coming to D.C., the Oval Office, on Monday afternoon. If all works out, we will then schedule a meeting with President Putin. Potentially, millions of people’s lives will be saved. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
After he had given Putin that part of the cake Trump took his own piece.
In an interview (vid) with Foxnews after the summit Trump was asked about imposing sanctions. He responded: “Well, because the meeting went so well, we don’t have to think about that now.”
There will be no ceasefire to freeze the conflict and there will be no sanctions. Both sides can count that as wins.
The task of ending the conflict was tossed off to Zelensky and Europe:
Without hesitating, Trump said that his advice to Zelenskyy after Friday’s meeting with Putin would be “make a deal.”On Monday Zelenski will be told to give up and to make peace with Russia. European protests against that will be ignored.
Vir: Moon of Alabama
Podnebna znanost teži k temu, da se sistematično moti. Zakaj?
Če sem mislil, da je ekonomska znanost problematična (zaradi problematičnih predpostavk), da je psihologija nagnjena k poneverjanju rezultatov in da več kot dve tretjini rezultatov študij na področju kemije ni mogoče replicirati, kaj naj si potem mislim o bombastičnih napovedih klimatskih znanstvenikov? Da se sistematično motijo, je očitno. Toda zakaj so nagnjeni k tem sistematičnim napakam in bombastičnim napovedim? Komu to koristi?
- 1969: “Everyone will disappear in a cloud of blue vapor by 1989.”
- 1970: “Urban citizens will need gas masks by 1985.”
- 1970: “Decaying pollution will kill all fish.”
- 1970: “An ice age is coming by 2000.”
- 1972: “Oil will run out in 20 years.”
- 1974: “Space satellites show a new ice age is coming fast.”
- 1976: “Scientific consensus: global cooling, famine imminent.”
- 1980: “Acid rain is killing life in lakes.” »
- 1989: “New York’s West Side Highway will be underwater by 2019.”
- 1989: “Rising sea levels will wipe out nations by 2000 if no action is taken.”
- 2000: “Children will no longer know what snow is.”
- 2005: “Manhattan will be underwater by 2015.”
- 2009: “Al Gore predicts an ice-free Arctic by 2014.”
Ukrajinska fronta pred popolnim kolapsom
Ukrajinska obramba se pospešeno sesuva, vprašanje časa je, kdaj bo prišlo do paničnega umika ukrajinske vojske vzdolž celotne južne in vzhodne fronte (od Zaporožja do Kramatorska). Ključno vprašanje za tuje analitike (za poljskega analitika Konrada Muzyka, strojni prevod):
Bi lahko več pomoči Zahoda tukaj kaj spremenilo?
Po mojem mnenju ne. Temeljni problemi, s katerimi se soočajo Ukrajinci, so ukrajinski problemi. To velja za: kakovost poveljevanja, število vojakov na fronti, načine uporabe sil, tako vojaške sile kot brezpilotnih letal itd. [..] Prenos stotin dodatnih raket ATACMS Ukrajincem ne bi spremenil narave te vojne. Navsezadnje za ponovno zavzetje mesta potrebujete pehoto, ki jo podpirajo brezpilotni letalniki in topništvo. Ukrajincem pa primanjkuje pehote, topništvo je dejansko premagano – zahodna oprema ni čudežno zdravilo za vse težave Ukrajine.
Spodaj je dober povzetek trenutnega dogajanja na ukrajinski fronti pred srečanjem ruskega in ameriškega predsednika. Ukrajinski glavni problem trenutno ni pomanjkanje orožja, pač pa kronično pomanjkanje vojakov (kar je seveda glavni mehanizem vojne izčrpavanja, ki ga evropski politiki, ki navijajo za nadljevanje vojne, ne želijo videti; ruske sile načrtno počasi meljejo ukrajinsko vojsko, dokler slednji ne bo zmanjkalo vojakov).
During the last week Russian forces managed to breach into the rear of the Ukrainian defense line:
During the last three days Russian forces achieved a major breakthrough. After the heavy bombardment of Ukrainian positions with over 1,300 FAB bombs Russian detachments moved north of the salient (green) they had built between the semi-encircled cities Pokrovsk and Konstantinivka.
They have reached and breached the well built second Donbas fortification line (in yellow) which had been dug over the last year.
