Ključna determinanta  v vsakih pogajanjih je pogajalska moč. To determinira veliko večino končnega izida. Pogajalske veščine so pomembna komponenta, vendar za uravnavanje fines, toda smer izida določa pogajalska moč. In Američani tokrat nimajo dobrih kart.

The Americans and the Iranians are now engaged in armed bargaining where the outside options of both sides determine their bargaining power.

Both sides now know that if Iran can be disarmed, the US has the upper hand; if it cannot, Iran does. The WSJ reported today that Iran’s missile arsenal is vastly larger than previously believed. The timing could hardly have come at a better time for Iran.

They have claimed that they have an inventory of 15,000 ballistic missiles and 45,000 drones. The Israelis claim that Iran has 1,000 MRBMs left, along with thousands of SRBMs (4,000-6,000?). JINSA reports that Iran has fired about 2,200 ballistic missiles.

The Americans concede that we’re at best half way done with the job (assuming constant rates of interception and reconstitution). Meanwhile, the US magazine depth of standoff munitions is also half gone.

We know that the Iranians have reserved their heavier and more powerful missiles for use after they had depleted the interceptor inventories. Meanwhile, the interceptor inventories are practically out in Israel and the GCC states.

So, we’re looking at Iran being in a better position to draw blood if hostilities resume. Of the US and its allies running out of interceptors and magazine depth sooner than the Iranians run out of arrows.

In terms of the balance of precision-strike munitions and depending on the size of the Iranian missile and drone inventories and production rates, the advantage seems to be on the Iranian side.

This means that the outside option of the US to resume the war is poor. It cannot be confident that it will be able to disarm Iran even if it was willing to bear the economic shock. It certainly cannot be confident in the ground incursion options or the terroristic idea that the Iranian civilian population can be bombed into submission.

The ‘all smiles’ arrival footage of the Iranian negotiating team is not just for show. They know they hold the stronger hand. Now they need to give something to JD that he can take home.

Take the win.