Kako so zahodni politiki in mediji kriminalizirali diplomacijo
Če javnost sprejme ideološke stereotipe, da je vsak konflikt boj dobrega proti zlu ali boj liberalnih demokracij proti avtoritarnim državam, potem vojna postane krepostna in diplomacija izdajalska. Ideološko manihejstvo je tako postalo prekletstvo in poguba političnega Zahoda.
The tragedy of great power politics derives from the international anarchy, which refers to the absence of a central authority in the world. The point of departure in international security studies therefore tends to be the competition for security, as security for one state often results in insecurity for another.
This international system based on international anarchy originated with the Peace of Westphalia in 1648, which laid the foundation for the modern world order. The hegemonic system had broken down, and after 30 years of war, it became evident that there would be no peace through victory by a new hegemon. The Thirty-Year War thus ended with the Peace of Westphalia, which was based on the recognition that peace would depend on a balance of power between sovereign states. Security in the Westphalian system therefore entails mitigating security competition by attempting to establish formats for indivisible security. The Westphalian peace is often blamed for the international anarchy, yet this is not the crisis of our time.
What is often left out is that the Westphalian system relied on recognition of mutual security concerns as a condition for reducing mutual threats as a way to advance indivisible security. The Peace of Westphalia therefore also introduced the foundations for modern diplomacy, which entails dialogue for mutual understanding as the condition for reducing the security competition.
Our politicians and media no longer do this. They do not recognise the security concerns of our opponents, which means that they can no longer reduce the security competition and pursue indivisible security. Those who attempt to understand the opposing side, to place themselves in the shoes of the opponent and have some empathy, are labelled as Putinists, Panda-huggers and apologists for the Ayatollahs. Recognising the security concerns of the opponent has become tantamount to “legitimising” or “supporting” the policies of the opponents, which is seen as an act of treason. The result is that it becomes impossible to pursue indivisible security and peace.
Premoženje ameriških zaveznikov je v lasti ZDA oziroma od zdaj naprej smo mi vsi kolonialni delavci (sužnji) ameriške države
Tole ni niti šala niti ironija, pač pa besede ameriškega finančnega ministra. Pravi, da bo ameriška administracija zdaj s premoženjem ameriških zaveznikov ravnala kot z ameriškim “državnim premoženjskim skladom” (njegove besede) in ga “menedžirala”, “večinoma po presoji [ameriškega] predsednika”, predvsem z vidika, kako naj evropkse države uporabijo svoja sredstva za gradnjo ameriških tovarn in obnovo ameriške industrije.
In da to ni hec oziroma ironija, kažejo zadnja dejanja, s katerimi so se evropske države eksplicitno strinjale:
(1) pristale so na 5 % BDP plačevanja za obrambo (večinoma za ameriško orožje),
(2) pristale so na sramotni trgovinski “dogovor”, po katerem bodo evropski izdelki v Ameriki obremenjeni s 25 % uvoznim davkom, uvoz ameriških izdelkov v EU pa bo carine prost, in po katerem bomo v treh letih kupili za 750 milijard dolarjev ameriških energentov in v ameriška podjetja investirali za 600 milijard dolarjev, in
(3) pristale so, da bodo plačevale za vso ameriško orožje, ki se bo uporabljalo v vojni v Ukrajini.
Drugače rečeno, od zdaj naprej smo mi vsi kolonialni delavci (sužnji) ameriške države. Delali bomo, kar nam rečejo in ameriški državi plačevali, kolikor in v kakšni obliki bo zahtevala. Torej postali smo del fevdalnega oziroma kolonialnega sistema, kot smo ga poznali v času fevdalizma, v času turške nadvlade oziroma v katerem so živele kolonialne države vse do danes.
EU je postala de facto ameriška kolonija in von der Leynova je prva ameriška guvernerka Evrope.
Nekoč se je za kaj takšnega šlo na ulice in v prevrat kolonialnih oblasti oziroma v vojne za neodvisnost.
Ruski pogoji za mir v Ukrajini
The demands:
— Withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Donbas
— Withdrawal of the Russian Armed Forces from Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv regions while maintaining the front line in other directions except Donbas
— Ukraine’s commitment not to join NATO
— Demilitarization of Ukraine and constitutional reform towards a federal system
— Russia wants to conclude a bilateral agreement with the USA without the participation of Ukraine and the EU.
If Ukraine refuses, Putin wants Trump to stop all military aid to Kyiv and even the sale of weapons to Europeans so that they do not transfer them to Ukraine.
DAMIJAN blog 
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